Reemergent Cases of COVID-19 - Xinfadi Wholesales Market, Beijing Municipality, China, June 11, 2020.
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SUBMITTER: Tan W
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8428450 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jul
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Reemergent Cases of COVID-19 - Xinfadi Wholesales Market, Beijing Municipality, China, June 11, 2020.
Tan Wenjie W Niu Peihua P Zhao Xiang X Pan Yang Y Zhang Yong Y Chen Lijuan L Zhao Li L Wang Yanhai Y Wang Dayan D Han Jun J Gao George F GF Huang Chun C Xu Wenbo W Wu Guizhen G
China CDC weekly 20200701 27
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Project description:ObjectivesThe aim of the study was to reconstruct the complete transmission chain of the COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing's Xinfadi Market using data from epidemiological investigations, which contributes to reflecting transmission dynamics and transmission risk factors.MethodsWe set up a transmission model, and the model parameters are estimated from the survey data via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Bayesian data augmentation approaches are used to account for uncertainty in the source of infection, unobserved onset, and infection dates.ResultsThe rate of transmission of COVID-19 within households is 9.2%. Older people are more susceptible to infection. The accuracy of our reconstructed transmission chain was 67.26%. In the gathering place of this outbreak, the Beef and Mutton Trading Hall of Xinfadi market, most of the transmission occurs within 20 m, only 19.61% of the transmission occurs over a wider area (>20 m), with an overall average transmission distance of 13.00 m. The deepest transmission generation is 9. In this outbreak, there were 2 abnormally high transmission events.ConclusionsThe statistical method of reconstruction of transmission trees from incomplete epidemic data provides a valuable tool to help understand the complex transmission factors and provides a practical guideline for investigating the characteristics of the development of epidemics and the formulation of control measures.
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Project description:After 56 days without coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, reemergent cases were reported in Beijing, China on June 11, 2020. Here, we report the genetic characteristics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequenced from the clinical specimens of 4 human cases and 2 environmental samples. The nucleotide similarity among six SARS-CoV-2 genomes ranged from 99.98% to 99.99%. Compared with the reference strain of SARS-CoV-2 (GenBank No. NC_045512), all six genome sequences shared the same substitutions at nt241 (C → T), nt3037 (C → T), nt14408 (C → T), nt23403 (A → G), nt28881 (G → A), nt28882 (G → A), and nt28883 (G → C), which are the characteristic nucleotide substitutions of L-lineage European branch I. This was also proved by the maximum likelihood phylogenetic tree based on the full-length genome of SARS-CoV-2. They also have a unique shared nucleotide substitution, nt6026 (C → T), which is the characteristic nucleotide substitution of SARS-CoV-2 in Beijing's Xinfadi outbreak. It is noteworthy that there is an amino acid D614G mutation caused by nt23403 substitution in all six genomes, which may enhance the virus's infectivity in humans and help it become the leading strain of the virus to spread around the world today. It is necessary to continuously monitor the genetic variation of SARS-CoV-2, focusing on the influence of key mutation sites of SARS-CoV-2 on viral transmission, clinical manifestations, severity, and course of disease.
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Project description:BackgroundA local coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case confirmed on June 11, 2020 triggered an outbreak in Beijing, China after 56 consecutive days without a newly confirmed case. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were used to contain the source in Xinfadi (XFD) market. To rapidly control the outbreak, both traditional and newly introduced NPIs including large-scale management of high-risk populations and expanded severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) PCR-based screening in the general population were conducted in Beijing. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of the response to the COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing's XFD market and inform future response efforts of resurgence across regions.MethodsA modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model was developed and applied to evaluate a range of different scenarios from the public health perspective. Two outcomes were measured: magnitude of transmission (i.e., number of cases in the outbreak) and endpoint of transmission (i.e., date of containment). The outcomes of scenario evaluations were presented relative to the reality case (i.e., 368 cases in 34 days) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI).ResultsOur results indicated that a 3 to 14 day delay in the identification of XFD as the infection source and initiation of NPIs would have caused a 3 to 28-fold increase in total case number (31-77 day delay in containment). A failure to implement the quarantine scheme employed in the XFD outbreak for defined key population would have caused a fivefold greater number of cases (73 day delay in containment). Similarly, failure to implement the quarantine plan executed in the XFD outbreak for close contacts would have caused twofold greater transmission (44 day delay in containment). Finally, failure to implement expanded nucleic acid screening in the general population would have yielded 1.6-fold greater transmission and a 32 day delay to containment.ConclusionsThis study informs new evidence that in form the selection of NPI to use as countermeasures in response to a COVID-19 outbreak and optimal timing of their implementation. The evidence provided by this study should inform responses to future outbreaks of COVID-19 and future infectious disease outbreak preparedness efforts in China and elsewhere.
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