Regional and gender-specific analyses give new perspectives for secular trend in hip fracture incidence.
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ABSTRACT: Introduction
Several studies have reported secular trends in hip fracture incidence, but knowledge about the possible causes is limited. We studied potential explanations by examining spatio-temporal epidemiology of the fractures and estimating relative risks between genders.Methods
This observational study was based on all inpatient hospital discharges in 1972-2018 in Finland. We divided the data by gender, 5-year age groups and Finnish sub-regions and estimated gender and age standardized spatio-temporal rates of hip fractures by using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.Results
In 1972, women's hip fracture incidence was 1.2-1.3 times higher in western and coastal Finland compared to eastern and inland areas. Also, women had approximately 1.7 times higher average risk to get a hip fracture compared to men. Today, the hip fracture differences between the areas have converged to insignificant and the relative risk between genders has diminished to 1.2. Age-specific relative risks indicate greater hip fracture risk for younger men and older women, and the women's risk increases beyond the risk of men at age 65 which is ten years later than in the beginning of the study period.Conclusion
Incidence of hip fracture has converged significantly between regions and genders. Especially factors related with socioeconomic development and increased frailty and longevity seem to be important. The hip fracture incidence rate ratio between women and men has systematically decreased in time, and more attention should be paid to hip fracture risk in men in the future.
SUBMITTER: Pekonen SR
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8387269 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:We assessed the incidence of hip fracture and second hip fractures in Taiwan from 2001 to 2012. Age-standardized incidence rates decreased after 2005. However, mortality rate after first hip fracture was substantial compared to second hip fracture rate in a competing risk model.IntroductionThe aim of the study is to assess the incidence rates (IRs) of hip fractures, including changes in trends and medical costs, and second hip fractures in the Taiwanese population.MethodsThe number of hip fractures and the associated medical costs were obtained from the annual report of the Ministry of Health and Welfare, Taiwan, for individuals ?50 years of age. The data of population at risk were retrieved from annual population reports from the Ministry of the Interior, Taiwan. The incidence of second hip fractures was evaluated from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan for insured individuals aged ?50 years from 2001 to 2011 with follow-up until 2013 using a competing risk model.ResultsThe IR for the entire population increased from 332.7 to 336.5 per 100,000 person-years during 2001-2005 and decreased thereafter. This secular change was driven by a decrease in hip fractures for both men and women. The 10-year cumulative incidence rate of second hip fracture was 11.2% (95% CI 11.0-11.5%) in women and 7.9% (95% CI 7.6-8.1%) in men. Adjusted by consumer price index (CPI), the costs of hospitalization due to hip fracture increased from NTD 1.17 billion in 2001 to NTD 1.43 billion in 2012. However, the CPI-adjusted costs of each admission decreased from NTD 74944 in 2001 to NTD 65791 in 2012.ConclusionsSince 2006, the IR of hip fractures has been declining in Taiwan. The 10-year cumulative IR of mortality is substantial for individuals who with first hip fracture.
| S-EPMC5306161 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: More than 20% of the hip fracture patients die within the first year after the incident. Few data are available on the trends in mortality following a hip fracture. The present aim was to study changes in excess mortality after hip fracture from 1978/79 up to 1996/97. METHODS: Data on 5180 hip fracture patients aged ? 50 years, identified in three earlier, well validated, incidence studies from Oslo were used. The studies took place in the two years periods 1978-79 and 1989-89 and in a one year period from 1st of May 1996 to 30th of April 1997. The study was designed as a historic cohort study. Exposure was sustaining a hip fracture in the registration periods. Outcome was death of all causes. Age- and sex-specific one year-mortality rates were provided by Statistics Norway. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated for the three cohorts for each sex and age-group, for the 0-6 months, 6-12 months, 0-1 year, 1-5 years and 5-10 years intervals after fracture. To assess the duration of the excess mortality in hip fracture patients, time-framed Kaplan-Meier curves for consecutive 5-years intervals were conducted for the hip fracture patients and the corresponding background population. Only patients still alive at the start of the time interval were included. One sample log rank tests were used to test for statistical significance. RESULTS: The one-year SMR ranged from 3.64 (2.82 - 4.61) to 4.53 (3.67 - 5.54) in men and from 2.78 (2.39 - 3.19) to 3.60 (3.19 - 4.05) in women. In the 0-6 months interval a reduction in SMR from 1978/79 to 1996/97 was observed in women aged ?85 years. The duration of excess mortality ranged from two years in men ?85 years to more than ten years in men and women aged 65-84 years. CONCLUSION: Excess mortality among hip fracture patients remains high. Over the decades, a reduced excess mortality was mainly seen in the oldest patients, suggesting that specific efforts intending to improve prevention and treatment of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures in the youngest elderly are required.
| S-EPMC3610125 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThe incidence of gout in the UK appears to have declined since 2013; however, whether such a trend occurred across participants born in different years (ie, birth cohort) is unknown. We aimed to examine the effects of the birth cohort on gout incidence using an age-period-cohort (APC) model.DesignCross-sectional study.SettingNationwide data from the UK primary care database.ParticipantsIndividuals between 30 and 89 years of age were included. We excluded individuals who had gout history when entering the database and individuals with less than 1 year of continuous follow-up between 1 January 1999 and 31 December 2019.Primary and secondary outcome measuresGout was identified using READ codes assigned by general practitioners. The incidence of gout between 1999-2013 and 2011-2019 was analysed with APC model.ResultsThe incidence of gout between 1999 and 2013 increased with birth cohorts. Compared with those born in 1949-1953 (reference), the age-adjusted and period-adjusted rate ratios (RRs) of incident gout increased from 0.39 (95% CI 0.34 to 0.46) in participants born in 1910-1914 to 2.36 (95% CI 2.09 to 2.66) in participants born in 1979-1983 (p for trend <0.001). In contrast, the incidence of gout between 2011 and 2019 decreased with birth cohorts. Compared with those born in 1949-1953 (reference), the age-adjusted and period-adjusted RRs of incident gout declined from 2.75 (95% CI 2.30 to 3.28) in participants born in 1922-1926 to 0.75 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.87) in participants born in 1976-1980 but then increased slightly to 0.95 (95% CI 0.77 to 1.17) in participants born in 1985-1989.ConclusionsThe gout incidence between 1999 and 2013 in the UK increased with the birth cohorts and then decreased between 2011 and 2019 except for those born after 1980. Future monitoring is needed to help identify aetiological factors and guide preventive and treatment strategies for gout.
| S-EPMC10826541 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objective:Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in China, and contriving a long-term forecast is a useful aid for better launching prevention initiatives. Regrettably, such a forecasting method with robust and accurate performance is still lacking. Here, we aim to investigate its potential of the error-trend-seasonal (ETS) framework through a series of comparative experiments to analyze and forecast its secular epidemic seasonality and trends of TB incidence in China. Methods:We collected the TB incidence data from January 1997 to August 2019, and then partitioning the data into eight different training and testing subsamples. Thereafter, we constructed the ETS and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models based on the training subsamples, and multiple performance indices including the mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percentage error, root-mean-squared error, and mean error rate were adopted to assess their simulation and projection effects. Results:In the light of the above performance measures, the ETS models provided a pronounced improvement for the long-term seasonality and trend forecasting in TB incidence rate over the SARIMA models, be it in various training or testing subsets apart from the 48-step ahead forecasting. The descriptive results to the data revealed that TB incidence showed notable seasonal characteristics with predominant peaks of spring and early summer and began to be plunging at on average 3.722% per year since 2008. However, this rate reduced to 2.613% per year since 2015 and furthermore such a trend would be predicted to continue in years ahead. Conclusion:The ETS framework has the ability to conduct long-term forecasting for TB incidence, which may be beneficial for the long-term planning of the TB prevention and control. Additionally, considering the predicted dropping rate of TB morbidity, more particular strategies should be formulated to dramatically accelerate progress towards the goals of the End TB Strategy.
| S-EPMC7062399 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:There has been a gender difference in adolescents' lifetime smoking prevalence trends over the last 10?years. This study aimed to explain the gender differential secular trend in adolescents' lifetime smoking prevalence using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and suggests possible causes for this trend, including Korean tobacco control policies during the last 10?years. METHODS:We utilized the 2006-2017 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey enrolling grades 7 to 12. Using year of survey and year of entry into middle school, we classified 859,814 students who had ever smoked into 6 age groups, 12 periods, and 17 school admission cohorts. Using APC analysis with the intrinsic estimator method, the effects of age, period, and school admission cohort on lifetime smoking prevalence were analyzed according to gender. RESULTS:Overall, there was a similar tendency of all the three effects on lifetime smoking prevalence between genders: an increasing age effect with grade, negative period effect with survey period, and similar pattern of school admission cohort groups. However, compared to boys, girls experienced reduction in the increasing age effect in the 12th grade, consistent and steeper decreasing trend in the period effect from 2006 to 2016, and shorter and lower school admission cohort effect. CONCLUSIONS:Gender differential response to chronological changes in lifetime smoking prevalence was measured by the APC effect, which affected the gender differential secular trend in lifetime smoking prevalence. Therefore, considering the APC effect could help us understand the trend in smoking rates, as well as the contextual factors that affect it.
| S-EPMC6815049 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHip fractures are associated with significant morbidity and mortality in the nursing home. Our objective was to describe the incidence rate (IR) of hip fracture according to age, sex, and race in a nationwide sample of long-stay nursing home residents.MethodsUsing 2007-2010 Medicare claims data linked with the Minimum Data Set, we identified 892,837 long-stay residents (≥100 days in the same nursing facility) between May 1, 2007 and April 30, 2008. Hip fractures were defined using Part A diagnostic codes (ICD-9). Residents were followed from the date they became a long-stay resident until the first event of death, discharge, hip fracture, or 2 years of follow-up.ResultsMean age was 84 years (range 65-113 years), and 74.5% were women. 83.9% were white and 12.0% were black. The overall IR of hip fracture was 2.3/100 person years. The IR was similar in men and women across age groups. The IR of hip fracture was highest in Native Americans aged 85 years or older (3.7/100 person years), in whites (2.6/100 person years), and during the first 100 days of institutionalization (2.7/100 person years). IRs of hip fracture were lowest in blacks (1.3/100 person years).ConclusionsIn nursing home residents surviving 100 days or more in a facility, the incidence of hip fracture is high, particularly among older white, Native American, and newly admitted residents. This is the first nationwide study to provide sex- and age-specific estimates among U.S. nursing home residents, and it underscores the magnitude of the problem.
| S-EPMC4978364 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAntibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines.MethodsWe did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series.FindingsPrescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], p<0·0001). Starting in March, 2008, the number of cases of infective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, p<0·0001). By March, 2013, 35 more cases per month were reported than would have been expected had the previous trend continued. This increase in the incidence of infective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk.InterpretationAlthough our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis have fallen substantially and the incidence of infective endocarditis has increased significantly in England since introduction of the 2008 NICE guidelines.FundingHeart Research UK, Simplyhealth, and US National Institutes of Health.
| S-EPMC5599216 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceIn adults undergoing hip fracture surgery, regional anesthesia may reduce postoperative delirium, but there is uncertainty about its effectiveness.ObjectiveTo investigate, in older adults undergoing surgical repair for hip fracture, the effects of regional anesthesia on the incidence of postoperative delirium compared with general anesthesia.Design, setting, and participantsA randomized, allocation-concealed, open-label, multicenter clinical trial of 950 patients, aged 65 years and older, with or without preexisting dementia, and a fragility hip fracture requiring surgical repair from 9 university teaching hospitals in Southeastern China. Participants were enrolled between October 2014 and September 2018; 30-day follow-up ended November 2018.InterventionsPatients were randomized to receive either regional anesthesia (spinal, epidural, or both techniques combined with no sedation; n = 476) or general anesthesia (intravenous, inhalational, or combined anesthetic agents; n = 474).Main outcomes and measuresPrimary outcome was incidence of delirium during the first 7 postoperative days. Secondary outcomes analyzed in this article include delirium severity, duration, and subtype; postoperative pain score; length of hospitalization; 30-day all-cause mortality; and complications.ResultsAmong 950 randomized patients (mean age, 76.5 years; 247 [26.8%] male), 941 were evaluable for the primary outcome (6 canceled surgery and 3 withdrew consent). Postoperative delirium occurred in 29 (6.2%) in the regional anesthesia group vs 24 (5.1%) in the general anesthesia group (unadjusted risk difference [RD], 1.1%; 95% CI, -1.7% to 3.8%; P = .48; unadjusted relative risk [RR], 1.2 [95% CI, 0.7 to 2.0]; P = .57]). Mean severity score of delirium was 23.0 vs 24.1, respectively (unadjusted difference, -1.1; 95% CI, -4.6 to 3.1). A single delirium episode occurred in 16 (3.4%) vs 10 (2.1%) (unadjusted RD, 1.1%; 95% CI, -1.7% to 3.9%; RR, 1.6 [95% CI, 0.7 to 3.5]). Hypoactive subtype in 11 (37.9%) vs 5 (20.8%) (RD, 11.5; 95% CI, -11.0% to 35.7%; RR, 2.2 [95% CI, 0.8 to 6.3]). Median worst pain score was 0 (IQR, 0 to 20) vs 0 (IQR, 0 to 10) (difference 0; 95% CI, 0 to 0). Median length of hospitalization was 7 days (IQR, 5 to 10) vs 7 days (IQR, 6 to 10) (difference 0; 95% CI, 0 to 0). Death occurred in 8 (1.7%) vs 4 (0.9%) (unadjusted RD, -0.8%; 95% CI, -2.2% to 0.7%; RR, 2.0 [95% CI, 0.6 to 6.5]). Adverse events were reported in 106 episodes in the regional anesthesia group and 102 in the general anesthesia group; the most frequently reported adverse events were nausea and vomiting (47 [44.3%] vs 34 [33.3%]) and postoperative hypotension (13 [12.3%] vs 10 [9.8%]).Conclusions and relevanceIn patients aged 65 years and older undergoing hip fracture surgery, regional anesthesia without sedation did not significantly reduce the incidence of postoperative delirium compared with general anesthesia.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02213380.
| S-EPMC8689436 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hip fracture patients often display an acute confusional state (delirium) which is associated with worse outcomes. In this observational study, we found that co-management of hip fracture patients by a multidisciplinary team including a geriatrician and an orthopaedic surgeon could reduce the incidence of delirium.IntroductionDelirium after hip fracture is common and is associated with negative outcomes. We investigated if orthogeriatric co-management reduced the incidence of delirium in hip fracture patients.MethodsIn this single-centre, prospective observational study, we compared the incidence of delirium and subsyndromal delirium (SSD) before (usual care group, n = 94) and after (orthogeriatric group, n = 103) the introduction of orthogeriatric co-management as an integrated care model. The outcome measure 'no delirium/SSD/delirium' was treated as an ordinal variable and analysed using the chi-squared test and multivariable ordinal logistic regression.ResultsThe groups had similar baseline characteristics except for a higher proportion of patients with pre-existing cognitive impairment in the usual care group (51% vs. 37%, p = 0.045). Fewer patients in the orthogeriatric group developed SSD or delirium (no delirium: 59% vs. 40%/SSD: 6% vs. 13%/delirium: 35% vs. 47%; p = 0.021). The number needed to treat (NNT) to avoid one case of SSD or delirium was 5.3 (95% CI: 3.1 to 19.7). In a multivariable analysis adjusted for age, sex, ASA class, pre-existing cognitive impairment, time to surgery, type of surgery, and medical or surgical complications, the odds ratio for the development of SSD/delirium was lower in the orthogeriatric group (OR = 0.46, 95% CI: 0.23-0.89, p = 0.023).ConclusionOrthogeriatric co-management as an integrated care model reduced the incidence of SSD/delirium in hip fracture patients.
| S-EPMC8563591 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:It is known that mortality after hip fracture increases compared to the general population; the trend in mortality is a controversial issue. The objective of this study is to examine incidence, trends, and factors associated with mortality in patients with osteoporotic hip fractures. METHODS:This is a retrospective cohort study that uses the Registry for Hospital Discharges of the National Health System of our hospital. Patients older than 45 having an osteoporotic hip fracture between 1999 and 2015 were identified. Demographic data and comorbidities were obtained. A survival analysis was performed (Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier). Incidence rate, standardized death rate (SDR), trend (Poisson regression), and risk (hazard ratio) were calculated. RESULTS:During 1999-2015, in our hospital, there were a total of 3992 patients admitted due to osteoporotic hip fracture. Out of these 3992 patients, 3109 patients (77.9%) were women with an average age of 84.47 years (SD 8.45) and 803 (22.1%) were men with an average age of 81.64 years (SD 10.08). The cumulative incidence of mortality was 69.38%. The cumulative mortality rate for 12 months was 33%. The annual mortality was 144.9/1000 patients/year. The 1-year mortality rate increased significantly by 2% per year (IRR 1.020, CI95% 1.008-1.033). The median overall survival was 886 days (CI95% 836-951). The probability of mortality density for a period of 10 years following a hip fracture was 16% for women and 25% for men (first 90 days). The SDR was 8.3 (CI95% 7.98-8.59). Variables that showed statistically significant association with mortality were aged over 75, masculine, institutionalization, mild to severe liver disease, chronic kidney disease, COPD, dementia, heart failure, diabetes, the Charlson Index > 2 , presence of vision disorders and hearing impairment, incontinence, and Downton scale. CONCLUSIONS:For the last 17 years, an increase of mortality for patients with hip fracture and a higher mortality rate in men than in women were observed. Institutionalization combined with comorbidities is associated with a higher mortality.
| S-EPMC6610901 | biostudies-other