Dataset Information

Age-period-cohort Analysis of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Japan, 1995-2018.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:This study aimed to analyze the mortality of heart disease (HD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) through an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. METHODS:We used data on mortality due to cardiovascular disease from 1995 to 2018 in Japan, as determined by Vital Statistics. Age groups from 0 years to 99 years were defined by 5-year increments, and cohorts were defined for each age group of each year with a 1-year shift. We used Bayesian APC analysis to decompose the changes in the diseases' mortality rates into age, period, and cohort effects. RESULTS:The period effects for all diseases decreased during the analyzed periods for both men and women. The cohort effects for men increased substantially in cohorts born from around 1940 to the 1970s for all types of cardiovascular diseases. The cohort effects of HD decreased in the cohorts born in the 1970s or later for both men and women. Regarding IHD and CeVD, either a non-increase or decrease of cohort effects was confirmed for cohorts born in the 1970s or later for men, but the effects for women showed a continuously increasing trend in the cohorts born in the 1960s or later. CONCLUSIONS:The cohort effects for IHD and CeVD showed increasing trends in younger generations of women. This suggests that preventive approaches against cardiovascular diseases are needed, particularly for women.

SUBMITTER: Okui T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7280805 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Age-period-cohort Analysis of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Japan, 1995-2018.

Okui Tasuku T

Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi 20200414 3

<h4>Objectives</h4>This study aimed to analyze the mortality of heart disease (HD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) through an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.<h4>Methods</h4>We used data on mortality due to cardiovascular disease from 1995 to 2018 in Japan, as determined by Vital Statistics. Age groups from 0 years to 99 years were defined by 5-year increments, and cohorts were defined for each age group of each year with a 1-year shift. We used Bayesian APC an ...[more]

PMID: 32498145

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Project description:BackgroundChagas disease (CD) is a neglected chronic parasitic infection and a public health problem that is preventable, and has serious complications. In this study, the effects of age, period and birth cohort (APC Effects) on the evolution of the mortality of that disease in Brazil, from 1980-2014, according to sex and geographic region of the country, were analyzed. Mortality forecasts from the years 2015 to 2034 were estimated.MethodsThis is an ecological cross-sectional study in which death records and population data were extracted from the DATASUS (Department of Information Technology of the National Health System) website, in age groups from 20-24 years of age to 80 years and over, from 1980 to 2014. The rates were standardized according to age and sex distributions using the direct method. The APC models were estimated using the Bayesian approach, and the INLA (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations) method was used for parameter inference. Super dispersion of the data was considered, and we included unstructured random terms in the models.ResultsDuring the analyzed period, there were 178,823 deaths in Brazil (3.85 annual deaths per 100,000 inhabitants). It was found that temporal effects on CD mortality varied by sex and region. In general, there was an increase in mortality rates up to 30 years of age, and the mortality rates were higher between 50 and 64 years of age. On average, men died five years younger than women. Mortality rates were highest in the Central West and Southeast regions. The Central West, Southeast and Southern regions had a reduction over time in the rate of CD deaths between 2000 and 2014. The mortality rate in the Northeast was not statistically different in any period analyzed, while the North had tendency to increase; however, a significant risk increase was only observed between 1995 and 1999. The rate of mortality was high in older birth cohorts. The overall prediction for the next two decades showed a progressive decline in CD mortality, which will be highest among the young. The expected average reduction was 76.1% compared to the last observed period (2010-2014) and the last predicted (2030-2034) period. The average reduction ranged from 86% in the 20-24 age group to 50% in the 80 and over age group.ConclusionsIn the present study, a higher death rate was observed for ages above 30 years, especially 50 to 64 years, and in the older birth cohorts. We believe these results can be related to period effects of vector control actions and preventive and care measures by the health system of Brazil, in addition to demographic changes in the period. The differences among the regions reflect socioeconomic inequities and access to the healthcare systems in the Brazilian population.

Dataset Information

Age-period-cohort Analysis of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Japan, 1995-2018.

Publications

Age-period-cohort Analysis of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Japan, 1995-2018.

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