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25,000 Years long seismic cycle in a slow deforming continental region of Mongolia.

ABSTRACT: The spatial distribution of large earthquakes in slowly deforming continental regions (SDCR) is poorly documented and, thus, has often been deemed to be random. Unlike in high strain regions, where seismic activity concentrates along major active faults, earthquakes in SDCR may seem to occur more erratically in space and time. This questions classical fault behavior models, posing paramount issues for seismic hazard assessment. Here, we investigate the M7, 1967, Mogod earthquake in Mongolia, a region recognized as a SDCR. Despite the absence of visible cumulative deformation at the ground surface, we found evidence for at least 3 surface rupturing earthquakes during the last 50,000 years, associated with a slip-rate of 0.06 ± 0.01 mm/year. These results show that in SDCR, like in faster deforming regions, deformation localizes on specific structures. However, the excessive length of return time for large earthquakes along these structures makes it more difficult to recognize earthquake series, and could conversely lead to the misconception that in SDCR earthquakes would be randomly located. Thus, our result emphasizes the need for systematic appraisal of the potential seismogenic structures in SDCR in order to lower the uncertainties associated with the seismogenic sources in seismic hazard models.

SUBMITTER: Bollinger L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8426405 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundA successful malaria control programme began in 2004 on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. From 2007, the same multiple malaria interventions, though reduced in scope for funding reasons, were introduced to the four mainland provinces of Equatorial Guinea (the continental region) aiming to recreate Bioko's success. Two provinces received long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and two provinces received biannual indoor residual spraying (IRS). Enhanced case management and communications were introduced throughout.MethodsEstimates of intervention coverage and indicators of malaria transmission for 2007 to 2011 were derived from annual malaria indicator surveys (MIS). Results were complemented by health information system (HIS) and entomological data. The personal protection offered by LLINs and IRS against Plasmodium falciparum infection was estimated with logistic regression.ResultsThe estimated proportion of children aged 1-4 using either an LLIN the previous night or living in a house sprayed in the last six months was 23% in 2007 and 42% in 2011. The estimated prevalence of P. falciparum in children aged 1-4 was 68% (N=1,770; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 58-76%) in 2007 and 52% (N=1,602; 95% CI: 44-61%) in 2011. Children 1-4 years had lower prevalence if they used an LLIN the previous night (N=1,124, 56%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.64, 95% CI: 0.55-0.74) or if they lived in a sprayed house (N=1,150, 57%; aOR 0.80, 95% CI: 0.62-1.03) compared to children with neither intervention (N=4,131, 66%, reference group). The minority of children who both used an LLIN and lived in a sprayed house had the lowest prevalence of infection (N=171, 45%; aOR 0.52, 95% CI: 0.35-0.78). High site-level intervention coverage did not always correlate with lower site-level P. falciparum prevalence. The malaria season peaked in either June or July, not necessarily coinciding with MIS data collection.ConclusionsThough moderate impact was achieved after five years of vector control, case management, and communications, prevalence remained high due to an inability to sufficiently scale-up coverage with either IRS or LLINs. Both LLINs and IRS provided individual protection, but greater protection was afforded to children who benefitted from both.

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25,000 Years long seismic cycle in a slow deforming continental region of Mongolia.

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