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Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria.

ABSTRACT: Lassa fever is a longstanding public health concern in West Africa. Recent molecular studies have confirmed the fundamental role of the rodent host (Mastomys natalensis) in driving human infections, but control and prevention efforts remain hampered by a limited baseline understanding of the disease's true incidence, geographical distribution and underlying drivers. Here, we show that Lassa fever occurrence and incidence is influenced by climate, poverty, agriculture and urbanisation factors. However, heterogeneous reporting processes and diagnostic laboratory access also appear to be important drivers of the patchy distribution of observed disease incidence. Using spatiotemporal predictive models we show that including climatic variability added retrospective predictive value over a baseline model (11% decrease in out-of-sample predictive error). However, predictions for 2020 show that a climate-driven model performs similarly overall to the baseline model. Overall, with ongoing improvements in surveillance there may be potential for forecasting Lassa fever incidence to inform health planning.

SUBMITTER: Redding DW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8486829 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The dynamics of Lassa virus (LASV) infections in rodent reservoirs and their endemic human caseloads remain poorly understood. During the endemic period, human infections are believed to be associated with the seasonal migration of Mastomys natalensis, thought to be the primary reservoir that triggers multiple spillovers of LASV to humans. It has become imperative to improve LASV diagnosis in rodents while updating their prevalence in two regions of Lassa fever endemicity in Nigeria. Rodents (total, 942) were trapped in Ondo (531) and Ebonyi (411) states between October 2018 and April 2020 for detection of LASV using various tissues. Overall, the LASV prevalence was 53.6%. The outbreak area sampled in Ondo had three and two times higher capture success and LASV prevalence, respectively, than Ebonyi State. This correlated with the higher number of annual cases of Lassa fever (LF) in Ondo State versus Ebonyi State. All rodent genera (Mastomys, Rattus, Crocidura, Mus, and Tatera) captured in both states showed slightly variable LASV positivity, with Rattus spp. being the most predominantly infected (77.3%) rodents in Ondo State versus Mastomys spp. (41.6%) in Ebonyi State. The tissues with the highest LASV positivity were the kidneys, spleen, and testes. The finding of a relatively high LASV prevalence in all of the rodent genera captured highlights the complex interspecies transmission dynamics of LASV infections in the reservoirs and their potential association with increased environmental contact, as well as the risk of zoonotic spillover in these communities, which have the highest prevalence of Lassa fever in Nigeria. IMPORTANCE Our findings show the highest LASV positivity in small rodents ever recorded and the first direct detection of LASV in Tatera spp. Our findings also indicate the abundance of LASV-infected small rodents in houses, with probable interspecies transmission through vertical and horizontal coitus routes. Consequently, we suggest that the abundance of different reservoir species for LASV may fuel the epizootic outbreaks of LF in affected human communities. The high prevalence of LASV with the diversity of affected rodents has direct implications for our understanding of the transmission risk, mitigation, and ultimately, the prevention of LF in humans. Optimal tissues for LASV detection in rodents are also presented.

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Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria.

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