Modelling testing and response strategies for COVID-19 outbreaks in remote Australian Aboriginal communities.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT: Background
Remote Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities have potential to be severely impacted by COVID-19, with multiple factors predisposing to increased transmission and disease severity. Our modelling aims to inform optimal public health responses.Methods
An individual-based simulation model represented SARS-CoV2 transmission in communities ranging from 100 to 3500 people, comprised of large, interconnected households. A range of strategies for case finding, quarantining of contacts, testing, and lockdown were examined, following the silent introduction of a case.Results
Multiple secondary infections are likely present by the time the first case is identified. Quarantine of close contacts, defined by extended household membership, can reduce peak infection prevalence from 60 to 70% to around 10%, but subsequent waves may occur when community mixing resumes. Exit testing significantly reduces ongoing transmission. Concurrent lockdown of non-quarantined households for 14 days is highly effective for epidemic control and reduces overall testing requirements; peak prevalence of the initial outbreak can be constrained to less than 5%, and the final community attack rate to less than 10% in modelled scenarios. Lockdown also mitigates the effect of a delay in the initial response. Compliance with lockdown must be at least 80-90%, however, or epidemic control will be lost.Conclusions
A SARS-CoV-2 outbreak will spread rapidly in remote communities. Prompt case detection with quarantining of extended-household contacts and a 14 day lockdown for all other residents, combined with exit testing for all, is the most effective strategy for rapid containment. Compliance is crucial, underscoring the need for community supported, culturally sensitive responses.
SUBMITTER: Hui BB
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8424150 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To describe antibiotic prescription rates for Australian Aboriginal children aged <2 years living in three remote Northern Territory communities. DESIGN:A retrospective cohort study using electronic health records. SETTING:Three primary health care centres located in the Katherine East region. PARTICIPANTS:Consent was obtained from 149 mothers to extract data from 196 child records. There were 124 children born between January 2010 and July 2014 who resided in one of the three chosen communities and had electronic health records for their first two years of life. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Antibiotic prescription rates, factors associated with antibiotic prescription and factors associated with appropriate antibiotic prescription. RESULTS:There were 5,675 Primary Health Care (PHC) encounters for 124 children (median 41, IQR 25.5, 64). Of the 5,675 PHC encounters, 1,542 (27%) recorded at least one infection (total 1,777) and 1,330 (23%) had at least one antibiotic prescription recorded (total 1,468). Children had a median five (IQR 2, 9) prescriptions in both their first and second year of life, with a prescription rate of 5.99/person year (95% CI 5.35, 6.63). Acute otitis media was the most common infection (683 records, 38%) and Amoxycillin was the most commonly prescribed antibiotic (797 prescriptions, 54%). Of the 1,468 recorded prescriptions, 398 (27%) had no infection recorded and 116 (8%) with an infection recorded were not aligned with local treatment guidelines. CONCLUSION:Prescription rates for Australian Aboriginal children in these communities are significantly higher than that reported nationally for non-Aboriginal Australians. Prescriptions predominantly aligned with treatment guidelines in this setting where there is a high burden of infectious disease.
| S-EPMC7164616 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: There is limited epidemiological research that provides insight into the complex web of causative and moderating factors that links housing conditions to a variety of poor health outcomes. This study explores the relationship between housing conditions (with a primary focus on the functional state of infrastructure) and common childhood illness in remote Australian Aboriginal communities for the purpose of informing development of housing interventions to improve child health. METHODS: Hierarchical multi-level analysis of association between carer report of common childhood illnesses and functional and hygienic state of housing infrastructure, socio-economic, psychosocial and health related behaviours using baseline survey data from a housing intervention study. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed a strong independent association between report of respiratory infection and overall functional condition of the house (Odds Ratio (OR) 3.00; 95%CI 1.36-6.63), but no significant association between report of other illnesses and the overall functional condition or the functional condition of infrastructure required for specific healthy living practices. Associations between report of child illness and secondary explanatory variables which showed an OR of 2 or more included: for skin infection--evidence of poor temperature control in the house (OR 3.25; 95%CI 1.06-9.94), evidence of pests and vermin in the house (OR 2.88; 95%CI 1.25-6.60); for respiratory infection--breastfeeding in infancy (OR 0.27; 95%CI 0.14-0.49); for diarrhoea/vomiting--hygienic state of food preparation and storage areas (OR 2.10; 95%CI 1.10-4.00); for ear infection--child care attendance (OR 2.25; 95%CI 1.26-3.99). CONCLUSION: These findings add to other evidence that building programs need to be supported by a range of other social and behavioural interventions for potential health gains to be more fully realised.
| S-EPMC2848201 | biostudies-other
Project description:BACKGROUND: Despite Australia's wealth, poor growth is common among Aboriginal children living in remote communities. An important underlying factor for poor growth is the unhygienic state of the living environment in these communities. This study explores the physical and social barriers to achieving safe levels of hygiene for these children. METHODS: A mixed qualitative and quantitative approach included a community level cross-sectional housing infrastructure survey, focus groups, case studies and key informant interviews in one community. RESULTS: We found that a combination of crowding, non-functioning essential housing infrastructure and poor standards of personal and domestic hygiene underlie the high burden of infection experienced by children in this remote community. CONCLUSION: There is a need to address policy and the management of infrastructure, as well as key parenting and childcare practices that allow the high burden of infection among children to persist. The common characteristics of many remote Aboriginal communities in Australia suggest that these findings may be more widely applicable.
| S-EPMC2758870 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundSkin sores caused by Group A streptococcus (GAS) infection are a major public health problem in remote Aboriginal communities. Skin sores are often associated with scabies, which is evident in scabies intervention programs where a significant reduction of skin sores is seen after focusing solely on scabies control. Our study quantifies the strength of association between skin sores and scabies among Aboriginal children from the East Arnhem region in the Northern Territory.Methods and resultsPre-existing datasets from three published studies, which were conducted as part of the East Arnhem Healthy Skin Project (EAHSP), were analysed. Aboriginal children were followed from birth up to 4.5 years of age. Self-controlled case series design was used to determine the risks, within individuals, of developing skin sores when infected with scabies versus when there was no scabies infection. Participants were 11.9 times more likely to develop skin sores when infected with scabies compared with times when no scabies infection was evident (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 11.9; 95% CI 10.3-13.7; p<0.001), and this was similar across the five Aboriginal communities. Children had lower risk of developing skin sores at age ?1 year compared to at age >1 year (IRR 0.8; 95% CI 0.7-0.9).ConclusionThe association between scabies and skin sores is highly significant and indicates a causal relationship. The public health importance of scabies in northern Australia is underappreciated and a concerted approach is required to recognise and eliminate scabies as an important precursor of skin sores.
| S-EPMC6078322 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Indigenous infants and children in Australia, especially in remote communities, experience early and chronic otitis media (OM) which is difficult to treat and has lifelong impacts in health and education. The LiTTLe Program (Learning to Talk, Talking to Learn) aimed to increase infants' access to spoken language input, teach parents to manage health and hearing problems, and support children's school readiness. This paper aimed to explore caregivers' views about this inclusive, parent-implemented early childhood program for 0-3 years in an Aboriginal community health context.Data from in-depth, semi-structured interviews with 9 caregivers of 12 children who had participated in the program from one remote Aboriginal community in the Northern Territory are presented. Data were analysed thematically. Caregivers provided overall views on the program. In addition, three key areas of focus in the program are also presented here: speech and language, hearing health, and school readiness.Caregivers were positive about the interactive speech and language strategies in the program, except for some strategies which some parents found alien or difficult: such as talking slowly, following along with the child's topic, using parallel talk, or baby talk. Children's hearing was considered by caregivers to be important for understanding people, enjoying music, and detecting environmental sounds including signs of danger. Caregivers provided perspectives on the utility of sign language and its benefits for communicating with infants and young children with hearing loss, and the difficulty of getting young community children to wear a conventional hearing aid. Caregivers were strongly of the opinion that the program had helped prepare children for school through familiarising their child with early literacy activities and resources, as well as school routines. But caregivers differed as to whether they thought the program should have been located at the school itself.The caregivers generally reported positive views about the LiTTLe Program, and also drew attention to areas for improvement. The perspectives gathered may serve to guide other cross-sector collaborations across health and education to respond to OM among children at risk for OM-related disability in speech and language development.
| S-EPMC5840719 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA healthy start predicts better health in later life. Many remote-living Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australian families lack access to consistent, culturally-safe health services. This paper presents a study of implementation of the Baby One Program (BOP). The BOP was designed as a family-centred, Indigenous Healthworker-led, home-visiting model of care focused on promoting family health to give children the best start to life. It was developed by Aboriginal community-controlled Apunipima Cape York Health Council and delivered in Queensland Cape York remote communities. We aimed to determine how the BOP was implemented, enablers, strategies used and formative implementation outcomes.MethodsThe qualitative approach utilised theoretical and purposive sampling to explore people's experiences of a program implementation process. Data were generated from semi-structured interviews with four family members enrolled in the BOP and 24 Apunipima staff members. In addition, twenty community members, including two program users, participated in a men's community focus group. The findings are presented according to themes arising from the data.ResultsThe BOP was rolled out in nine remote Cape York communities between July 2014 and December 2015 and there was high uptake. Indigenous Healthworkers were supported by midwives and maternal and child health nurses to deliver health education to 161 eligible families. The key to effective implementation of family-centred care appeared to be the relationships formed between health practitioners, especially Indigenous Healthworkers, and families. The data revealed the following themes: challenging environments for new families and valuing cultural ways, resourcing program delivery, working towards a team approach, negotiating the cultural interface, engaging families, exchanging knowledge through 'yarning', strengthening the workforce, and seeing health changes in families. Healthworker education and training, and knowledge exchange between Healthworkers, midwives and nurses was critical to program effectiveness. The program continues to grow despite substantial logistic, financial and practical challenges.ConclusionsThis study describes an evolving process and explores how health providers connect with families and how the program responds to family and cultural issues. Program development is ongoing; strengthened by more community-level involvement, embedded strategies for ongoing self-evaluation and continuous quality improvements that are responsive to family needs.
| S-EPMC5866524 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionResearch with Indigenous populations is not always designed with cultural sensitivity. Few publications evaluate or describe in detail seeking consent for research with Indigenous participants. When potential participants are not engaged in a culturally respectful manner, participation rates and research quality can be adversely affected. It is unethical to proceed with research without truly informed consent.Methods and analysisWe describe a culturally appropriate research protocol that is invited by Aboriginal communities of the Fitzroy Valley in Western Australia. The Picture Talk Project is a research partnership with local Aboriginal leaders who are also chief investigators. We will interview Aboriginal leaders about research, community engagement and the consent process and hold focus groups with Aboriginal community members about individual consent. Cultural protocols will be applied to recruit and conduct research with participants. Transcripts will be analysed using NVivo10 qualitative software and themes synthesised to highlight the key issues raised by the community about the research process. This protocol will guide future research with the Aboriginal communities of the Fitzroy Valley and may inform the approach to research with other Indigenous communities of Australia or the world. It must be noted that no community is the same and all research requires local consultation and input. To conduct culturally sensitive research, respected local people from the community who have knowledge of cultural protocol and language are engaged to guide each step of the research process from the project design to the delivery of results.Ethics and disseminationEthics approval was granted by the University of Sydney Human Research Ethics Committee (No. 2012/348, reference:14760), the Western Australia Country Health Service Ethics Committee (No. 2012:15), the Western Australian Aboriginal Health Ethics Committee and reviewed by the Kimberley Aboriginal Health Planning Forum Research Sub-Committee (No. 2012-008). Results will be disseminated through peer review articles, a local Fitzroy Valley report and conference presentations.
| S-EPMC5770946 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), a new, highly contagious, viral disease, emerged in China late in 2002 and quickly spread to 32 countries and regions causing in excess of 774 deaths and 8098 infections worldwide. In the absence of a rapid diagnostic test, therapy or vaccine, isolation of individuals diagnosed with SARS and quarantine of individuals feared exposed to SARS virus were used to control the spread of infection. We examine mathematically the impact of isolation and quarantine on the control of SARS during the outbreaks in Toronto, Hong Kong, Singapore and Beijing using a deterministic model that closely mimics the data for cumulative infected cases and SARS-related deaths in the first three regions but not in Beijing until mid-April, when China started to report data more accurately. The results reveal that achieving a reduction in the contact rate between susceptible and diseased individuals by isolating the latter is a critically important strategy that can control SARS outbreaks with or without quarantine. An optimal isolation programme entails timely implementation under stringent hygienic precautions defined by a critical threshold value. Values below this threshold lead to control, but those above are associated with the incidence of new community outbreaks or nosocomial infections, a known cause for the spread of SARS in each region. Allocation of resources to implement optimal isolation is more effective than to implement sub-optimal isolation and quarantine together. A community-wide eradication of SARS is feasible if optimal isolation is combined with a highly effective screening programme at the points of entry.
| S-EPMC1691853 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesUniversities are exploring strategies to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 prior to reopening their campuses. National guidelines do not currently recommend testing students prior to campus arrival. However, the impact of presemester testing has not been studied.DesignDynamic SARS-CoV-2 transmission models are used to explore the effects of three presemester testing interventions.InterventionsTesting of students 0, 1 and 2 times prior to campus arrival.Primary outcomesNumber of active infections and time until isolation bed capacity is reached.SettingWe set on-campus and off-campus populations to 7500 and 17?500 students, respectively. We assumed 2% prevalence of active cases at the semester start, and that one-third of infected students will be detected and isolated throughout the semester. Isolation bed capacity was set at 500. We varied disease transmission rates (R0=1.5, 2, 3, 4) to represent the effectiveness of mitigation strategies throughout the semester.ResultsWithout presemester screening, peak number of active infections ranged from 4114 under effective mitigation strategies (R0=1.5) to 10?481 under ineffective mitigation strategies (R0=4), and exhausted isolation bed capacity within 10 (R 0 =4) to 25 days (R0=1.5). Mandating at least one test prior to campus arrival delayed the timing and reduced the size of the peak, while delaying the time until isolation bed capacity was reached. Testing twice in conjunction with effective mitigation strategies (R0=1.5) was the only scenario that did not exhaust isolation bed capacity during the semester.ConclusionsPresemester screening is necessary to avert early and large surges of active COVID-19 infections. Therefore, we recommend testing within 1?week prior to and on campus return. While this strategy is sufficient for delaying the timing of the peak outbreak, presemester testing would need to be implemented in conjunction with effective mitigation strategies to significantly reduce outbreak size and preserve isolation bed capacity.
| S-EPMC7745453 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSurveillance testing within healthcare facilities provides an opportunity to prevent severe outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the quantitative impact of different available surveillance strategies and their potential to decrease the frequency of outbreaks are not well-understood.MethodsWe establish an individual-based model representative of a mental health hospital yielding generalizable results. Attributes and features of this facility were derived from a prototypical hospital, which provides psychiatric, psychosomatic and psychotherapeutic treatment. We estimate the relative reduction of outbreak probability for three test strategies (entry test, once-weekly test and twice-weekly test) relative to a symptom-based baseline strategy. Based on our findings, we propose determinants of successful surveillance measures.ResultsEntry Testing reduced the outbreak probability by 26%, additionally testing once or twice weekly reduced the outbreak probability by 49% or 67% respectively. We found that fast diagnostic test results and adequate compliance of the clinic population are mandatory for conducting effective surveillance. The robustness of these results towards uncertainties is demonstrated via comprehensive sensitivity analyses.ConclusionsWe conclude that active testing in mental health hospitals and similar facilities considerably reduces the number of COVID-19 outbreaks compared to symptom-based surveillance only.
| S-EPMC8800405 | biostudies-literature