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Trends and age-period-cohort effects on hypertension mortality rates from 1998 to 2018 in Mexico.

ABSTRACT: Arterial hypertension is a major global health problem. It is the main risk factor for preventable death and the leading cause of premature death in the world. This study aims to describe the changes in hypertension-related mortality in Mexico between 1998 and 2018. Using death certificates and national population public data sets, a total of 335,863 deaths due to hypertension were found in Mexico, disaggregated by sex and age, during the time period covered in this study. An age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to show trends in hypertension mortality rates. Mortality due to hypertension in Mexico affects more women than men. In the most recent cohorts, the risk of dying from hypertension is two times higher in men compared to women. Hypertensive kidney disease is found to be the main underlying cause, with an average increase throughout the period studied. Our results indicate that mortality rates due to hypertension continue to grow and point to an alarming trend of mortality shifting towards younger ages, with sex-based disparities in absolute numbers and in changing trends.

SUBMITTER: Castro-Porras LV

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8413460 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Trends and age-period-cohort effects on hypertension mortality rates from 1998 to 2018 in Mexico.

Castro-Porras Lilia V LV Rojas-Martínez Rosalba R Aguilar-Salinas Carlos A CA Bello-Chavolla Omar Yaxmehen OY Becerril-Gutierrez Carlos C Escamilla-Nuñez Consuelo C

Scientific reports 20210902 1

Arterial hypertension is a major global health problem. It is the main risk factor for preventable death and the leading cause of premature death in the world. This study aims to describe the changes in hypertension-related mortality in Mexico between 1998 and 2018. Using death certificates and national population public data sets, a total of 335,863 deaths due to hypertension were found in Mexico, disaggregated by sex and age, during the time period covered in this study. An age-period-cohort a ...[more]

PMID: 34475436

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Project description:BackgroundEndometrial cancer is the sixth leading cause of cancer among females and about 97,000 global deaths of endometrial cancer. The changes in the trends of obesity, fertility rates and other risk factors in South Africa (SA) may impact the endometrial cancer trends. The aim of this study was to utilise the age period cohort and join point regression modelling to evaluate the national and ethnic trends in endometrial cancer mortality in South Africa over a 20year period (1999-2018).MethodsData from Statistics South Africa was obtained to calculate the annual number of deaths, and annual crude and age standardised mortality rates (ASMR) of endometrial cancer from 1999-2018. The overall and ethnic trends of endometrial cancer mortality was assessed using the Join point regression model, while Age-period-cohort (APC) regression modelling was conducted to estimate the effect of age, calendar period and birth cohort.ResultsDuring the period 1999-2018, 4,877 deaths were due to endometrial cancer which constituted about 3.6% of breast and gynecological cancer deaths (3.62%, 95% CI: 3.52%-3.72%) in South Africa. The ASMR of endometrial cancer doubled from 0.76 deaths per 100,000 women in 1999 to 1.5 deaths per 100,000 women in 2018, with an average annual rise of 3.6% per annum. (Average Annual Percentage change (AAPC): 3.6%, 95%CI:2.7-4.4, P-value < 0.001). In 2018, the overall mean age at death for endometrial cancer was was 67.40 ± 11.04 years and, the ASMR of endometrial cancer among Indian/Asians (1.69 per 100,000 women), Blacks (1.63 per 100,000 women) and Coloreds (1.39 per 100,000 women) was more than doubled the rates among Whites (0.66 deaths per 100,000 women). Indian/Asians had stable rates while other ethnic groups had increased rates. The Cohort mortality risk ratio (RR) of endometrial cancer increased with successive birth cohort from 1924 to 1963 (RR increased from 0.2 to 1.00), and subsequently declined among successive cohorts from 1963 to 1998 (1.00 to 0.09). There was strong age and cohort but not period effect among the South African women. Ethnic disparity showed that there was age effect among all the ethnic groups; Cohort effect among Blacks and Coloureds only, while Period effect occurred only among Blacks.ConclusionsThe mortality rates of endometrial cancer doubled over a twenty-year period in South Africa from 1999-2018. There was strong ethnic disparity, with age and cohort effect on endometrial cancer trends. Thus, targeted efforts geared towards prevention and prompt treatment of endometrial cancer among the high-risk groups should be pursued by stake holders.

Dataset Information

Trends and age-period-cohort effects on hypertension mortality rates from 1998 to 2018 in Mexico.

Publications

Trends and age-period-cohort effects on hypertension mortality rates from 1998 to 2018 in Mexico.

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