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Early days of the pandemic-The association of economic and socio-political country characteristics with the development of the COVID-19 death toll.

ABSTRACT: This article examines cross-national differences in growth of deaths by COVID-19 over time in the first phase of the pandemic, during the time period of 31st December 2019 to 2nd April 2020. We seek to understand and explain country level reaction in the initial period of the pandemic. We explore socio-economic and socio-political country characteristics as determinants of deaths per day and we examine whether country characteristics act as moderating factors for different growth patterns of deaths per day over time. The country characteristics include variables about economy, globalization, health care and demography. We examine data published by the European Center of Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) in combination with World Bank data and a webscraping approach. Using a conditional growth model specified as a multilevel regression model with deaths by COVID-19 per day as the outcome variable, we show that economic variables are not significantly associated with decrease or increase of deaths by COVID-19. In contrast, variables about national health care mitigate the impact of the pandemic. Demography shows expected effects with an increase of growth of deaths in countries with a higher percentage of people older than 65 years. Globalization predicts the death toll as well: Social interaction between people is deadly on a short-term scale (in the form of tourism). Our results mirror frequent demands for global investment in national health systems.

SUBMITTER: Holz M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8407552 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundControlling the pandemic spread of newly emerging diseases requires rapid, targeted allocation of limited resources among nations. Critical, early control steps would be greatly enhanced if the key risk factors can be identified that accurately predict early disease spread immediately after emergence.Methodology/principal findingsHere, we examine the role of travel, trade, and national healthcare resources in predicting the emergence and initial spread of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza. We find that incorporating national healthcare resource data into our analyses allowed a much greater capacity to predict the international spread of this virus. In countries with lower healthcare resources, the reporting of 2009 A/H1N1 cases was significantly delayed, likely reflecting a lower capacity for testing and reporting, as well as other socio-political issues. We also report substantial international trade in live swine and poultry in the decade preceding the pandemic which may have contributed to the emergence and mixed genotype of this pandemic strain. However, the lack of knowledge of recent evolution of each H1N1 viral gene segment precludes the use of this approach to determine viral origins.Conclusions/significanceWe conclude that strategies to prevent pandemic influenza virus emergence and spread in the future should include: 1) enhanced surveillance for strains resulting from reassortment in traded livestock; 2) rapid deployment of control measures in the initial spreading phase to countries where travel data predict the pathogen will reach and to countries where lower healthcare resources will likely cause delays in reporting. Our results highlight the benefits, for all parties, when higher income countries provide additional healthcare resources for lower income countries, particularly those that have high air traffic volumes. In particular, international authorities should prioritize aid to those poorest countries where both the risk of emerging infectious diseases and air traffic volume is highest. This strategy will result in earlier detection of pathogens and a reduction in the impact of future pandemics.

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Early days of the pandemic-The association of economic and socio-political country characteristics with the development of the COVID-19 death toll.

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