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Holiday gatherings, mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: results from 10 US states following Thanksgiving.

ABSTRACT: Public health officials discouraged travel and non-household gatherings for Thanksgiving, but data suggests that travel increased over the holidays. The objective of this analysis was to assess associations between holiday gatherings and SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the weeks following Thanksgiving. Using an online survey, we sampled 7770 individuals across 10 US states from December 4-18, 2020, about 8-22 days post-Thanksgiving. Participants were asked about Thanksgiving, COVID-19 symptoms, and SARS-CoV-2 testing and positivity in the prior 2 weeks. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity and COVID-19 symptoms in the weeks following Thanksgiving. An activity score measured the total number of non-essential activities an individual participated in the prior 2 weeks. The probability of community transmission was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. While 47.2% had Thanksgiving at home with household members, 26.9% had guests and 25.9% traveled. There was a statistically significant interaction between how people spent Thanksgiving, the frequency of activities, and SARS-CoV-2 test positivity in the prior 2 weeks (p < 0.05). Those who had guests for Thanksgiving or traveled were only more likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2 if they also had high activity (e.g., participated in > one non-essential activity/day in the prior 2 weeks). Had individuals limited the number and frequency of activities post-Thanksgiving, cases in surveyed individuals would be reduced by > 50%. As travel continues to increase and the more contagious Delta variant starts to dominate transmission, it is critical to promote how to gather in a "low-risk" manner (e.g., minimize other non-essential activities) to mitigate the need for nationwide shelter-at-home orders.

SUBMITTER: Mehta SH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8405672 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Although whole turkeys served at Thanksgiving are the ubiquitous kickoffs to the US winter holiday season, much remains unknown about shopping behaviors for holiday food items. Given the once-a-year purchase of the whole turkey for most households, collecting data about demand and preferences necessitated the collection of data during the week before Thanksgiving, while turkey shopping was at the forefront of consumers' minds. Despite a self-reported confidence in cooking turkeys, many respondents indicated they thawed frozen meat using improper methods. Ninety-five percent of respondents indicated that they consumed meat; 89% of respondents who consumed meat or had someone in the household who did, indicated they had purchased turkey products. Positive willingness to pay (WTP) was found for all attributes of whole turkeys studied: free range, fed a vegetarian diet, hormone use not permitted, and antibiotic use not permitted. Mean estimated WTP for free range ranged from $0.37/lb for industry verified free range to $0.74/lb for USDA verified free range; although those 2 estimates were not statistically different from each other, they were both statistically different from zero. The statistically significant estimated mean WTP for hormone use not permitted ranged from $0.85/lb for industry verification to $1.35 for USDA verification but were again not statistically different from each other. Mean WTP estimates, which were statistically significant but not different from one another for antibiotic use not permitted, ranged from $0.62/lb for industry certification to $0.72 for retailer certified. Turkeys certified to be fed a vegetarian diet had a mean WTP estimate of $0.39/lb for retailer verification to $0.60/lb for USDA verification; those mean WTP estimates were not statistically different from each other but were each statistically different from zero. Social desirability bias, which can be defined as the relative over-reporting of one's own goodness, was detected with respect to self-reported holiday eating and healthfulness statements. Relationships were found between social desirability bias, gender, and age for holiday eating statements using a seemingly unrelated regression.

Project description:IntroductionCloth face coverings and surgical masks have become commonplace across the United States in response to the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. While evidence suggests masks help curb the spread of respiratory pathogens, research is limited. Face masks have quickly become a topic of public debate as government mandates have started requiring their use. Here we investigate the association between self-reported mask wearing, social distancing and community SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States, as well as the effect of statewide mandates on mask uptake.MethodsSerial cross-sectional surveys were administered June 3 through July 27, 2020 via web platform. Surveys queried individuals' likelihood to wear a face mask to the grocery store or with family and friends. Responses (N=378,207) were aggregated by week and state and combined with measures of the instantaneous reproductive number (Rt), social distancing proxies, respondent demographics and other potential sources of confounding. We fit multivariate logistic regression models to estimate the association between mask wearing and community transmission control (Rt <1) for each state and week. Multiple sensitivity analyses were considered to corroborate findings across mask wearing definitions, Rt estimators and data sources. Additionally, mask wearing in 12 states was evaluated two weeks before and after statewide mandates.ResultsWe find an upward trend in mask usage across the U.S., although uptake varies by geography and demographic groups. A multivariate logistic model controlling for social distancing and other variables found a 10% increase in mask wearing was associated with a 3.53 (95% CI: 2.03, 6.43) odds of transmission control (Rt <1). We also find that communities with high mask wearing and social distancing have the highest predicted probability of a controlled epidemic. These positive associations were maintained across sensitivity analyses. Segmented regression analysis of mask wearing found no statistical change following mandates, however the positive trend of increased mask wearing over time was preserved.ConclusionWidespread utilization of face masks combined with social distancing increases the odds of SARS-CoV-2 transmission control. Mask wearing rose separately from government mask mandates, suggesting supplemental public health interventions are needed to maximize mask adoption and disrupt the spread of SARS-CoV-2, especially as social distancing measures are relaxed.

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Holiday gatherings, mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: results from 10 US states following Thanksgiving.

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