Problems with Using Polygenic Scores to Select Embryos.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Turley P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8387884 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Offspring resemble their parents for both genetic and environmental reasons. Understanding the relative magnitude of these alternatives has long been a core interest in behavioral genetics research, but traditional designs, which compare phenotypic covariances to make inferences about unmeasured genetic and environmental factors, have struggled to disentangle them. Recently, Kong et al. (2018) showed that by correlating offspring phenotypic values with the measured polygenic score of parents' nontransmitted alleles, one can estimate the effect of "genetic nurture"-a type of passive gene-environment covariation that arises when heritable parental traits directly influence offspring traits. Here, we instantiate this basic idea in a set of causal models that provide novel insights into the estimation of parental influences on offspring. Most importantly, we show how jointly modeling the parental polygenic scores and the offspring phenotypes can provide an unbiased estimate of the variation attributable to the environmental influence of parents on offspring, even when the polygenic score accounts for a small fraction of trait heritability. This model can be further extended to (a) account for the influence of different types of assortative mating, (b) estimate the total variation due to additive genetic effects and their covariance with the familial environment (i.e., the full genetic nurture effect), and (c) model situations where a parental trait influences a different offspring trait. By utilizing structural equation modeling techniques developed for extended twin family designs, our approach provides a general framework for modeling polygenic scores in family studies and allows for various model extensions that can be used to answer old questions about familial influences in new ways.
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Project description:Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified at least 10 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) risk. Most of these SNPs are common variants with small to moderate effect sizes. Here we assessed the combined genetic effects of these variants on PTC risk by using summarized GWAS results to build polygenic risk score (PRS) models in three PTC study groups from Ohio (1,544 patients and 1,593 controls), Iceland (723 patients and 129,556 controls), and the United Kingdom (534 patients and 407,945 controls). A PRS based on the 10 established PTC SNPs showed a stronger predictive power compared with the clinical factors model, with a minimum increase of area under the receiver-operating curve of 5.4 percentage points (P ≤ 1.0 × 10-9). Adding an extended PRS based on 592,475 common variants did not significantly improve the prediction power compared with the 10-SNP model, suggesting that most of the remaining undiscovered genetic risk in thyroid cancer is due to rare, moderate- to high-penetrance variants rather than to common low-penetrance variants. Based on the 10-SNP PRS, individuals in the top decile group of PRSs have a close to sevenfold greater risk (95% CI, 5.4-8.8) compared with the bottom decile group. In conclusion, PRSs based on a small number of common germline variants emphasize the importance of heritable low-penetrance markers in PTC.
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Project description:The current study focused on longitudinal effects of genetics and parental behaviors and their interplay on externalizing behaviors in a panel study following individuals from adolescence to young adulthood. The nationally representative sample of Add Health participants of European ancestry included N = 4142 individuals, measured on three occasions. Parenting was operationalized as experiences with child maltreatment and maternal closeness. Externalizing problems were operationalized as alcohol use, cannabis use, and antisocial behaviors. Genetic effects were operationalized as a polygenic score (PGS) of risky behaviors. The results showed significant effects for child maltreatment, maternal closeness, and PGS, above and beyond other factors and previous levels of externalizing behaviors. Furthermore, maternal closeness was found to negatively correlate with PGS. No significant interaction effects of parenting and PGS were found. The results underscore the joint independent effects of parenting and genetics on the change in externalizing behaviors from adolescence to young adulthood.
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Project description:Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have revealed that many traits are highly polygenic, in that their within-population variance is governed, in part, by small-effect variants at many genetic loci. Standard population-genetic methods for inferring evolutionary history are ill-suited for polygenic traits: when there are many variants of small effect, signatures of natural selection are spread across the genome and are subtle at any one locus. In the last several years, various methods have emerged for detecting the action of natural selection on polygenic scores, sums of genotypes weighted by GWAS effect sizes. However, most existing methods do not reveal the timing or strength of selection. Here, we present a set of methods for estimating the historical time course of a population-mean polygenic score using local coalescent trees at GWAS loci. These time courses are estimated by using coalescent theory to relate the branch lengths of trees to allele-frequency change. The resulting time course can be tested for evidence of natural selection. We present theory and simulations supporting our procedures, as well as estimated time courses of polygenic scores for human height. Because of its grounding in coalescent theory, the framework presented here can be extended to a variety of demographic scenarios, and its usefulness will increase as both GWAS and ancestral-recombination-graph inference continue to progress.
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Project description:Biological, genetic, and socio-demographic factors are all important in explaining reproductive behavior, yet these factors are typically studied in isolation. In this study, we explore an innovative sociogenomic approach, which entails including key socio-demographic (marriage, education, occupation, religion, cohort) and genetic factors related to both behavioral [age at first birth (AFB), number of children ever born (NEB)] and biological fecundity-related outcomes (endometriosis, age at menopause and menarche, polycystic ovary syndrome, azoospermia, testicular dysgenesis syndrome) to explain childlessness. We examine the association of all sets of factors with childlessness as well as the interplay between them. We derive polygenic scores (PGS) from recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and apply these in the Health and Retirement Study (N = 10,686) and Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (N = 8,284). Both socio-demographic and genetic factors were associated with childlessness. Whilst socio-demographic factors explain 19-46% in childlessness, the current PGS explains <1% of the variance, and only PGSs from large GWASs are related to childlessness. Our findings also indicate that genetic and socio-demographic factors are not independent, with PGSs for AFB and NEB related to education and age at marriage. The explained variance by polygenic scores on childlessness is limited since it is largely a behavioral trait, with genetic explanations expected to increase somewhat in the future with better-powered GWASs. As genotyping of individuals in social science surveys becomes more prevalent, the method described in this study can be applied to other outcomes.
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Project description:BackgroundPolygenic risk scores (PRS) are valuable to translate the results of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) into clinical practice. To date, most GWAS have been based on individuals of European-ancestry leading to poor performance in populations of non-European ancestry.ResultsWe introduce the polygenic transcriptome risk score (PTRS), which is based on predicted transcript levels (rather than SNPs), and explore the portability of PTRS across populations using UK Biobank data.ConclusionsWe show that PTRS has a significantly higher portability (Wilcoxon p=0.013) in the African-descent samples where the loss of performance is most acute with better performance than PRS when used in combination.
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Project description:Bipolar disorder (BD) has high clinical heterogeneity, frequent psychiatric comorbidities, and elevated suicide risk. To determine genetic differences between common clinical sub-phenotypes of BD, we performed a systematic polygenic risk score (PRS) analysis using multiple PRSs from a range of psychiatric, personality, and lifestyle traits to dissect differences in BD sub-phenotypes in two BD cohorts: the Mayo Clinic BD Biobank (N?=?968) and Genetic Association Information Network (N?=?1001). Participants were assessed for history of psychosis, early-onset BD, rapid cycling (defined as four or more episodes in a year), and suicide attempts using questionnaires and the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV. In a combined sample of 1969 bipolar cases (45.5% male), those with psychosis had higher PRS for SCZ (OR?=?1.3 per S.D.; p?=?3e-5) but lower PRSs for anhedonia (OR?=?0.87; p?=?0.003) and BMI (OR?=?0.87; p?=?0.003). Rapid cycling cases had higher PRS for ADHD (OR?=?1.23; p?=?7e-5) and MDD (OR?=?1.23; p?=?4e-5) and lower BD PRS (OR?=?0.8; p?=?0.004). Cases with a suicide attempt had higher PRS for MDD (OR?=?1.26; p?=?1e-6) and anhedonia (OR?=?1.22; p?=?2e-5) as well as lower PRS for educational attainment (OR?=?0.87; p?=?0.003). The observed novel PRS associations with sub-phenotypes align with clinical observations such as rapid cycling BD patients having a greater lifetime prevalence of ADHD. Our findings confirm that genetic heterogeneity contributes to clinical heterogeneity of BD and consideration of genetic contribution to psychopathologic components of psychiatric disorders may improve genetic prediction of complex psychiatric disorders.
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Project description:MotivationIdentifying sample mix-ups in biobanks is essential to allow the repurposing of genetic data for clinical pharmacogenetics. Pharmacogenetic advice based on the genetic information of another individual is potentially harmful. Existing methods for identifying mix-ups are limited to datasets in which additional omics data (e.g. gene expression) is available. Cohorts lacking such data can only use sex, which can reveal only half of the mix-ups. Here, we describe Idéfix, a method for the identification of accidental sample mix-ups in biobanks using polygenic scores.ResultsIn the Lifelines population-based biobank, we calculated polygenic scores (PGSs) for 25 traits for 32 786 participants. We then applied Idéfix to compare the actual phenotypes to PGSs, and to use the relative discordance that is expected for mix-ups, compared to correct samples. In a simulation, using induced mix-ups, Idéfix reaches an AUC of 0.90 using 25 polygenic scores and sex. This is a substantial improvement over using only sex, which has an AUC of 0.75. Subsequent simulations present Idéfix's potential in varying datasets with more powerful PGSs. This suggests its performance will likely improve when more highly powered GWASs for commonly measured traits will become available. Idéfix can be used to identify a set of high-quality participants for whom it is very unlikely that they reflect sample mix-ups, and for these participants we can use genetic data for clinical purposes, such as pharmacogenetic profiles. For instance, in Lifelines, we can select 34.4% of participants, reducing the sample mix-up rate from 0.15% to 0.01%.Availabilityand implementationIdéfix is freely available at https://github.com/molgenis/systemsgenetics/wiki/Idefix. The individual-level data that support the findings were obtained from the Lifelines biobank under project application number ov16_0365. Data is made available upon reasonable request submitted to the LifeLines Research office (research@lifelines.nl, https://www.lifelines.nl/researcher/how-to-apply/apply-here).Supplementary informationSupplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
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Project description:We aim to determine whether ischemic stroke(IS)-related PRSs are also associated with and further predict 3-year all-cause mortality. 1756 IS patients with European ancestry were randomly split into training (n = 1226) and testing (n = 530) groups with 3-year post-event observations. Univariate Cox proportional hazards regression model (CoxPH) was used for primary screening of individual prognostic PRSs. Only the significantly associated PRSs and clinical risk factors with the same direction for a causal relationship with IS were used to construct a multivariate CoxPH. Feature selection was conducted by the LASSO method. After feature selection, a prediction model with 11 disease-associated pathway-specific PRSs outperformed the base model, as demonstrated by a higher concordance index (0.751, 95%CI [0.693-0.809] versus 0.729, 95%CI [0.676-0.782]) in the testing sample. A PRS derived from endothelial cell apoptosis showed independent predictability in the multivariate CoxPH (Hazard Ratio = 1.193 [1.027-1.385], p = 0.021). These PRSs fine-tuned the model by better stratifying high, intermediate, and low-risk groups. Several pathway-specific PRSs were associated with clinical risk factors in an age-dependent manner and further confirmed some known etiologies of IS and all-cause mortality. In conclusion, Pathway-specific PRSs for IS are associated with all-cause mortality, and the integrated multivariate risk model provides prognostic value in this context.
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Project description:Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) for AD offer unique possibilities for reliable identification of individuals at high and low risk of AD. However, there is little agreement in the field as to what approach should be used for genetic risk score calculations, how to model the effect of APOE, what the optimal p-value threshold (pT) for SNP selection is and how to compare scores between studies and methods. We show that the best prediction accuracy is achieved with a model with two predictors (APOE and PRS excluding APOE region) with pT<0.1 for SNP selection. Prediction accuracy in a sample across different PRS approaches is similar, but individuals' scores and their associated ranking differ. We show that standardising PRS against the population mean, as opposed to the sample mean, makes the individuals' scores comparable between studies. Our work highlights the best strategies for polygenic profiling when assessing individuals for AD risk.
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