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High-Efficiency Machine Learning Method for Identifying Foodborne Disease Outbreaks and Confounding Factors.

ABSTRACT: The China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment (CFSA) uses the Foodborne Disease Monitoring and Reporting System (FDMRS) to monitor outbreaks of foodborne diseases across the country. However, there are problems of underreporting or erroneous reporting in FDMRS, which significantly increase the cost of related epidemic investigations. To solve this problem, we designed a model to identify suspected outbreaks from the data generated by the FDMRS of CFSA. In this study, machine learning models were used to fit the data. The recall rate and F1-score were used as evaluation metrics to compare the classification performance of each model. Feature importance and pathogenic factors were identified and analyzed using tree-based and gradient boosting models. Three real foodborne disease outbreaks were then used to evaluate the best performing model. Furthermore, the SHapley Additive exPlanation value was used to identify the effect of features. Among all machine learning classification models, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model achieved the best performance, with the highest recall rate and F1-score of 0.9699 and 0.9582, respectively. In terms of model validation, the model provides a correct judgment of real outbreaks. In the feature importance analysis with the XGBoost model, the health status of the other people with the same exposure has the highest weight, reaching 0.65. The machine learning model built in this study exhibits high accuracy in recognizing foodborne disease outbreaks, thus reducing the manual burden for medical staff. The model helped us identify the confounding factors of foodborne disease outbreaks. Attention should be paid not only to the health status of those with the same exposure but also to the similarity of the cases in time and space.

SUBMITTER: Zhang P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8390778 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:AimRacial disparities in opioid use disorder (OUD) management exist, however, and there is limited research on factors that influence opioid cessation in different population groups.MethodsWe employed multiple machine learning prediction algorithms least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, random forest, deep neural network, and support vector machine to assess factors associated with ceasing opioid use in a sample of 1,192 African Americans (AAs) and 2,557 individuals of European ancestry (EAs) who met Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th Edition criteria for OUD. Values for nearly 4,000 variables reflecting demographics, alcohol and other drug use, general health, non-drug use behaviors, and diagnoses for other psychiatric disorders, were obtained for each participant from the Semi-Structured Assessment for Drug Dependence and Alcoholism, a detailed semi-structured interview.ResultsSupport vector machine models performed marginally better on average than other machine learning methods with maximum prediction accuracies of 75.4% in AAs and 79.4% in EAs. Subsequent stepwise regression considered the 83 most highly ranked variables across all methods and models and identified less recent cocaine use (AAs: odds ratio (OR) = 1.82, P = 9.19 × 10-5; EAs: OR = 1.91, P = 3.30 × 10-15), shorter duration of opioid use (AAs: OR = 0.55, P = 5.78 × 10-6; EAs: OR = 0.69, P = 3.01 × 10-7), and older age (AAs: OR = 2.44, P = 1.41 × 10-12; EAs: OR = 2.00, P = 5.74 × 10-9) as the strongest independent predictors of opioid cessation in both AAs and EAs. Attending self-help groups for OUD was also an independent predictor (P < 0.05) in both population groups, while less gambling severity (OR = 0.80, P = 3.32 × 10-2) was specific to AAs and post-traumatic stress disorder recovery (OR = 1.93, P = 7.88 × 10-5), recent antisocial behaviors (OR = 0.64, P = 2.69 × 10-3), and atheism (OR = 1.45, P = 1.34 × 10-2) were specific to EAs. Factors related to drug use comprised about half of the significant independent predictors in both AAs and EAs, with other predictors related to non-drug use behaviors, psychiatric disorders, overall health, and demographics.ConclusionsThese proof-of-concept findings provide avenues for hypothesis-driven analysis, and will lead to further research on strategies to improve OUD management in EAs and AAs.

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High-Efficiency Machine Learning Method for Identifying Foodborne Disease Outbreaks and Confounding Factors.

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