Dataset Information

Prognostic Score for De Novo Metastatic Breast Cancer With Liver Metastasis and Its Predictive Value of Locoregional Treatment Benefit.

ABSTRACT:

Background

There is a significant survival difference and lack of effective treatment among breast cancer patients with liver metastasis. This present study aimed to construct a novel prognostic score for predicting the prognosis and locoregional treatment benefit of de novo metastatic breast cancer with liver metastasis (BCLM).

Methods

In total, 2,398 eligible patients between 2010 and 2016 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. They were assigned to the training set including 1,662 patients (2010-2014) and validation set comprising 736 patients (2015-2016) depending on the time of diagnosis. The prognostic score was based on regression coefficients in the multivariate Cox regression analysis. And then, patients were stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups by the prognostic score. The discrimination and calibration of prognostic score were evaluated using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis and calibration curves, respectively. Subgroup analysis was performed to evaluate locoregional surgery and chemotherapy benefit in different risk groups.

Results

Age, race, insurance and marital status, T stage, pathological grade, molecular subtypes, and extrahepatic metastasis were identified as independent prognostic variables in the prognostic score. The prognostic score showed high discrimination power with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 and 0.72 and excellent agreement suggested by calibration plots in the training and validation sets, respectively. Intermediate-risk [hazard ratio (HR) 2.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.09-2.73, P<0.001] and high-risk groups (HR 4.88; 95% CI 4.13-5.76; P<0.001) had significantly worse prognosis in comparison with the low-risk group. The median overall survival (OS) in three prognostic groups were 44, 18, and 7 months, with a 3-year survival rate of 56, 23, and 7%, respectively. Apart from the high-risk group (HR 0.79; 95% CI 0.56-1.10; P=0.157), the low-risk (HR 0.64; 95% CI 0.49-0.84; P=0.001) and intermediate-risk groups (HR 0.68; 95% CI 0.55-0.85; P=0.001) could benefit from the surgery of primary site, while chemotherapy improved prognosis in all risk groups.

Conclusions

A prognostic score was developed to accurately predict the prognosis of de novo BCLM patients. Moreover, it may be useful for further subdividing them into different risk groups and helping guide clinicians in treatment decisions.

SUBMITTER: Ji L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8432710 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundThere is no clinically applicable prognostic model designed for patients with de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (mNPC) treated with chemotherapy followed by locoregional radiotherapy (LRRT). We sought to develop a predictive tool of overall survival for individualized prediction and risk stratification in this heterogeneous patient population.Patients and methodsA total of 244 eligible patients with de novo mNPC, who were treated with platinum-based first-line chemotherapy followed by LRRT, were included in this retrospective study. We divided patients into the training and validation sets based on the date of initial treatment, with 152 patients treated between 2008 and 2013 comprising the training set for model development and 92 patients treated at a later time (2014 to 2015) forming the validation set. We applied Cox proportional hazards model to examine factors associated with overall survival (OS). We developed and subsequently validated a prognostic model to predict OS. We assessed the performance of this prognostic model and stratified patients based on prognostic scores obtained from this proposed model.ResultsThe median OS of the entire cohort was 60.9 months. C-creative protein, number of metastatic sites, liver metastasis, post-treatment Epstein-Barr virus DNA, and response of metastasis were significantly associated with OS. A prognostic model for individual survival prediction was developed and graphically represented as a nomogram. The model showed favorable discrimination (C-index: 0.759), predictive accuracy [time dependent area under the curve (tAUC) at 5 years: 0.800], and calibration, and was further validated in an independent dataset. A risk stratification derived from the model can stratify these patients into three prognostic subgroups with significantly different survival.ConclusionWe developed and validated a prognostic model that exhibited adequate performance in individualized prediction and risk stratification for patients with de novo mNPC treated with chemotherapy followed by LRRT.

Project description:BackgroundGermline DNA damage repair gene mutations (gDDRm) have been found in approximately 12% of patients with metastatic prostate cancer (mPCa). Previous studies of the clinical impact of gDDRm have mainly been in the setting of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). This study aimed to determine the prognostic value of gDDRm in de novo metastatic and castration-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC).Materials and methodsWe retrospectively collected the records of 139 consecutive men with de novo mCSPC who initially received systemic therapies following guidelines. This included 128 patients who underwent genetic testing at our center and 11 patients referred to our center after being identified as gDDRm carriers. Time to mCRPC was collected. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank analysis were used to analyze the association between gDDRm and clinical outcomes. Survival outcomes were adjusted using multivariable Cox regression models.ResultsOf the 139 patients with de novo mCSPC, 28 gDDRm carriers were identified. Median time progressing to mCRPC was significantly shorter in patients carrying gDDRm than in those without mutations (8.3 vs 13.2 months; hazard ratio [HR], 2.37; p < .001). Moreover, median progression time was almost halved in BRCA2 carriers (6.3 vs. 13.2 months; HR, 3.73; p < .001). Subgroup analysis revealed that the presence of gDDRm indicated poor therapy response regardless of disease volume and prostate-specific antigen nadir within the first 7 months. Presence of gDDRm remained independently associated with increased risk of progression to mCRPC in multivariate analysis (adjusted HR, 1.98; p = .006).ConclusionOur study suggested that positive gDDRm status predicted rapid progression to castration resistance in patients with de novo mCSPC. We propose identifying gDDRm status at the time of diagnosis for mCSPC patients, considering it is the first step of tailoring individualized treatment. In addition, DNA repair genes were a good therapeutic target for poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitors, and our results call for more frontline targeted therapy trials in gDDRm carriers to prolong the progression time.Implications for practiceResults of this study suggested that positive germline DNA damage repair gene mutation (gDDRm) status predicted earlier progression to castration resistance in patients with de novo metastatic and castration-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC). These findings indicated the importance of intense therapy for some subgroups of mCSPC, especially for mCSPC harboring gDDRm with low-volume disease. Moreover, gDDRm was a good therapeutic target for poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitors, and these findings call for more molecular marker driven trials moving to the mTNPC setting.