The first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Spain was associated with early introductions and fast spread of a dominating genetic variant.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Lopez MG
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8481935 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first detected in Madrid, Spain, on 25 February 2020. It increased in frequency very fast and by the end of May more than 70,000 cases had been confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). To study the lineages and the diversity of the viral population during this first epidemic wave in Madrid we sequenced 224 SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes collected from three hospitals from February to May 2020. All the known major lineages were found in this set of samples, though B.1 and B.1.5 were the most frequent ones, accounting for more than 60% of the sequences. In parallel with the B lineages and sublineages, the D614G mutation in the Spike protein sequence was detected soon after the detection of the first coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) case in Madrid and in two weeks became dominant, being found in 80% of the samples and remaining at this level during all the study periods. The lineage composition of the viral population found in Madrid was more similar to the European population than to the publicly available Spanish data, underlining the role of Madrid as a national and international transport hub. In agreement with this, phylodynamic analysis suggested multiple independent entries before the national lockdown and air transportation restrictions.
| S-EPMC7926973 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 waves caused by specific SARS-CoV-2 variants have occurred globally at different times. We focused on Omicron variants to understand the genomic diversity and phylogenetic relatedness of SARS-CoV-2 strains in various regions of Pakistan.MethodsWe studied 276,525 COVID-19 cases and 1,031 genomes sequenced from December 2021 to August 2022. Sequences were analyzed and visualized using phylogenetic trees.ResultsThe highest case numbers and deaths were recorded in Sindh and Punjab, the most populous provinces in Pakistan. Omicron variants comprised 93% of all genomes, with BA.2 (32.6%) and BA.5 (38.4%) predominating. The first Omicron wave was associated with the sequential identification of BA.1 in Sindh, then Islamabad Capital Territory, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK), Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and Balochistan. Phylogenetic analysis revealed Sindh to be the source of BA.1 and BA.2 introductions into Punjab and Balochistan during early 2022. BA.4 was first introduced in AJK and BA.5 in Punjab. Most recent common ancestor (MRCA) analysis revealed relatedness between the earliest BA.1 genome from Sindh with Balochistan, AJK, Punjab and ICT, and that of first BA.1 from Punjab with strains from KPK and GB.ConclusionsPhylogenetic analysis provides insights into the introduction and transmission dynamics of the Omicron variant in Pakistan, identifying Sindh as a hotspot for viral dissemination. Such data linked with public health efforts can help limit surges of new infections.
| S-EPMC10399012 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Human to human transmissible infectious diseases spread in a population using human interactions as its transmission vector. The early stages of such an outbreak can be modeled by a graph whose edges encode these interactions between individuals, the vertices. This article attempts to account for the case when each individual entails in different kinds of interactions which have therefore different probabilities of transmitting the disease. The majority of these results can be also stated in the language of percolation theory. The main contributions of the article are: (1) Extend to this setting some results which were previously known in the case when each individual has only one kind of interactions. (2) Find an explicit formula for the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] which depends only on the probabilities of transmitting the disease along the different edges and the first two moments of the degree distributions of the associated graphs. (3) Motivated by the recent Covid-19 pandemic, we use the framework developed to compute the [Formula: see text] of a model disease spreading in populations whose trees and degree distributions are adjusted to several different countries. In this setting, we shall also compute the probability that the outbreak will not lead to an epidemic. In all cases we find such probability to be very low if no interventions are put in place.
| S-EPMC7499022 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic placed a tremendous strain on health care systems worldwide. To mitigate the spread of the virus, many countries implemented stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which significantly altered human behavior both before and after their enactment. Despite these efforts, a precise assessment of the impact and efficacy of these NPIs, as well as the extent of human behavioral changes, remained elusive.ObjectiveIn this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the initial wave of COVID-19 in Spain to better comprehend the influence of NPIs and their interaction with human behavior. Such investigations are vital for devising future mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 and enhance epidemic preparedness more broadly.MethodsWe used a combination of national and regional retrospective analyses of pandemic incidence alongside large-scale mobility data to assess the impact and timing of government-implemented NPIs in combating COVID-19. Additionally, we compared these findings with a model-based inference of hospitalizations and fatalities. This model-based approach enabled us to construct counterfactual scenarios that gauged the consequences of delayed initiation of epidemic response measures.ResultsOur analysis demonstrated that the pre-national lockdown epidemic response, encompassing regional measures and heightened individual awareness, significantly contributed to reducing the disease burden in Spain. The mobility data indicated that people adjusted their behavior in response to the regional epidemiological situation before the nationwide lockdown was implemented. Counterfactual scenarios suggested that without this early epidemic response, there would have been an estimated 45,400 (95% CI 37,400-58,000) fatalities and 182,600 (95% CI 150,400-233,800) hospitalizations compared to the reported figures of 27,800 fatalities and 107,600 hospitalizations, respectively.ConclusionsOur findings underscore the significance of self-implemented prevention measures by the population and regional NPIs before the national lockdown in Spain. The study also emphasizes the necessity for prompt and precise data quantification prior to enacting enforced measures. This highlights the critical interplay between NPIs, epidemic progression, and human behavior. This interdependence presents a challenge in predicting the impact of NPIs before they are implemented.
| S-EPMC10208305 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGenomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Portugal was rapidly implemented by the National Institute of Health in the early stages of the COVID-19 epidemic, in collaboration with more than 50 laboratories distributed nationwide.MethodsBy applying recent phylodynamic models that allow integration of individual-based travel history, we reconstructed and characterized the spatio-temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 introductions and early dissemination in Portugal.ResultsWe detected at least 277 independent SARS-CoV-2 introductions, mostly from European countries (namely the United Kingdom, Spain, France, Italy, and Switzerland), which were consistent with the countries with the highest connectivity with Portugal. Although most introductions were estimated to have occurred during early March 2020, it is likely that SARS-CoV-2 was silently circulating in Portugal throughout February, before the first cases were confirmed.ConclusionsHere we conclude that the earlier implementation of measures could have minimized the number of introductions and subsequent virus expansion in Portugal. This study lays the foundation for genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Portugal, and highlights the need for systematic and geographically-representative genomic surveillance.
| S-EPMC9053228 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Peru has become one of the countries with the highest mortality rates from the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). To investigate early transmission events and the genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 isolates circulating in Peru in the early COVID-19 pandemic, we analyzed 3472 viral genomes, of which 149 were from Peru. Phylogenomic analysis revealed multiple and independent introductions of the virus likely from Europe and Asia and a high diversity of genetic lineages circulating in Peru. In addition, we found evidence for community-driven transmission of SARS-CoV-2 as suggested by clusters of related viruses found in patients living in different regions of Peru.
| S-EPMC8426889 | biostudies-literature
Project description:New York City (NYC) has emerged as one of the epicenters of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. To identify the early transmission events underlying the rapid spread of the virus in the NYC metropolitan area, we sequenced the virus causing COVID-19 in patients seeking care at the Mount Sinai Health System. Phylogenetic analysis of 84 distinct SARS-CoV2 genomes indicates multiple, independent but isolated introductions mainly from Europe and other parts of the United States. Moreover, we find evidence for community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 as suggested by clusters of related viruses found in patients living in different neighborhoods of the city.
| S-EPMC7259823 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Early Neolithic sedentary villagers started cultivating wild cereals in the Near East 11,500 y ago [Pre-Pottery Neolithic A (PPNA)]. Recent discoveries indicated that Cyprus was frequented by Late PPNA people, but the earliest evidence until now for both the use of cereals and Neolithic villages on the island dates to 10,400 y ago. Here we present the recent archaeological excavation at Klimonas, which demonstrates that established villagers were living on Cyprus between 11,100 and 10,600 y ago. Villagers had stone artifacts and buildings (including a remarkable 10-m diameter communal building) that were similar to those found on Late PPNA sites on the mainland. Cereals were introduced from the Levant, and meat was obtained by hunting the only ungulate living on the island, a small indigenous Cypriot wild boar. Cats and small domestic dogs were brought from the mainland. This colonization suggests well-developed maritime capabilities by the PPNA period, but also that migration from the mainland may have occurred shortly after the beginning of agriculture.
| S-EPMC3365171 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In early 2020, as diagnostic and surveillance responses for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ramped up, attention focused primarily on returning international travelers. Here, we build on existing studies characterizing early patterns of SARS-CoV-2 spread within the USA by analyzing detailed clinical, molecular, and viral genomic data from the state of Georgia through March 2020. We find evidence for multiple early introductions into Georgia, despite relatively sparse sampling. Most sampled sequences likely stemmed from a single or small number of introductions from Asia three weeks prior to the state's first detected infection. Our analysis of sequences from domestic travelers demonstrates widespread circulation of closely related viruses in multiple US states by the end of March 2020. Our findings indicate that the exclusive focus on identifying SARS-CoV-2 in returning international travelers early in the pandemic may have led to a failure to recognize locally circulating infections for several weeks and point toward a critical need for implementing rapid, broadly targeted surveillance efforts for future pandemics.
| S-EPMC8933693 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A new variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), named Omicron (Pango lineage designation B.1.1.529), was first reported to the World Health Organization by South African health authorities on 24 November 2021. The Omicron variant possesses numerous mutations associated with increased transmissibility and immune escape properties. In November 2021, Mexican authorities reported Omicron's presence in the country. In this study, we infer the first introductory events of Omicron and the impact that human mobility has had on the spread of the virus. We also evaluated the adaptive evolutionary processes in Mexican SARS-CoV-2 genomes during the first month of the circulation of Omicron. We inferred 160 introduction events of Omicron in Mexico since its first detection in South Africa; subsequently, after the first introductions there was an evident increase in the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 during January. This higher prevalence of the novel variant resulted in a peak of reported cases; on average 6 weeks after, a higher mobility trend was reported. During the peak of cases in the country from January to February 2022, the Omicron BA.1.1 sub-lineage dominated, followed by the BA.1 and BA.15 sub-lineages. Additionally, we identified the presence of diversifying natural selection in the genomes of Omicron and found six non-synonymous mutations in the receptor binding domain of the spike protein, all of them related to evasion of the immune response. In contrast, the other proteins in the genome are highly conserved; however, we identified homoplasic mutations in non-structural proteins, indicating a parallel evolution.
| S-EPMC9793848 | biostudies-literature