Estimating the health and economic effects of the voluntary sodium reduction targets in Brazil: microsimulation analysis.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Excessive sodium consumption is one of the leading dietary risk factors for non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), mediated by high blood pressure. Brazil has implemented voluntary sodium reduction targets with food industries since 2011. This study aimed to analyse the potential health and economic impact of these sodium reduction targets in Brazil from 2013 to 2032.Methods
We developed a microsimulation of a close-to-reality synthetic population (IMPACTNCD-BR) to evaluate the potential health benefits of setting voluntary upper limits for sodium content as part of the Brazilian government strategy. The model estimates CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, and disease treatment costs. Model inputs were informed by the 2013 National Health Survey, the 2008-2009 Household Budget Survey, and high-quality meta-analyses, assuming that all individuals were exposed to the policy proportionally to their sodium intake from processed food. Costs included costs of the National Health System on CVD treatment and informal care costs. The primary outcome measures of the model are cardiovascular disease cases and deaths prevented or postponed over 20 years (2013-2032), stratified by age and sex.Results
The study found that the application of the Brazilian voluntary sodium targets for packaged foods between 2013 and 2032 could prevent or postpone approximately 110,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty intervals (UI): 28,000 to 260,000) among men and 70,000 cases among women (95% UI: 16,000 to 170,000), and also prevent or postpone approximately 2600 CVD deaths (95% UI: - 1000 to 11,000), 55% in men. The policy could also produce a net cost saving of approximately US$ 220 million (95% UI: US$ 54 to 520 million) in medical costs to the Brazilian National Health System for the treatment of CHD and stroke and save approximately US$ 71 million (95% UI: US$ 17 to170 million) in informal costs.Conclusion
Brazilian voluntary sodium targets could generate substantial health and economic impacts. The reduction in sodium intake that was likely achieved from the voluntary targets indicates that sodium reduction in Brazil must go further and faster to achieve the national and World Health Organization goals for sodium intake.
SUBMITTER: Nilson EAF
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8479920 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Background: Sodium consumption is a modifiable risk factor for higher blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed voluntary sodium reduction goals targeting processed and commercially prepared foods. We aimed to quantify the potential health and economic impact of this policy.Methods and findings: We used a microsimulation approach of a close-to-reality synthetic population (US IMPACT Food Policy Model) to estimate CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost-effectiveness from 2017 to 2036 of 3 scenarios: (1) optimal, 100% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; (2) modest, 50% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; and (3) pessimistic, 100% compliance with 2-year reformulation targets, but with no further progress. We used the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and high-quality meta-analyses to inform model inputs. Costs included government costs to administer and monitor the policy, industry reformulation costs, and CVD-related healthcare, productivity, and informal care costs. Between 2017 and 2036, the optimal reformulation scenario achieving the FDA sodium reduction targets could prevent approximately 450,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty interval: 240,000 to 740,000), gain approximately 2.1 million discounted QALYs (1.7 million to 2.4 million), and produce discounted cost savings (health savings minus policy costs) of approximately $41 billion ($14 billion to $81 billion). In the modest and pessimistic scenarios, health gains would be 1.1 million and 0.7 million QALYS, with savings of $19 billion and $12 billion, respectively. All the scenarios were estimated with more than 80% probability to be cost-effective (incremental cost/QALY < $100,000) by 2021 and to become cost-saving by 2031. Limitations include evaluating only diseases mediated through BP, while decreasing sodium consumption could have beneficial effects upon other health burdens such as gastric cancer. Further, the effect estimates in the model are based on interventional and prospective observational studies. They are therefore subject to biases and confounding that may have influenced also our model estimates.Conclusions: Implementing and achieving the FDA sodium reformulation targets could generate substantial health gains and net cost savings.
| S-EPMC5892867 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHigh intake of added sugar is linked to weight gain and cardiometabolic risk. In 2018, the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative proposed government-supported voluntary national sugar reduction targets. This intervention's potential effects and cost-effectiveness are unclear.MethodsA validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), coded in C++, was used to estimate incremental changes in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative policy. The model was run at the individual level, incorporating the annual probability of each person's transition between health statuses on the basis of risk factors. The model incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey across 3 cycles (2011 through 2016), added sugar-related diseases from meta-analyses, and policy costs and health-related costs from established sources. A simulated nationally representative US population was created and followed until age 100 years or death, with 2019 as the year of intervention start. Findings were evaluated over 10 years and a lifetime from health care and societal perspectives. Uncertainty was evaluated in a 1-way analysis by assuming 50% industry compliance and probabilistic sensitivity analyses through a second-order Monte Carlo approach. Model outputs included averted diabetes cases, CVD events and CVD deaths, QALYs gained, and formal health care cost savings, stratified by age, race, income, and education.ResultsAchieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reduction targets could prevent 2.48 million CVD events, 0.49 million CVD deaths, and 0.75 million diabetes cases; gain 6.67 million QALYs; and save $160.88 billion net costs from a societal perspective over a lifetime. The policy became cost-effective (<150 000/QALYs) at 6 years, highly cost-effective (<50 000/QALYs) at 7 years, and cost-saving at 9 years. Results were robust from a health care perspective, with lower (50%) industry compliance, and in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The policy could also reduce disparities, with greatest estimated health gains per million adults among Black or Hispanic individuals, lower income, and less educated Americans.ConclusionsImplementing and achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reformation targets could generate substantial health gains, equity gains, and cost savings.
| S-EPMC8555680 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Policy Points The World Health Organization has recommended sodium reduction as a "best buy" to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD). Despite this, Congress has temporarily blocked the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) from implementing voluntary industry targets for sodium reduction in processed foods, the implementation of which could cost the industry around $16 billion over 10 years. We modeled the health and economic impact of meeting the two-year and ten-year FDA targets, from the perspective of people working in the food system itself, over 20 years, from 2017 to 2036. Benefits of implementing the FDA voluntary sodium targets extend to food companies and food system workers, and the value of CVD-related health gains and cost savings are together greater than the government and industry costs of reformulation. CONTEXT:The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) set draft voluntary targets to reduce sodium levels in processed foods. We aimed to determine cost effectiveness of meeting these draft sodium targets, from the perspective of US food system workers. METHODS:We employed a microsimulation cost-effectiveness analysis using the US IMPACT Food Policy model with two scenarios: (1) short term, achieving two-year FDA reformulation targets only, and (2) long term, achieving 10-year FDA reformulation targets. We modeled four close-to-reality populations: food system "ever" workers; food system "current" workers in 2017; and subsets of processed food "ever" and "current" workers. Outcomes included cardiovascular disease cases prevented and postponed as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from 2017 to 2036. FINDINGS:Among food system ever workers, achieving long-term sodium reduction targets could produce 20-year health gains of approximately 180,000 QALYs (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 150,000 to 209,000) and health cost savings of approximately $5.2 billion (95% UI: $3.5 billion to $8.3 billion), with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $62,000 (95% UI: $1,000 to $171,000) per QALY gained. For the subset of processed food industry workers, health gains would be approximately 32,000 QALYs (95% UI: 27,000 to 37,000); cost savings, $1.0 billion (95% UI: $0.7bn to $1.6bn); and ICER, $486,000 (95% UI: $148,000 to $1,094,000) per QALY gained. Because many health benefits may occur in individuals older than 65 or the uninsured, these health savings would be shared among individuals, industry, and government. CONCLUSIONS:The benefits of implementing the FDA voluntary sodium targets extend to food companies and food system workers, with the value of health gains and health care cost savings outweighing the costs of reformulation, although not for the processed food industry.
| S-EPMC6739614 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: High sodium intake is a leading modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. This study estimated full compliance to Canada's voluntary sodium reduction guidance (SRG) targets on social inequities and population sodium intake. Methods: We conducted a modeling study using n = 19,645, 24 h dietary recalls (Canadians ≥ 2 years) from the 2015 Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition (2015 CCHS-N). Multivariable linear regressions were used to estimate mean sodium intake in measured (in the 2015 CCHS-N) and modelled (achieving SRG targets) scenarios across education, income and food security. The percentage of Canadians with sodium intakes above chronic disease risk reduction (CDRR) thresholds was estimated using the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) method. Results: In children aged 2-8, achieving SRG targets reduced mean sodium intake differences between food secure and insecure households from 271 mg/day (95%CI: 75,468) to 83 mg/day (95%CI: -45,212); a finding consistent across education and income. Mean sodium intake inequities between low and high education households were eliminated for females aged 9-18 (96 mg/day, 95%CI: -149,341) and adults aged 19 and older (males: 148 mg/day, 95%CI: -30,327; female: -45 mg/day, 95%CI: -141,51). Despite these declines (after achieving the SRG targets) the majority of Canadians' are above the CDRR thresholds. Conclusion: Achieving SRG targets would eliminate social inequities in sodium intake and reduce population sodium intake overall; however, additional interventions are required to reach recommended sodium levels.
| S-EPMC7997239 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThis study estimates the health, economic, and budgetary impact resulting from graduated sodium reductions in the commercially produced food supply of the U.S., which are consistent with draft U.S. Food and Drug Administration voluntary guidance and correspond to Healthy People 2020 objectives and the 2015-2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans.MethodsReduction in mean U.S. dietary sodium consumption to 2,300 mg/day was implemented in a microsimulation model designed to evaluate prospective cardiovascular disease-related policies in the U.S.PopulationThe analysis was conducted in 2018-2020, and the microsimulation model was constructed using various data sources from 1948 to 2018. Modeled outcomes over 10 years included prevalence of systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg; incident myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiovascular disease events, and cardiovascular disease-related mortality; averted medical costs by payer in 2017 U.S. dollars; and productivity.ResultsReducing sodium consumption is expected to reduce the number of people with systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg by about 22% and prevent approximately 895.2 thousand cardiovascular disease events (including 218.9 thousand myocardial infarctions and 284.5 thousand strokes) and 252.5 thousand cardiovascular disease-related deaths over 10 years in the U.S. Savings from averted disease costs are expected to total almost $37 billion-most of which would be attributed to Medicare ($18.4 billion) and private insurers ($13.4 billion)-and increased productivity from reduced disease burden and premature mortality would account for another $18.2 billion in gains.ConclusionsSystemic sodium reductions in the U.S. food supply can be expected to produce substantial health and economic benefits over a 10-year period, particularly for Medicare and private insurers.
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Project description:IntroductionOsteoporosis is a systemic skeletal disease that is characterised by reduced bone strength and increased fracture risk. Osteoporosis-related fractures impose enormous disease and economic burden to the society. Although many treatments and health interventions are proven effective to prevent fractures, health economic evaluation adds evidence to their economic merits. Computer simulation modelling is a useful approach to extrapolate clinical and economic outcomes from clinical trials and it is increasingly used in health economic evaluation. Many osteoporosis health economic models have been developed in the past decades; however, they are limited to academic use and there are no publicly accessible health economic models of osteoporosis.Methods and analysisWe will develop the Australian osteoporosis health economic model based on our previously published microsimulation model of osteoporosis in the Chinese population. The development of the model will follow the recommendations for the conduct of economic evaluations in osteoporosis by the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases and the US branch of the International Osteoporosis Foundation. The model will be a state-transition semi-Markov model with memory. Clinical parameters in the model will be mainly obtained from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study and the health economic parameters will be collected from the Australian arm of the International Costs and Utilities Related to Osteoporotic Fractures Study. Model transparency and validates will be tested using the recommendations from Good Research Practices in Modelling Task Forces. The model will be used in economic evaluations of osteoporosis interventions including pharmaceutical treatments and primary care interventions. A user-friendly graphical user interface will be developed, which will connect the user to the calculation engine and the results will be generated. The user interface will facilitate the use of our model by people in different sectors.Ethics and disseminationNo ethical approval is needed for this study. Results of the model validation and future economic evaluation studies will be submitted to journals. The user interface of the health economic model will be publicly available online accompanied with a user manual.
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Project description:IntroductionHigher and lower-middle income countries are increasingly affected by obesity. Obesity-related diseases are placing a substantial health and economic burden on Brazil. Our aim is to measure the future consequences of these trends on the associated disease burden and health care costs.MethodA previously developed micro-simulation model is used to project the extent of obesity, obesity-related diseases and associated healthcare costs to 2050. In total, thirteen diseases were considered: coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, diabetes, osteoarthritis, and eight cancers. We simulated three hypothetical intervention scenarios: no intervention, 1% and 5% reduction in body mass index (BMI).ResultsIn 2010, nearly 57% of the Brazilian male population was overweight or obese (BMI ≥25 kg/m(2)), but the model projects rates as high as 95% by 2050. A slightly less pessimistic picture is predicted for females, increasing from 43% in 2010 to 52% in 2050. Coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, cancers, osteoarthritis and diabetes prevalence cases are projected to at least double by 2050, reaching nearly 34,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 (per 100,000). 1% and 5% reduction in mean BMI will save over 800 prevalence cases and nearly 3,000 cases of hypertension by 2050 respectively (per 100,000). The health care costs will double from 2010 ($5.8 billion) in 2050 alone ($10.1 billion). Over 40 years costs will reach $330 billion. However, with effective interventions the costs can be reduced to $302 billion by 1% and to $273 billion by 5% reduction in mean BMI across the population.ConclusionObesity rates are rapidly increasing creating a high burden of disease and associated costs. However, an effective intervention to decrease obesity by just 1% will substantially reduce obesity burden and will have a significant effect on health care expenditure.
| S-EPMC3708916 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSince 2015, a major economic crisis in Brazil has led to increasing poverty and the implementation of long-term fiscal austerity measures that will substantially reduce expenditure on social welfare programmes as a percentage of the country's GDP over the next 20 years. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP)-one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world-and the nationwide primary healthcare strategy (Estratégia Saúde da Família [ESF]) are affected by fiscal austerity, despite being among the policy interventions with the strongest estimated impact on child mortality in the country. We investigated how reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF-compared to an alternative scenario where the level of social protection under these programmes is maintained-may affect the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and socioeconomic inequalities in child health in the country until 2030, the end date of the Sustainable Development Goals.Methods and findingsWe developed and validated a microsimulation model, creating a synthetic cohort of all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities for the period 2017-2030. This model was based on the longitudinal dataset and effect estimates from a previously published study that evaluated the effects of poverty, the BFP, and the ESF on child health. We forecast the economic crisis and the effect of reductions in BFP and ESF coverage due to current fiscal austerity on the U5MR, and compared this scenario with a scenario where these programmes maintain the levels of social protection by increasing or decreasing with the size of Brazil's vulnerable populations (policy response scenarios). We used fixed effects multivariate regression models including BFP and ESF coverage and accounting for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, and programme duration effects. With the maintenance of the levels of social protection provided by the BFP and ESF, in the most likely economic crisis scenario the U5MR is expected to be 8.57% (95% CI: 6.88%-10.24%) lower in 2030 than under fiscal austerity-a cumulative 19,732 (95% CI: 10,207-29,285) averted under-five deaths between 2017 and 2030. U5MRs from diarrhoea, malnutrition, and lower respiratory tract infections are projected to be 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9%-41.8%), 35.8% (95% CI: 31.5%-39.9%), and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.1%-12.0%) lower, respectively, in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF coverage, with 123,549 fewer under-five hospitalisations from all causes over the study period. Reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF will also disproportionately affect U5MR in the most vulnerable areas, with the U5MR in the poorest quintile of municipalities expected to be 11.0% (95% CI: 8.0%-13.8%) lower in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of social protection than under fiscal austerity, compared to no difference in the richest quintile. Declines in health inequalities over the last decade will also stop under a fiscal austerity scenario: the U5MR concentration index is expected to remain stable over the period 2017-2030, compared to a 13.3% (95% CI: 5.6%-21.8%) reduction under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of protection. Limitations of our analysis are the ecological nature of the study, uncertainty around future macroeconomic scenarios, and potential changes in other factors affecting child health. A wide range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to minimise these limitations.ConclusionsThe implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Brazil can be responsible for substantively higher childhood morbidity and mortality than expected under maintenance of social protection-threatening attainment of Sustainable Development Goals for child health and reducing inequality.
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Project description:BackgroundIf untreated, Lyme disease can lead to long-term sequelae and post-treatment Lyme disease syndrome (PTLDS), resulting in reduced health-related quality of life. The objective of this study was to develop a microsimulation model to estimate the population-level health burden of Lyme disease in Ontario, Canada.MethodsWe developed a Lyme disease history model using microsimulation, simulating 100 000 people (mean age 37.6 yr, 51% female) from 2017 in Ontario over a lifetime risk of infection and time horizon. We extracted the sensitivity and specificity of the 2-tier testing recommended by the Canadian Public Health Laboratory Network, probabilities and health state utility values from the published literature and health administrative data. Our reported outcomes from our stochastic analysis include diagnosed cases of Lyme disease (stratified by stage), undiagnosed infections, sequelae, individuals with PTLDS and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost.ResultsOur model estimated 333 (95% confidence interval [CI] 329-337) infections over the lifetime of 100 000 simulated people (mean age 37.6 yr, 51% female), with 92% (95% CI 91%-93%) of infections diagnosed. Of those 308 people with Lyme Disease diagnoses, 67 (95% CI 65-69) developed sequelae (e.g., arthritic, cardiac, neurologic sequelae), and 34 (95% CI 33-35) developed PTLDS. Lyme disease resulted in a loss of 84.5 QALYs (95% CI 82.9-86.2) over the lifetime of the simulated cohort. Sensitivity and scenario analysis showed that increasing incidence rates of Lyme disease, potential underreporting, duration of PTLDS and quality of life (health state utility) associated with PTLDS had the greatest impact on health burden.InterpretationLyme disease contributes considerable health burden in terms of QALYs lost. Our analysis provides evidence to understand the disease burden and lays the foundation to assess the cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions.
| S-EPMC8598239 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES:Excessive consumption of added sugars in the human diet has been associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes (T2D), coronary heart disease (CHD) and other elements of the metabolic syndrome. Recent studies have shown that non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a critical pathway to metabolic syndrome. This model assesses the health and economic benefits of interventions aimed at reducing intake of added sugars. METHODS:Using data from US National Health Surveys and current literature, we simulated an open cohort, for the period 2015-2035. We constructed a microsimulation model with Markov chains for NAFLD (including steatosis, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)), body mass index, T2D and CHD. We assessed reductions in population disease prevalence, disease-attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and costs, with interventions that reduce added sugars consumption by either 20% or 50%. FINDINGS:The model estimated that a 20% reduction in added sugars intake will reduce prevalence of hepatic steatosis, NASH, cirrhosis, HCC, obesity, T2D and CHD. Incidence of T2D and CHD would be expected to decrease by 19.9 (95% CI 12.8 to 27.0) and 9.4 (95% CI 3.1 to 15.8) cases per 100?000 people after 20 years, respectively. A 20% reduction in consumption is also projected to annually avert 0.767?million (M) DALYs (95%?CI 0.757M to 0.777M) and a total of US$10.3?billion (B) (95%?CI 10.2B to 10.4B) in discounted direct medical costs by 2035. These effects increased proportionally when added sugars intake were reduced by 50%. CONCLUSIONS:The decrease in incidence and prevalence of disease is similar to results in other models, but averted costs and DALYs were higher, mainly due to inclusion of NAFLD and CHD. The model suggests that efforts to reduce consumption of added sugars may result in significant public health and economic benefits.
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