Dataset Information

Modelling the impact of presemester testing on COVID-19 outbreaks in university campuses.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Universities are exploring strategies to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 prior to reopening their campuses. National guidelines do not currently recommend testing students prior to campus arrival. However, the impact of presemester testing has not been studied.

Design

Dynamic SARS-CoV-2 transmission models are used to explore the effects of three presemester testing interventions.

Interventions

Testing of students 0, 1 and 2 times prior to campus arrival.

Primary outcomes

Number of active infections and time until isolation bed capacity is reached.

Setting

We set on-campus and off-campus populations to 7500 and 17?500 students, respectively. We assumed 2% prevalence of active cases at the semester start, and that one-third of infected students will be detected and isolated throughout the semester. Isolation bed capacity was set at 500. We varied disease transmission rates (R₀=1.5, 2, 3, 4) to represent the effectiveness of mitigation strategies throughout the semester.

Results

Without presemester screening, peak number of active infections ranged from 4114 under effective mitigation strategies (R₀=1.5) to 10?481 under ineffective mitigation strategies (R₀=4), and exhausted isolation bed capacity within 10 (R ₀ =4) to 25 days (R₀=1.5). Mandating at least one test prior to campus arrival delayed the timing and reduced the size of the peak, while delaying the time until isolation bed capacity was reached. Testing twice in conjunction with effective mitigation strategies (R₀=1.5) was the only scenario that did not exhaust isolation bed capacity during the semester.

Conclusions

Presemester screening is necessary to avert early and large surges of active COVID-19 infections. Therefore, we recommend testing within 1?week prior to and on campus return. While this strategy is sufficient for delaying the timing of the peak outbreak, presemester testing would need to be implemented in conjunction with effective mitigation strategies to significantly reduce outbreak size and preserve isolation bed capacity.

SUBMITTER: Rennert L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7745453 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Modelling the impact of presemester testing on COVID-19 outbreaks in university campuses.

Rennert Lior L Kalbaugh Corey Andrew CA Shi Lu L McMahan Christopher C

BMJ open 20201215 12

<h4>Objectives</h4>Universities are exploring strategies to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 prior to reopening their campuses. National guidelines do not currently recommend testing students prior to campus arrival. However, the impact of presemester testing has not been studied.<h4>Design</h4>Dynamic SARS-CoV-2 transmission models are used to explore the effects of three presemester testing interventions.<h4>Interventions</h4>Testing of students 0, 1 and 2 times prior to campus arrival.<h4>Prim ...[more]

PMID: 33323447

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundEpidemics of COVID-19 in student populations at universities were a key concern for the 2020-2021 school year. The University of California (UC) System developed a set of recommendations to reduce campus infection rates. SARS-CoV-2 test results are summarized for the ten UC campuses during the Fall 2020 term.MethodsUC mitigation efforts included protocols for the arrival of students living on-campus students, non-pharmaceutical interventions, daily symptom monitoring, symptomatic testing, asymptomatic surveillance testing, isolation and quarantine protocols, student ambassador programs for health education, campus health and safety pledges, and lowered density of on-campus student housing. We used data from UC campuses, the UC Health-California Department of Public Health Data Modeling Consortium, and the U.S. Census to estimate the proportion of each campus' student populations that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and compared it to the fraction individuals aged 20-29 years who tested positive in their respective counties.ResultsSARS-CoV-2 cases in campus populations were generally low in September and October 2020, but increased in November and especially December, and were highest in early to mid-January 2021, mirroring case trajectories in their respective counties. Many students were infected during the Thanksgiving and winter holiday recesses and were detected as cases upon returning to campus. The proportion of students who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during Fall 2020 ranged from 1.2% to 5.2% for students living on campus and was similar to students living off campus. For most UC campuses the proportion of students testing positive was lower than that for the 20-29-year-old population in which campuses were located.ConclusionsThe layered mitigation approach used on UC campuses, informed by public health science and augmented perhaps by a more compliant population, likely minimized campus transmission and outbreaks and limited transmission to surrounding communities. University policies that include these mitigation efforts in Fall 2020 along with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, may alleviate some local concerns about college students returning to communities and facilitate resumption of normal campus operations and in-person instruction.

Dataset Information

Modelling the impact of presemester testing on COVID-19 outbreaks in university campuses.

Objectives

Design

Interventions

Primary outcomes

Setting

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Modelling the impact of presemester testing on COVID-19 outbreaks in university campuses.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets