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External Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Survival and Benefit of Concurrent Chemoradiation for Stage II Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma.

ABSTRACT: A nomogram was recently published by Sun et al. to predict overall survival (OS) and the additional benefit of concurrent chemoradiation (CCRT) vs. radiotherapy (RT) alone, in stage II NPC treated with conventional RT. We aimed to assess the predictors of OS and to externally validate the nomogram in the IMRT era. We analyzed stage II NPC patients treated with definitive RT alone or CCRT between 2001 and 2011 under the territory-wide Hong Kong NPC Study Group 1301 study. Clinical parameters were studied using the Cox proportional hazards model to estimate OS. The nomogram by Sun et al. was applied with 1000 times bootstrap resampling to calculate the concordance index, and we compared the nomogram predicted and observed 5-year OS. There were 482 patients included. The 5-year OS was 89.0%. In the multivariable analysis, an age > 45 years was the only significant predictor of OS (HR, 1.98; 95%CI, 1.15-3.44). Other clinical parameters were insignificant, including the use of CCRT (HR, 0.99; 95%CI, 0.62-1.58). The nomogram yielded a concordance index of 0.55 (95% CI, 0.49-0.62) which lacked clinically meaningful discriminative power. The nomogram proposed by Sun et al. should be interpreted with caution when applied to stage II NPC patients in the IMRT era. The benefit of CCRT remained controversial.

SUBMITTER: Yip PL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8428339 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background: Medulloblastoma (MB) is a highly malignant neuroepithelial tumor occurring in the central nervous system. The objective of this study was to establish an effective prognostic nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of MB patients. Materials and methods: The nomogram was developed using data from a retrospective cohort of 280 medulloblastoma patients (aged 3-18 years) identified from Beijing Tiantan Hospital between 2016 and 2021 as the training cohort. To validate the performance of the nomogram, collaborations were formed with eight leading pediatric oncology centers across different regions of China. A total of 162 medulloblastoma patients meeting the inclusion criteria were enrolled from these collaborating centers. Cox regression analysis, best subsets regression, and Lasso regression were employed to select independent prognostic factors. The nomogram's prognostic effectiveness for overall survival was assessed using the concordance index, receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration curve. Results: In the training cohort, the selected variables through COX regression, best subsets regression, and Lasso regression, along with their clinical significance, included age, molecular subtype, histological type, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, metastasis, and hydrocephalus. The internally and externally validated C-indexes were 0.907 and 0.793, respectively. Calibration curves demonstrated the precise prediction of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS for MB patients using the nomogram. Conclusion: This study developed a nomogram that incorporates clinical and molecular factors to predict OS prognosis in medulloblastoma patients. The nomogram exhibited improved predictive accuracy compared to previous studies and demonstrated good performance in the external validation cohort. By considering multiple factors, clinicians can utilize this nomogram as a valuable tool for individualized prognosis prediction and treatment decision-making in medulloblastoma patients.

Project description:BackgroundThe present study aimed to construct a prognostic nomogram including Epstein-Barr virus DNA (EBV-DNA) and sarcopenia in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) receiving concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT).MethodsIn this retrospective analysis, we studied 1,045 patients with NPC who had been treated with CCRT between 2010 and 2014. Sarcopenia was determined using routine pre-radiotherapy computed tomography scans of the third cervical vertebrae. A new S-E grade was constructed using a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses determined cutoff values of sarcopenia and plasma EBV-DNA. The nomogram was developed base on the sarcopenia-EBV (S-E) grade and traditional prognostic factors. A calibration curve, time-dependent ROC, decision curve analysis, and the concordance index (C-index) determined the accuracy of prediction and discrimination of the nomogram, and were compared with TNM staging system and a traditional nomogram.ResultsPatient survival was significantly different when sarcopenia (P < 0.001) or EBV-DNA (P = 0.001) were used and they continued to be independent prognostic factors for survival upon univariate (P < 0.001, P = 0.002, respectively) and multivariate (P < 0.001, P = 0.015, respectively) analyses. Predicting overall survival (OS) was more accurate using the S-E grade than using TNM staging and sarcopenia or EBV-DNA alone. Nomogram B (model with sarcopenia) or nomogram A (model without sarcopenia) were then developed based on the identified independent prognostic factors. Comparing nomogram prediction with actual observation showed good agreement among the calibration curves for probability of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS. Predicted survival (C-index = 0.77) of nomogram B was statistically higher than that of nomogram A (0.676, P = 0.020) and TNM staging (0.604, P < 0.001). Risk group stratification could distinguish between survival curves within respective TNM stages (all stages, P < 0.001; stage III, P < 0.001; stage IV, P = 0.002).ConclusionsThe sarcopenia-EBV DNA nomogram allowed more accurate prediction of prognosis for patients with NPC receiving CCRT.

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External Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Survival and Benefit of Concurrent Chemoradiation for Stage II Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma.

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