Trends and age-period-cohort effects on hypertension mortality rates from 1998 to 2018 in Mexico.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Castro-Porras LV
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8413460 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:OBJECTIVES:This study aimed to analyze the mortality of heart disease (HD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) through an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. METHODS:We used data on mortality due to cardiovascular disease from 1995 to 2018 in Japan, as determined by Vital Statistics. Age groups from 0 years to 99 years were defined by 5-year increments, and cohorts were defined for each age group of each year with a 1-year shift. We used Bayesian APC analysis to decompose the changes in the diseases' mortality rates into age, period, and cohort effects. RESULTS:The period effects for all diseases decreased during the analyzed periods for both men and women. The cohort effects for men increased substantially in cohorts born from around 1940 to the 1970s for all types of cardiovascular diseases. The cohort effects of HD decreased in the cohorts born in the 1970s or later for both men and women. Regarding IHD and CeVD, either a non-increase or decrease of cohort effects was confirmed for cohorts born in the 1970s or later for men, but the effects for women showed a continuously increasing trend in the cohorts born in the 1960s or later. CONCLUSIONS:The cohort effects for IHD and CeVD showed increasing trends in younger generations of women. This suggests that preventive approaches against cardiovascular diseases are needed, particularly for women.
| S-EPMC7280805 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The maternal mortality situation is analyzed in México as an indicator that reflects the social development level of the country and was one of the millennial development objectives. The effect of a maternal death in the related social group has multiplier effects, since it involves family dislocation, economic impact and disruption of the orphans' normal social development. Two perspectives that causes of maternal mortality were analyzed, on one hand, their relationship with social determinants and on the other, factors directly related to the health system. Evidence shows that comparing populations based on group of selected variables according to social conditions and health care access, statistically significant differences prevail according to education and marginalization levels, and access to medical care. In addition, the Age-Period-Cohort model raised, shows significant progress in terms of a downward trend in maternal mortality in a generational level. Those women born before 1980 had a greater probability of maternal death in relation to recent generations, which is a reflection of the improvement in social determinants and in the Health System. The age effect shows a problem in maternal mortality in women under 15 years old, so teen pregnancy is a priority in health and must be addressed in short term. There is no clear evidence of a period effect.
| S-EPMC5862485 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The aim of this study was to determine the age-period-cohort (APC) effects on the rate of infection-related emergency department (ED) visits from septicemia for predicting the same in recent periods.In our study, we investigated the longitudinal trends in septicemia-related visit rates. Using an APC model to decompose the septicemia visit rates into the effects of age, time period, and cohort, and examine whether their effects varied by sex.The septicemia ED visit rate was classified as the International Classification of Disease Code 038 by primary and secondary diagnosis between 1998 and 2012.In both males and females, the visit rate of septicemia showed an increase from 2003 through 2012. An increase in septicemia visit rate after 2003 was observed in all age groups. An APC model indicated a reversal increasing period effect, which increased prominently from 2003 to 2012 in both males and females. The age effect showed an increasing trend. The cohort effect tended to show a slight oscillation from 1913 to 1988. With reference to the prediction of the logarithms of the age-specific 5-year visit rates, we observed that the younger cohorts exhibited a slightly increasing trend, as compared to the older cohorts.The period effect can explain the increase in septicemia visit rates, suggesting the role of screening for septicemia. Furthermore, it is well known that aging is a relevant risk variable for infectious diseases. The present study concludes that the aged population exhibited a strong increasing future trend for septicemia-related ED visit rates.
| S-EPMC5268041 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHong Kong population has experienced drastic changes in its economic development in the 1940s. Taking advantage of Hong Kong's unique demographic and socioeconomic history, characterized by massive, punctuated migration waves from Southern China, and recent, rapid transition from a pre-industrialized society to the first ethnic Chinese community reaching "first world" status over the last 60 years (i.e., in two or three generations), we examined the longitudinal trends in infection related mortality including septicemia compared to trends in non-bacterial pneumonia to generate hypotheses for further testing in other recently transitioned economies and to provide generalized aetiological insights on how economic transition affects infection-related mortality.MethodsWe used deaths from septicemia and pneumonia not specified as bacterial, and population figures in Hong Kong from 1976-2005. We fitted age-period-cohort models to decompose septicemia and non-bacterial pneumonia mortality rates into age, period and cohort effects.ResultsSepticaemia-related deaths increased exponentially with age, with a downturn by period. The birth cohort curves had downward inflections in both sexes in the 1940s, with a steeper deceleration for women. Non-bacterial pneumonia-related deaths also increased exponentially with age, but the birth cohort patterns showed no downturns for those born in the 1940s.ConclusionThe observed changes appeared to suggest that better early life conditions may enable better development of adaptive immunity, thus enhancing immunity against bacterial infections, with greater benefits for women than men. Given the interaction between the immune system and the gonadotropic axis, these observations are compatible with the hypothesis that upregulation of the gonadotropic axis underlies some of the changes in disease patterns with economic development.
| S-EPMC3375224 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study examines the roles of age, period, and cohort in influenza mortality trends over the years 1959-2016 in the United States. First, we use Lexis surfaces based on Serfling models to highlight influenza mortality patterns as well as to identify lingering effects of early-life exposure to specific influenza virus subtypes (e.g., H1N1, H3N2). Second, we use age-period-cohort (APC) methods to explore APC linear trends and identify changes in the slope of these trends (contrasts). Our analyses reveal a series of breakpoints where the magnitude and direction of birth cohort trends significantly change, mostly corresponding to years in which important antigenic drifts or shifts took place (i.e., 1947, 1957, 1968, and 1978). Whereas child, youth, and adult influenza mortality appear to be influenced by a combination of cohort- and period-specific factors, reflecting the interaction between the antigenic experience of the population and the evolution of the influenza virus itself, mortality patterns of the elderly appear to be molded by broader cohort factors. The latter would reflect the processes of physiological capital improvement in successive birth cohorts through secular changes in early-life conditions. Antigenic imprinting, cohort morbidity phenotype, and other mechanisms that can generate the observed cohort effects, including the baby boom, are discussed.
| S-EPMC6797638 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To analyse mortality trends of liver diseases in China over the past 30 years. DESIGN:Age-period-cohort analyses were applied to liver diseases data obtained from the Chinese Health Statistics Annual Report (1987-2001) and the Chinese Health Statistics Yearbook (2003-2017). SETTING:General population in mainland China. OUTCOMES:Mortality rates and age, period and cohort effects on three categories of liver diseases: primary liver cancer (PLC), chronic liver disease and cirrhosis (CLD), and viral hepatitis (VH). RESULTS:A total of 13.54 million deaths were attributable to liver diseases over the period between 1987 and 2016, resulting in an average of 36.15 deaths per 100 000 population per year. The risk of PLC mortality increased by 32.69% over the period after controlling for the effects of age and birth cohort. By contrast, the risk of CLD mortality decreased by 56.64% over the same period. The risk of VH mortality decreased first, followed by a resurgence after the period of 2002-2006. Similar mortality risk trends by age (increasing) and birth cohort (decreasing) were observed for PLC and CLD. The year 1952 represented a turning point for VH, with people born after 1950 experiencing a declining risk of VH mortality. CONCLUSIONS:China has achieved great success in reducing the mortality of VH and CLD. However, significant challenges lie ahead in the efforts to prevent and control PLC and the resurgence of VH.
| S-EPMC6858130 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Unintentional falls seriously threaten the life and health of people in China. This study aimed to assess the long-term trends of mortality from unintentional falls in China and to examine the age-, period-, and cohort-specific effects behind them. Methods: This population-based multiyear cross-sectional study of Chinese people aged 0-84 years was a secondary analysis of the mortality data of fall injuries from 1990 to 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Age-standardized mortality rates of unintentional falls by year, sex, and age group were used as the main outcomes and were analyzed within the age-period-cohort framework. Results: Although the crude mortality rates of unintentional falls for men and women showed a significant upward trend, the age-standardized mortality rates for both sexes only increased slightly. The net drift of unintentional fall mortality was 0.13% (95% CI, -0.04 to 0.3%) per year for men and -0.71% (95% CI, -0.96 to -0.46%) per year for women. The local drift values for both sexes increased with age group. Significant age, cohort, and period effects were found behind the mortality trends of the unintentional falls for both sexes in China. Conclusions: Unintentional falls are still a major public health problem that disproportionately threatens the lives of men and women in China. Efforts should be put in place urgently to prevent the growing number of fall-related mortality for men over 40 years old and women over 70 years old. Gains observed in the recent period, relative risks (RRs), and cohort RRs may be related to improved healthcare and better education.
| S-EPMC8744467 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Our study examined the age, period, and cohort effects on overweight and obesity in children using a 10-year dataset collected from schoolchildren in Hualien, Taiwan. Methods: We used data from the annual health checkup of a total of 94,661 schoolchildren in primary schools and junior high schools in Hualien from 2009 to 2018. Children were defined as overweight or obese by the gender- and age-specific norm of the body mass index. We conducted the age-period-cohort (APC) analysis in boys and girls separately. Results: From 2009 to 2018, the rates of children overweight and obese were 12.78 and 14.23%, respectively. Boys had higher rates of overweight and obesity than girls (29.73 vs. 24.03%, P < 0.001). Based on APC analysis results, positive age effect existed regardless of gender. The risk of overweight or obesity of children aged 9 or 12 years was significantly higher compared to the average rate. As for period effect, a fluctuating downward trend in overweight was evident in 2016, and a similar trend in obesity was seen in 2017 across gender groups. The birth cohort of 2007 to 2009 had a significant higher proportion of overweight and obese than other birth cohorts. This indicated that the proportion of children overweight and obese in the young generation is higher than that in the old generation. Conclusion: An increased risk of children overweight or obese was associated with age and later birth cohort. For the period effect, the trend in the prevalence of overweight and obesity fluctuated downward slowly from 2016 to 2017.
| S-EPMC8155382 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Bibliometric analysis, a powerful tool for assessing trends in research output, was employed to analyze the evolution of hypertension research over a 20-year period. The analysis was based on 90 308 original articles and a citation analysis. The use of bibliometric as a potential tool for shaping research policy at the institution or country level was also explored. The number of published hypertension articles increased by 43.5% over the 20-year period. By contrast, the increase in the number of articles in all medical disciplines was 96%, and in the cardiovascular field was 64%. Of the 6 countries producing the largest number of articles, the United States was consistently the major contributor. There was a slight decrease from Japan, a slight increase from the United Kingdom, and relatively stable output from Germany and Italy over the study period. Output from China showed the strongest growth. The trends in Specialization Index and Category Normalized Citation Impact varied by country. In Russia, Poland, and Brazil, increases in output were greater for hypertension research than for medical research in general. The United Kingdom and Denmark had greater hypertension research output than the other countries. VOSviewer analysis showed an intensification of collaborations between countries and a shift, over 10 years, from 3 clusters towards 2 clusters. Such analysis may help to shape research policy at the country level and can be similarly performed for institutions. Historical changes in hypertension research can be monitored over decades if the same channels continue to be used for communication of scientific results.
| S-EPMC7535103 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo assess age, period, and birth cohort effects and patterns of obesity-attributable mortality in Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, and the UK (UK).MethodsWe obtained obesity prevalence and all-cause mortality data by age (20-79), sex and country for 1990-2012. We applied Clayton and Schifflers' age-period-cohort approach to obesity-attributable mortality rates (OAMRs).ResultsBetween 1990 and 2012, obesity prevalence increased and age-standardised OAMRs declined, although not uniformly. The nonlinear birth cohort effects contributed significantly (p?<?0.01) to obesity-attributable mortality trends in all populations, except in Czech Republic, Finland, and among German women, and Polish men. Their contribution was greater than 25% in UK and among French women, and larger than that of the nonlinear period effects. In the UK, mortality rate ratios (MRRs) increased among the cohorts born after 1950. In other populations with significant birth cohort effects, MRRs increased among the 1935-1960 cohorts and decreased thereafter.ConclusionsGiven its potential effects on obesity-attributable mortality, the cohort dimension should not be ignored and calls for interventions early in life next to actions targeting broader societal changes.
| S-EPMC6015618 | biostudies-literature