Dataset Information

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence Beyond Milan Criteria After Resection: Validation of a Clinical Risk Score in an International Cohort.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

This study aims to validate a previously reported recurrence clinical risk score (CRS).

Summary of background data

Salvage transplantation after hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) resection is limited to patients who recur within Milan criteria (MC). Predicting recurrence patterns may guide treatment recommendations.

Methods

An international, multicenter cohort of R0 resected HCC patients were categorized by MC status at presentation. CRS was calculated by assigning 1 point each for initial disease beyond MC, multinodularity, and microvascular invasion. Recurrence incidences were estimated using competing risks methodology, and conditional recurrence probabilities were estimated using the Bayes theorem.

Results

From 1992 to 2015, 1023 patients were identified, of whom 613 (60%) recurred at a median follow-up of 50 months. CRS was well validated in that all 3 factors remained independent predictors of recurrence beyond MC (hazard ratio 1.5-2.1, all P < 0.001) and accurately stratified recurrence risk beyond MC, ranging from 19% (CRS 0) to 67% (CRS 3) at 5 years. Among patients with CRS 0, no other factors were significantly associated with recurrence beyond MC. The majority recurred within 2 years. After 2 years of recurrence-free survival, the cumulative risk of recurrence beyond MC within the next 5 years for all patients was 14%. This risk was 12% for patients with initial disease within MC and 17% for patients with initial disease beyond MC.

Conclusions

CRS accurately predicted HCC recurrence beyond MC in this international validation. Although the risk of recurrence beyond MC decreased over time, it never reached zero.

SUBMITTER: Zheng J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8404085 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence Beyond Milan Criteria After Resection: Validation of a Clinical Risk Score in an International Cohort.

Zheng Jian J Chou Joanne F JF Gönen Mithat M Vachharajani Neeta N Chapman William C WC Majella Doyle Maria B MB Turcotte Simon S Vandenbroucke-Menu Franck F Lapointe Réal R Buettner Stefan S Groot Koerkamp Bas B Ijzermans Jan N M JNM Chan Chung Yip CY Goh Brian K P BKP Teo Jin Yao JY Kam Juinn Huar JH Jeyaraj Prema R PR Cheow Peng Chung PC Chung Alexander Y F AYF Chow Pierce K H PKH Ooi London L P J LLPJ Balachandran Vinod P VP Kingham T Peter TP Allen Peter J PJ D'Angelica Michael I MI DeMatteo Ronald P RP Jarnagin William R WR Lee Ser Yee SY

Annals of surgery 20171001 4

<h4>Objective</h4>This study aims to validate a previously reported recurrence clinical risk score (CRS).<h4>Summary of background data</h4>Salvage transplantation after hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) resection is limited to patients who recur within Milan criteria (MC). Predicting recurrence patterns may guide treatment recommendations.<h4>Methods</h4>An international, multicenter cohort of R0 resected HCC patients were categorized by MC status at presentation. CRS was calculated by assigning 1 ...[more]

PMID: 28650354

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Project description:ObjectivesTo assess survival after liver resection and transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond Milan criteria.BackgroundThe role of liver resection and transplantation remains controversial for patients with HCC beyond Milan criteria. Resection of advanced tumors and transplantation using extended-criteria are pursued at select high-volume center.MethodsPatients from 5 liver cancer centers in the United States who had liver resection or transplantation for HCC beyond Milan criteria between 1990 and 2011 were included in the study. Multivariable and propensity-matching analyses estimated the effects of clinical factors and operative selection on survival.ResultsOf 608 patients beyond Milan without vascular invasion, 480 (79%) patients underwent resection and 128 (21%) underwent transplantation. Clinicopathologic profiles between resection and transplant patients differed significantly. Hepatitis C and cirrhosis were more prevalent in transplantation group (P < 0.001). Resection patients had larger tumors [median 9 cm, interquartile range (IQR): 6.5-12.9 cm vs. median 4.1, IQR: 3.4-5.3 cm, P < 0.001]; transplant patients were more likely to have multiple tumors (78% vs 28%, P < 0.001).Overall (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were both greater after tumor downstaging and transplantation than resection (all P < 0.001). OS did not differ between liver transplant recipients who were not pretreated or pretreated and failed to downstage compared with propensity-matched liver resection patients (P ≥ 0.176); DFS in this propensity matched cohort was greater after liver transplantation (P ≤ 0.017).ConclusionsLiver resection and transplantation provide curative options for patients with HCC beyond Milan criteria. Further treatment strategies aimed at the efficiency and durability of tumor downstaging and expansion of the role of transplantation among suitable candidates could improve outcomes in patients with large or multifocal HCC.

Project description:Introduction: Several attempts have been made to expand the indications of liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond Milan criteria. We aimed to define genomic features that enable the identification of patients with HCC beyond Milan criteria who have acceptable transplant outcomes. Methods: Among 770 consecutive HCC patients transplanted at Mount Sinai Hospital and Mayo Clinic between 1990 and 2013, 132 had tumors exceeding Milan criteria on pathology and were enrolled in the study. Explant tumors were analyzed to assess genomic signatures of poor prognosis and immunohistochemical markers associated with tumor recurrence and overall survival. Results: Most of the patients were males (80%) and HCV positive (71%) with a median age of 56. HCC beyond Milan criteria was defined pre-operative in 67%. On pathology, 44% of the patients satisfied the ‘up-to-7 rule’. At a median follow-up of 88 months, 64 patients had died and 45 recurred; the 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence rates were 57% and 35%, respectively. CK19 gene signature was independently associated with recurrence (HR=2.95, p<0.001), along with tumor size >5 cm (HR=3.37, p=0.023) and presence of satellite lesions (HR=2.98, p=0.001). S2 subclass signature, which is known to be associated with progenitor cell markers, was independently associated with poor OS (HR=3.18, p=0.001), along with tumor size >5 cm (HR=5.06, p<0.001) and outside up-to-seven rule (HR=2.50, p=0.002). Using the presence of markers of progenitor cells (either CK19 or S2 subclass signatures) patients may be classified into poor-prognosis (n=58; 5-year recurrence 53%, survival 45%) and good-prognosis subgroups (n=74; 5-year recurrence 19%, survival 67%) (HR=3.16, p<0.001 for recurrence, and HR=1.72, p=0.04 for OS). Conclusion: Gene signatures associated with progenitor cell markers (CK19 and S2 subclass signatures) define outcome of HCC patients beyond Milan criteria after transplantation. Patients without these signatures achieve survival rates similar as those patients within Milan criteria. Once prospectively validated, these markers may provide the rationale for a limited expansion of liver transplantation indications.

Project description:Background & aimsGood outcomes after liver transplantation (LT) have been reported after successfully downstaging to Milan criteria in more advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to compare post-LT outcomes in patients receiving locoregional therapies (LRT) before LT according to Milan criteria and University of California San Francisco downstaging (UCSF-DS) protocol and 'all-comers'.MethodsThis multicentre cohort study included patients who received any LRT before LT from Europe and Latin America (2000-2018). We excluded patients with alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) above 1,000 ng/ml. Competing risk regression analysis for HCC recurrence was conducted, estimating subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and corresponding 95% CIs.ResultsFrom 2,441 LT patients, 70.1% received LRT before LT (n = 1,711). Of these, 80.6% were within Milan, 12.0% within UCSF-DS, and 7.4% all-comers. Successful downstaging was achieved in 45.2% (CI 34.8-55.8) and 38.2% (CI 25.4-52.3) of the UCSF-DS group and all-comers, respectively. The risk of recurrence was higher for all-comers (SHR 6.01 [p <0.0001]) and not significantly higher for the UCSF-DS group (SHR 1.60 [p = 0.32]), compared with patients remaining within Milan. The all-comers presented more frequent features of aggressive HCC and higher tumour burden at explant. Among the UCSF-DS group, an AFP value of ≤20 ng/ml at listing was associated with lower recurrence (SHR 2.01 [p = 0.006]) and better survival. However, recurrence was still significantly high irrespective of AFP ≤20 ng/ml in all-comers.ConclusionsPatients within the UCSF-DS protocol at listing have similar post-transplant outcomes compared with those within Milan when successfully downstaged. Meanwhile, all-comers have a higher recurrence and inferior survival irrespective of response to LRT. Additionally, in the UCSF-DS group, an ALP of ≤20 ng/ml might be a novel tool to optimise selection of candidates for LT.Clinical trial numberThis study was registered as part of an open public registry (NCT03775863).Lay summaryPatients with more extended HCC (within the UCSF-DS protocol) successfully downstaged to the conventional Milan criteria do not have a higher recurrence rate after LT compared with the group remaining in the Milan criteria from listing to transplantation. Moreover, in the UCSF-DS patient group, an ALP value equal to or below 20 ng/ml at listing might be a novel tool to further optimise selection of candidates for LT.

Project description:BackgroundLenvatinib is one of the first-line treatments for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, data are lacking on lenvatinib in the postoperative setting.MethodsThis retrospective analysis enrolled 242 patients with HCC who underwent liver transplantation (LTx). Eligible patients were divided into 2 groups according to their use of adjuvant lenvatinib following LTx (lenvatinib, n=42; control, n=200). The primary outcome measures were overall survival (OS), time to recurrence (TTR), and safety. Kaplan-Meier analysis was applied to calculate the OS, while a competing risk model was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of recurrence.ResultsThe lenvatinib group showed more advanced tumors and a higher proportion of HCC beyond the Milan criteria (P<0.001) than the control group. There were no significant differences in both the OS and TTR between the 2 groups. After focusing on the patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria, baseline characteristics were similar in the lenvatinib group (n=38) and the control group (n=102). Competing risk analysis showed lenvatinib significantly prolonged TTR after LTx versus the control group [sub-hazard ratio (sHR), 0.40; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.17 to 0.93; P=0.031]. In the multivariate competing risk model, adjuvant lenvatinib was an independent protective factor for tumor recurrence after LTx in patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria (sHR, 0.33; 95% CI: 0.13 to 0.83; P=0.018). The rate of early recurrence within t2 years after LTx was also significantly decreased in the lenvatinib group (15.8% vs. 33.3%, P=0.041). However, the lenvatinib group exhibited comparable OS with the control group in patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria. Treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) and Grade ≥3 TRAEs occurred in 40 (95.2%) and 13 (31%) patients who received adjuvant lenvatinib, respectively. No treatment-related death was reported.ConclusionsPostoperative lenvatinib administration may provide clinical benefits and is well tolerated in patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria who undergo LTx.

Dataset Information

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence Beyond Milan Criteria After Resection: Validation of a Clinical Risk Score in an International Cohort.

Objective

Summary of background data

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence Beyond Milan Criteria After Resection: Validation of a Clinical Risk Score in an International Cohort.

Similar Datasets

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