Dataset Information

Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: A nationwide microsimulation study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Since 2015, a major economic crisis in Brazil has led to increasing poverty and the implementation of long-term fiscal austerity measures that will substantially reduce expenditure on social welfare programmes as a percentage of the country's GDP over the next 20 years. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP)-one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world-and the nationwide primary healthcare strategy (Estratégia Saúde da Família [ESF]) are affected by fiscal austerity, despite being among the policy interventions with the strongest estimated impact on child mortality in the country. We investigated how reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF-compared to an alternative scenario where the level of social protection under these programmes is maintained-may affect the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and socioeconomic inequalities in child health in the country until 2030, the end date of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Methods and findings

We developed and validated a microsimulation model, creating a synthetic cohort of all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities for the period 2017-2030. This model was based on the longitudinal dataset and effect estimates from a previously published study that evaluated the effects of poverty, the BFP, and the ESF on child health. We forecast the economic crisis and the effect of reductions in BFP and ESF coverage due to current fiscal austerity on the U5MR, and compared this scenario with a scenario where these programmes maintain the levels of social protection by increasing or decreasing with the size of Brazil's vulnerable populations (policy response scenarios). We used fixed effects multivariate regression models including BFP and ESF coverage and accounting for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, and programme duration effects. With the maintenance of the levels of social protection provided by the BFP and ESF, in the most likely economic crisis scenario the U5MR is expected to be 8.57% (95% CI: 6.88%-10.24%) lower in 2030 than under fiscal austerity-a cumulative 19,732 (95% CI: 10,207-29,285) averted under-five deaths between 2017 and 2030. U5MRs from diarrhoea, malnutrition, and lower respiratory tract infections are projected to be 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9%-41.8%), 35.8% (95% CI: 31.5%-39.9%), and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.1%-12.0%) lower, respectively, in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF coverage, with 123,549 fewer under-five hospitalisations from all causes over the study period. Reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF will also disproportionately affect U5MR in the most vulnerable areas, with the U5MR in the poorest quintile of municipalities expected to be 11.0% (95% CI: 8.0%-13.8%) lower in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of social protection than under fiscal austerity, compared to no difference in the richest quintile. Declines in health inequalities over the last decade will also stop under a fiscal austerity scenario: the U5MR concentration index is expected to remain stable over the period 2017-2030, compared to a 13.3% (95% CI: 5.6%-21.8%) reduction under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of protection. Limitations of our analysis are the ecological nature of the study, uncertainty around future macroeconomic scenarios, and potential changes in other factors affecting child health. A wide range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to minimise these limitations.

Conclusions

The implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Brazil can be responsible for substantively higher childhood morbidity and mortality than expected under maintenance of social protection-threatening attainment of Sustainable Development Goals for child health and reducing inequality.

SUBMITTER: Rasella D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5963760 | biostudies-literature | 2018 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: A nationwide microsimulation study.

Rasella Davide D Basu Sanjay S Hone Thomas T Paes-Sousa Romulo R Ocké-Reis Carlos Octávio CO Millett Christopher C

PLoS medicine 20180522 5

<h4>Background</h4>Since 2015, a major economic crisis in Brazil has led to increasing poverty and the implementation of long-term fiscal austerity measures that will substantially reduce expenditure on social welfare programmes as a percentage of the country's GDP over the next 20 years. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP)-one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world-and the nationwide primary healthcare strategy (Estratégia Saúde da Família [ESF]) are affected by fiscal a ...[more]

PMID: 29787574

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Project description:BackgroundBrazil's Estratégia Saúde da Família (ESF) is one of the largest and most robustly evaluated primary healthcare programmes of the world, but it could be affected by fiscal austerity measures and by the possible end of the Mais Médicos programme (MMP)-a major intervention to increase primary care doctors in underserved areas. We forecast the impact of alternative scenarios of ESF coverage changes on under-70 mortality from ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs) until 2030, the date for achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).MethodA synthetic cohort of 5507 Brazilian municipalities was created for the period 2017-2030. A municipal-level microsimulation model was developed and validated using longitudinal data and estimates from a previous retrospective study evaluating the effects of municipal ESF coverage on mortality rates. Reductions in ESF coverage, and its effects on ACSC mortality, were forecast based on two probable austerity scenarios, compared with the maintenance of the current coverage or the expansion to 100%. Fixed effects longitudinal regression models were employed to account for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, healthcare-related variables, and programme duration effects.ResultsUnder austerity scenarios of decreasing ESF coverage with and without the MMP termination, mean ACSC mortality rates would be 8.60% (95% CI 7.03-10.21%; 48,546 excess premature/under-70 deaths along 2017-2030) and 5.80% (95% CI 4.23-7.35%; 27,685 excess premature deaths) higher respectively in 2030 compared to maintaining the current ESF coverage. Comparing decreasing ESF coverage and MMP termination with achieving 100% ESF coverage (Universal Health Coverage scenario) in 2030, mortality rates would be 11.12% higher (95% CI 9.47-12.76%; 83,937 premature deaths). Reductions in ESF coverage would have stronger effects on mortality from infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies and would disproportionately impact poorer municipalities, with the concentration index for ACSC mortality 11.77% higher (95% CI 0.31-22.32%) and also ending historical declines in racial health inequalities between white and black/pardo Brazilians.ConclusionsReductions in primary healthcare coverage due to austerity measures are likely to be responsible for many avoidable deaths and may preclude achievement of SDGs for health and inequality in Brazil and in other low- and middle-income countries.

Project description:Background: Both overall mortality and avoidable mortality have decreased in recent years in most European countries. It has become clear that less privileged socioeconomic groups have an increased risk of death. In 2008, most countries went into a severe economic recession, whose effects on the health of the population are still ongoing. While on the one hand, some evidence associates the economic crisis with positive health outcomes (pro-cyclical effect), on the other hand, some other evidence suggests that the economic crisis may pose serious public health problems (counter-cyclical effect), which has given rise to controversy. Objectives: To describe the evolution of overall mortality and amenable mortality in Spain between 2002?2007 (before the economic crisis) and 2008?2013 (during the economic crisis), nationally and by province, as well as to analyse trends in the risks of death and their association with indicators of the impact of the crisis. Methods: Ecological study of overall mortality and amenable mortality describing the evolution of the risks of death between 2002?2007 and 2008?2013. Age Standardised Rates were calculated, as well as their percentage change between periods. The association between percentage changes and provincial indicators of the impact of the crisis was analysed. Amenable mortality was studied both overall and categorised into five groups. Results: Amenable mortality represented 8.25% of overall mortality in 2002?2007, and 6.93% in 2008?2013. Age Standardised Rates for overall mortality and global amenable mortality generally declined, with the sharpest decline in amenable mortality. Decreases in overall mortality and amenable mortality were directly related to vulnerability indicators. The most significant decreases were registered in ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and other amenable causes. The relationship with vulnerability indices varied from direct (cancer) to inverse (hypertensive disease). Conclusions: Amenable mortality shows a more significant decrease than overall mortality between both study periods, albeit unevenly between provinces causes of death. Higher vulnerability indicators entail greater declines, although this trend varied for different causes. Mortality trends and their relationship with socioeconomic indicators in a situation of crisis must be conducted cautiously, taking into consideration a possible pro-cyclical effect.

Project description:BackgroundRacism is a social determinant of health inequities. In Brazil, racial injustices lead to poor outcomes in maternal and child health for Black and Indigenous populations, including greater risks of pregnancy-related complications; decreased access to antenatal, delivery, and postnatal care; and higher childhood mortality rates. In this study, we aimed to estimate inequalities in childhood mortality rates by maternal race and skin colour in a cohort of more than 19 million newborns in Brazil.MethodsWe did a nationwide population-based, retrospective cohort study using linked data on all births and deaths in Brazil between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2018. The data consisted of livebirths followed up to age 5 years, death, or Dec 31, 2018. Data for livebirths were extracted from the National Information System for livebirths, SINASC, and for deaths from the Mortality Information System, SIM. The final sample consisted of complete data for all cases regarding maternal race and skin colour, and no inconsistencies were present between date of birth and death after linkage. We fitted Cox proportional hazard regression models to calculate the crude and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the association between maternal race and skin colour and all-cause and cause-specific younger than age 5 mortality rates, by age subgroups. We calculated the trend of HRs (and 95% CI) by time of observation (calendar year) to indicate trends in inequalities.FindingsFrom the 20 526 714 livebirths registered in SINASC between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2018, 238 436 were linked to death records identified from SIM. After linkage, 1 010 871 records were excluded due to missing data on maternal race or skin colour or inconsistent date of death. 19 515 843 livebirths were classified by mother's race, of which 224 213 died. Compared with children of White mothers, mortality risk for children younger than age 5 years was higher among children of Indigenous (HR 1·98 [95% CI 1·92-2·06]), Black (HR 1·39 [1·36-1·41]), and Brown or Mixed race (HR 1·19 [1·18-1·20]) mothers. The highest hazard ratios were observed during the post-neonatal period (Indigenous, HR 2·78 [95% CI 2·64-2·95], Black, HR 1·54 [1·48-1·59]), and Brown or Mixed race, HR 1·25 [1·23-1·27]) and between the ages of 1 year and 4 years (Indigenous, HR 3·82 [95% CI 3·52-4·15]), Black, HR 1·51 [1·42-1·60], and Brown or Mixed race, HR 1·30 [1·26-1·35]). Children of Indigenous (HR 16·39 [95% CI 12·88-20·85]), Black (HR 2·34 [1·78-3·06]), and Brown or Mixed race mothers (HR 2·05 [1·71-2·45]) had a higher risk of death from malnutrition than did children of White mothers. Similar patterns were observed for death from diarrhoea (Indigenous, HR 14·28 [95% CI 12·25-16·65]; Black, HR 1·72 [1·44-2·05]; and Brown or Mixed race mothers, HR 1·78 [1·61-1·98]) and influenza and pneumonia (Indigenous, HR 6·49 [95% CI 5·78-7·27]; Black, HR 1·78 [1·62-1·96]; and Brown or Mixed race mothers, HR 1·60 [1·51-1·69]).InterpretationSubstantial ethnoracial inequalities were observed in child mortality in Brazil, especially among the Indigenous and Black populations. These findings demonstrate the importance of regular racial inequality assessments and monitoring. We suggest implementing policies to promote ethnoracial equity to reduce the impact of racism on child health.FundingMCTI/CNPq/MS/SCTIE/Decit/Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation's Grandes Desafios Brasil, Desenvolvimento Saudável para Todas as Crianças, and Wellcome Trust core support grant awarded to CIDACS-Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health.

Project description:BackgroundThe world is currently experiencing multiple economic crises due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and inflation surge, which disproportionately affect children, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We evaluated if the expansion of Social Assistance, represented by Social Pensions (SP) and Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT), could reduce infant and child mortality, and mitigate excess deaths among children in Brazil, one of the LMICs most affected by these economic crises.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective impact evaluation in a cohort of Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019 using multivariable fixed-effects negative binomial models, adjusted for relevant demographic, social, and economic factors, to estimate the effects of the SP and CCT on infant and child mortality. To verify the robustness of the results, we conducted several sensitivity and triangulation analyses, including difference-in-difference with propensity-score matching. These results were incorporated into dynamic microsimulation models to generate projections to 2030 of various economic crises and Social Assistance scenarios.FindingsConsolidated coverage of SP was associated with significant reductions in infant and child mortality rates, with a rate ratio (RR) of 0.843 (95% CI: 0.826-0.861) and 0.840 (95% CI: 0.824-0.856), respectively. Similarly, CCT consolidated coverages showed RRs of 0.868 (95% CI: 0.842-0.849) and 0.874 (95% CI: 0.850-0.899) for infant and child mortality, respectively. The higher the degree of poverty in the municipalities, the stronger the impact of CCT on reducing child mortality. Given the current economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of SP and CCT could avert 148,736 (95% CI: 127,148-170,706) child deaths up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity measures.InterpretationSP and CCT programs could strongly reduce child mortality in LMICs, and their expansion should be considered as an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of the current multiple global economic crises.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Grant_Number:INV-027961. Medical Research Council(MRC-UKRI),Grant_Number:MC_PC_MR/T023678/1.

Project description:ObjectivesThe objective of this study was to systematically review the mortality and morbidity associated with scleroderma renal crisis and to determine temporal trends.MethodsWe searched MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from database inception to 10 February 2020. Bibliographies of selected articles were hand-searched for additional references. Data were extracted using a standardized extraction form. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Results were analysed qualitatively.ResultsTwenty studies with 14,059 systemic sclerosis subjects, of which 854 had scleroderma renal crisis and 4095 had systemic sclerosis-associated end-stage renal disease, met inclusion criteria. Study quality was generally moderate. Cumulative mortality in the post-angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor era was approximately 20% at 6 months, 30%-36% at 1 year, 19%-40% at 3 years and almost 50% at 10 years from scleroderma renal crisis onset. Although the introduction of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors in the early 1970s resulted in a 50% improvement in scleroderma renal crisis mortality, there was no further improvement thereafter. Scleroderma renal crisis mortality rates were proportionally higher than mortality rates associated with other systemic sclerosis organ involvement. The rate of permanent dialysis after scleroderma renal crisis in the post-angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor era ranged from 19%-40%. Three to 17% of systemic sclerosis patients underwent renal transplant. Survival was better in patients post-renal transplant (54%-91%) compared to those on dialysis (31%-56%). Graft survival improved over time and appeared similar to that of patients with other types of end-stage renal disease.ConclusionWhile there has been considerable improvement in scleroderma renal crisis-related outcomes since the introduction of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, morbidity and mortality remain high for affected patients without convincing evidence of further improvement in the post-angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor era. Novel treatments are required to improve outcomes of scleroderma renal crisis.

Project description:BackgroundExcessive sodium consumption is one of the leading dietary risk factors for non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), mediated by high blood pressure. Brazil has implemented voluntary sodium reduction targets with food industries since 2011. This study aimed to analyse the potential health and economic impact of these sodium reduction targets in Brazil from 2013 to 2032.MethodsWe developed a microsimulation of a close-to-reality synthetic population (IMPACTNCD-BR) to evaluate the potential health benefits of setting voluntary upper limits for sodium content as part of the Brazilian government strategy. The model estimates CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, and disease treatment costs. Model inputs were informed by the 2013 National Health Survey, the 2008-2009 Household Budget Survey, and high-quality meta-analyses, assuming that all individuals were exposed to the policy proportionally to their sodium intake from processed food. Costs included costs of the National Health System on CVD treatment and informal care costs. The primary outcome measures of the model are cardiovascular disease cases and deaths prevented or postponed over 20 years (2013-2032), stratified by age and sex.ResultsThe study found that the application of the Brazilian voluntary sodium targets for packaged foods between 2013 and 2032 could prevent or postpone approximately 110,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty intervals (UI): 28,000 to 260,000) among men and 70,000 cases among women (95% UI: 16,000 to 170,000), and also prevent or postpone approximately 2600 CVD deaths (95% UI: - 1000 to 11,000), 55% in men. The policy could also produce a net cost saving of approximately US$ 220 million (95% UI: US$ 54 to 520 million) in medical costs to the Brazilian National Health System for the treatment of CHD and stroke and save approximately US$ 71 million (95% UI: US$ 17 to170 million) in informal costs.ConclusionBrazilian voluntary sodium targets could generate substantial health and economic impacts. The reduction in sodium intake that was likely achieved from the voluntary targets indicates that sodium reduction in Brazil must go further and faster to achieve the national and World Health Organization goals for sodium intake.

Dataset Information

Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: A nationwide microsimulation study.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: A nationwide microsimulation study.

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