Project description:Although exposure to overweight and obesity at different ages is associated to a higher risk of type 2 diabetes, the effect of different patterns of exposure through life remains unclear. We aimed to characterize life-course trajectories of weight categories and estimate their impact on the incidence of type 2 diabetes. We categorized the weight of 7203 participants as lean, normal or overweight at five time-points from ages 7-55 using retrospective data. Participants were followed for an average of 19 years for the development of type 2 diabetes. We used latent class analysis to describe distinctive trajectories and estimated the risk ratio, absolute risk difference and population attributable fraction (PAF) associated to different trajectories using Poisson regression. We found five distinctive life-course trajectories. Using the stable-normal weight trajectory as reference, the stable overweight, lean increasing weight, overweight from early adulthood and overweight from late adulthood trajectories were associated to higher risk of type 2 diabetes. The estimated risk ratios and absolute risk differences were statistically significant for all trajectories, except for the risk ratio of the lean increasing trajectory group among men. Of the 981 incident cases of type 2 diabetes, 47.4% among women and 42.9% among men were attributable to exposure to any life-course trajectory different from stable normal weight. Most of the risk was attributable to trajectories including overweight or obesity at any point of life (36.8% of the cases among women and 36.7% among men). The overweight from early adulthood trajectory had the highest impact (PAF: 23.2% for woman and 28.5% for men). We described five distinctive life-course trajectories of weight that were associated to increased risk of type 2 diabetes over 19 years of follow-up. The variability of the effect of exposure to overweight and obesity on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes was largely explained by exposure to the different life-course trajectories of weight.
Project description:Background and aimsIn this analysis, we estimated population-level trajectory groups of life course cardiovascular risk to explore their impact on mid-life atherosclerotic and metabolic outcomes.MethodsThis prospective study followed n = 1269 Bogalusa Heart participants, each with at least 4 study visits from childhood in 1973 through adulthood in 2016. We used discrete mixture modeling to determine trajectories of cardiovascular risk percentiles from childhood to adulthood. Outcomes included mid-life subclinical atherosclerotic measures [(carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), pulse wave velocity (PWV)], metabolic indicators [(diabetes and body mass index (BMI)], and short physical performance battery (SPPB).ResultsBetween the mean ages of 9.6-48.3 years, we estimated five distinct trajectory groups of life course cardiovascular risk (High-Low, High-High, Mid-Low, Low-Low, and Low-High). Adult metabolic and vascular outcomes were significantly determined by life course cardiovascular risk trajectory groups (all p < 0.01). Those in the High-Low group had lower risks of diabetes (20% vs. 28%, respectively; p = .12) and lower BMIs (32.4 kg/m2vs. 34.6 kg/m2; p = .06) than those who remained at high risk (High-High) throughout life. However, the High-Low group had better cIMT (0.89 mm vs. 1.05 mm; p < .0001) and PWV (7.8 m/s vs. 8.2 m/s; p = .03) than the High-High group. For all outcomes, those in the Low-Low group fared best.ConclusionsWe found considerable movement between low- and high-relative cardiovascular risk strata over the life course. Children who improved their relative cardiovascular risk over the life course achieved better mid-life atherosclerotic health despite maintaining relatively poor metabolic health through adulthood.
Project description:The aetiologies of obesity and type 2 diabetes are incredibly complex, but the potential role of paternal influences remains relatively understudied. A better understanding of paternal influences on offspring risk of obesity and type 2 diabetes could have profound implications for public health, clinical practice and society. In this review, we outline potential biological and social mechanisms through which fathers might exert an impact on the health of their offspring. We also present a systematically compiled overview of the current evidence linking paternal factors to offspring development of obesity and type 2 diabetes throughout the life course. Although evidence is accumulating to support paternal associations with offspring outcomes, more high-quality research is needed to overcome specific methodological challenges and provide stronger causal evidence.
Project description:BackgroundBlood pressure levels are correlated with diabetes among middle-aged or older adults. However, longitudinal trajectories of blood pressure during young adulthood and their impact on diabetes have been insufficiently studied.MethodsThe longitudinal cohort consisted of 4,625 adults who had blood pressure and body mass index (BMI) repeatedly measured five to nine times during 18-60 years of age. Distinct systolic blood pressure (SBP) trajectories were identified by a group-based trajectory model. Logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the association between trajectory patterns or quartiles of area under the curve values of SBP trajectories and incident diabetes, respectively.ResultsFour distinct trajectory groups were identified for SBP: normotensive-stable (n = 761, 16.5%), prehypertension-stable (n = 2,381, 51.5%), stage I hypertension-increasing (n = 1,231, 26.6%), and stage II hypertension-increasing (n = 251, 5.4%). Compared with subjects who remained at SBP <120 mmHg in the normotensive-stable group, individuals in the prehypertension-stable trajectory exhibited a normal SBP range (<140 mmHg), and they still had a significantly higher risk of diabetes (adjusted OR = 1.82, p = 0.029). Individuals had a greater risk of diabetes in the stage I hypertension-increasing group (adjusted OR = 2.31, p = 0.006) and the highest risk in the stage II hypertension-increasing group (adjusted OR = 3.91, p < 0.001) relative to the normotensive-stable group. Furthermore, compared with the first quartile, adjusted ORs (95% CIs) of the fourth quartile of SBP incremental and total AUC were 2.50 (1.61-3.97) and 1.82 (1.15-2.94), respectively.ConclusionsLong-term SBP trajectory is a significant predictor for incident diabetes, which is independent of baseline SBP and body weight, attaching importance to maintaining optimal blood pressure levels and controlling changing slopes of SBP for preventing diabetes.
Project description:AimsTo determine diabetic retinopathy (DR) prevalence, incidence, and whether distinct trajectories are associated with DR-complicating Type 2 diabetes.MethodsRetinal photographs from Fremantle Diabetes Study Phase II (FDS2) participants with Type 2 diabetes recruited in 2008-2011 and who attended biennial assessments for up to 6 years were graded as no DR, mild non-proliferative DR (NPDR), moderate NPDR or severe NPDR/proliferative DR. Baseline DR prevalence, and the cumulative incidence of moderate NPDR or worse in those without DR at baseline, were calculated. Group-based DR trajectory modelling was performed. Logistic regression determined independent associates of incident moderate NPDR or worse and trajectory group membership.ResultsOf 1521 participants (mean age 65.6 years, 52.1% males, median diabetes duration 9.0 years; 98% of all FDS2 participants with Type 2 diabetes) with gradable baseline photographs, 563 (37.0%) had DR. During a median 6.1 years of follow-up, 23 (3.2%) without baseline DR developed at least moderate NPDR (crude incidence 6.1/1000 person-years) with HbA1c the sole independent predictor (odds ratio [95% CI]: 1.62 [1.30-2.02] per 1% [11 mmol/mol] increase). Trajectory analysis showed two distinct groups, those with baseline/persistent DR (20%) and those remaining DR free (80%). Longer diabetes duration, insulin use, higher mean HbA1c , higher mean systolic blood pressure and higher mean urinary albumin: creatinine ratio all increased the odds (p ≤ 0.014) of being in the persistent DR trajectory group.ConclusionsThe low incidence of at least moderate NPDR reflects the trajectory analysis. The currently recommended biennial retinal screening frequency for individuals without DR could potentially be extended.
Project description:The drop in blood pressure during pregnancy may persist postpartum, but the impact of pregnancy on blood pressure across the life course is not known. In this study we examined blood pressure trajectories for women in the years preceding and following pregnancy and compared life course trajectories of blood pressure for parous and nulliparous women. We linked information on all women who participated in the population-based, longitudinal HUNT Study, Norway with pregnancy information from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway. A total of 23,438 women were included with up to 3 blood pressure measurements per woman. Blood pressure trajectories were compared using a mixed effects linear spline model. Before first pregnancy, women who later gave birth had similar mean blood pressure to women who never gave birth. Women who delivered experienced a drop after their first birth of - 3.32 mmHg (95% CI, - 3.93, - 2.71) and - 1.98 mmHg (95% CI, - 2.43, - 1.53) in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, respectively. Subsequent pregnancies were associated with smaller reductions. These pregnancy-related reductions in blood pressure led to persistent differences in mean blood pressure, and at age 50, parous women still had lower systolic (- 1.93 mmHg; 95% CI, - 3.33, - 0.53) and diastolic (- 1.36 mmHg; 95% CI, - 2.26, - 0.46) blood pressure compared to nulliparous women. The findings suggest that the first pregnancy and, to a lesser extent, successive pregnancies are associated with lasting and clinically relevant reductions in systolic and diastolic blood pressure.
Project description:Background and aimsAlcohol consumption changes markedly over the life course, with important implications for health and social development. Assessment of these patterns often relies on cross-sectional data, which cannot fully capture how individuals' drinking changes as they age. This study used data from 18 waves of a general population panel survey to measure drinking trajectories over the life course in Australia.Design and settingLongitudinal survey data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey between 2001 and 2018.ParticipantsA total of 20 593 individuals ages 15 or above in two samples assessing quantity-frequency (n = 20 569, 52.0% female) and risky single occasion drinking (RSOD), respectively, (n = 17 340, 52.5% female), interviewed as part of HILDA.MeasurementsUsual quantity of alcohol consumed per drinking occasion; frequency of drinking occasions per week; average daily consumption, calculated by combining reported usual quantity and frequency; and average reported frequency of RSOD per week.FindingsMultilevel, mixed effects models run with fractional polynomial terms found similar male and female alcohol consumption trajectories for quantity-frequency and RSOD measures. Usual quantity of alcohol consumed per drinking occasion (5.4 drinks for men, 3.8 for women) and RSOD frequency (0.56 occasions/week for men, 0.38 for women) peaked in young adulthood, whereas frequency of drinking occasions (2.5 occasions/week for men, 1.7 for women) peaked in middle age. Middle-age drinkers had the highest average daily consumption of alcohol (1.4 drinks/day for 54-year-old men, 0.6 drinks for 57-year-old women) and engaged in RSOD slightly less than young adults.ConclusionsAlcohol consumption in Australia appears to vary substantially over the life course, with usual quantity per drinking occasion and frequency of risky single occasion drinking peaking during early adulthood and average daily consumption and frequency of consumption peaking in middle age.
Project description:AimsAs populations are ageing worldwide, it is important to identify strategies to promote successful ageing. We investigate how working conditions throughout working life are associated with successful ageing in later life.MethodsData from two nationally representative longitudinal Swedish surveys were linked (n=674). In 1991, respondents were asked about their first occupation, occupations at ages 25, 30, 35, 40, 45 and 50 years and their last recorded occupation. Occupations were matched with job exposure matrices to measure working conditions at each of these time points. Random effects growth curve models were used to calculate intra-individual trajectories of working conditions. Successful ageing, operationalised using an index including social and leisure activity, cognitive and physical function and the absence of diseases, was measured at follow-up in 2014 (age 70 years and older). Multivariable ordered logistic regressions were used to assess the association between trajectories of working conditions and successful ageing.ResultsIntellectually stimulating work; that is, substantive complexity, in the beginning of one's career followed by an accumulation of more intellectually stimulating work throughout working life was associated with higher levels of successful ageing. In contrast, a history of stressful, hazardous or physically demanding work was associated with lower levels of successful ageing.Conclusions