Dataset Information

Application of the iBox prognostication system as a surrogate endpoint in the TRANSFORM randomised controlled trial: proof-of-concept study.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Development of pharmaceutical agents in transplantation is currently limited by long waits for hard endpoints. We applied a validated integrative risk-prognostication system integrative Box (iBox) as a surrogate endpoint to the TRANSFORM Study, a large randomised controlled trial, to project individual patient long-term kidney allograft survival from 1 year to 11 years after randomisation.

Design

Post-hoc analysis of a randomised open-label controlled trial.

Setting

Multicentre study including 186 centres in 42 countries worldwide.

Participants

2037 de novo kidney transplant recipients.

Intervention

Participants were randomised (1:1) to receive everolimus with reduced-exposure calcineurin inhibitor (EVR+rCNI) or mycophenolic acid with standard-exposure CNI (MPA+sCNI).

Primary outcome measure

The iBox scores were computed for each participant at 1 year after randomisation using functional, immunological and histological parameters. Individual long-term death-censored allograft survival over 4, 6 and 11 years after randomisation was projected with the iBox risk-prognostication system.

Results

Overall, 940 patients receiving EVR+rCNI and 932 receiving MPA+sCNI completed the 1-year visit. iBox scores generated at 1 year yielded graft survival prediction rates of 90.9% vs 92.1%, 87.9% vs 89.5%, and 80.0% vs 82.4% in the EVR+rCNI versus MPA+sCNI arms at 4, 6, and 11 years post-randomisation, respectively (all differences below the 10% non-inferiority margin defined by study protocol). Inclusion of immunological and histological Banff diagnoses parameters in iBox scores resulted in comparable and non-inferior predicted graft survival for both treatments.

Conclusions

This proof-of-concept study provides the first application of a validated prognostication system as a surrogate endpoint in the field of transplantation. The iBox system, by projecting kidney allograft survival up to 11 years post-randomisation, confirms the non-inferiority of EVR+rCNI versus MPA+sCNI regimen. Given the current process engaged for surrogate endpoints qualification, this study illustrates the potential to fast track development of pharmaceutical agents.

Trial registration number

TRANSFORM trial: NCT01950819.iBox prognostication system: NCT03474003.

SUBMITTER: Aubert O

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8499283 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundRobust identification of surrogate endpoints can help accelerate the development of pharmacotherapies for diseases traditionally evaluated using true endpoints associated with prolonged follow-up. The meta-analysis-based surrogate endpoint evaluation (SEE) integrates data from multiple, usually smaller, trials to statistically confirm a surrogate endpoint as a robust proxy for the true endpoint. To test the applicability of SEE when only a single, larger trial is available, we analysed the cardiovascular (CV) survival endpoint from the large multinational trial LEADER (9340 subjects) that confirmed the CV safety of a diabetes drug (liraglutide). We evaluated if using country as a trial unit adequately facilitated the meta-analysis and calculation of R2 by country group.MethodsData were grouped by country, ensuring at least 30 CV deaths (497 in total) in each of the nine resulting by-country groups. In a two-step SEE on the grouped dataset, we first fitted the group-specific Cox proportional hazard models; next, on the trial-level, we regressed the estimated hazard ratio (HR; liraglutide vs placebo) of the true endpoints (CV death: 497 events, or all-cause death: 828 events) on the HR of the surrogate endpoint (major CV adverse event [MACE]: 1302 events) and derived the group-specific R2 and its 95% confidence interval (CI).ResultsGroup-level surrogacy of MACE was supported for CV death but not for all-cause death, with [Formula: see text] values of 0.85 [0.63;1.00]95% CI and 0.23 [0.00;0.67]95% CI, respectively. Sensitivity analyses using different grouping approaches (e.g. grouping by region) corroborated the robustness of the conclusions as well as the appropriateness of the data-grouping approaches.ConclusionsWe derived a specific grouping approach to successfully apply SEE on data from a single trial. This may allow for the statistically robust identification and validation of surrogate endpoints based on the abundance of large monolithic outcome trials conducted as part of drug development programmes in, for example, diabetes.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough Alzheimer's disease affects around 800,000 people in the UK and costs almost £23 billion per year, currently licenced treatments only offer modest benefit at best. Seizures, which are more common in patients with Alzheimer's disease than age matched controls, may contribute to the loss of nerve cells and abnormal brain discharges can disrupt cognition. This aberrant electrical activity may therefore present potentially important drug targets. The anti-seizure medication levetiracetam can reduce abnormal cortical discharges and reverse memory deficits in a mouse model of Alzheimer's disease. Levetiracetam has also been shown to improve memory difficulties in patients with mild cognitive impairment, a precursor to Alzheimer's disease. Clinical use of levetiracetam is well-established in treatment of epilepsy and extensive safety data are available. Levetiracetam thus has the potential to provide safe and efficacious treatment to help with memory difficulties in Alzheimer's disease.MethodsThe proposed project is a proof of concept study to test whether levetiracetam can help cognitive function in people with dementia. We plan to recruit thirty patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease with no history of previous seizures or other significant co-morbidity. Participants will be allocated to a double-blind placebo-controlled crossover trial that tests levetiracetam against placebo. Standardised scales to assess cognition and a computer-based touchscreen test that we have developed to better detect subtle improvements in hippocampal function will be used to measure changes in memory. All participants will have an electroencephalogram (EEG) at baseline. The primary outcome measure is a change in the computer-based touchscreen cognitive task while secondary outcomes include the effect of levetiracetam on mood, quality of life and modelling of the EEG, including time series measures and feature-based analysis to see whether the effect of levetiracetam can be predicted. The effect of levetiracetam and placebo will be compared within a given patient using the paired t-test and the analysis of covariance adjusting for baseline values.DiscussionThis is the first study to evaluate if an anti-seizure medication can offer meaningful benefit to patients with Alzheimer's disease. If this study demonstrates at least stabilisation of memory function and/or good tolerability, the next step will be to rapidly progress to a larger study to establish whether levetiracetam may be a useful and cost-effective treatment for patients with Alzheimer's disease.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT03489044 . Registered on April 5, 2018.