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China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity.

ABSTRACT: China's low fertility is often presented as a major factor which will hinder its prosperity in the medium to long term. This is based on the assumed negative consequences of an increasing old-age dependency ratio: a simplistic measure of relative changing age structures. Based on this view, policies to increase fertility are being proposed after decades of birth restriction policies. Here, we argue that a purely age structure-based reasoning which disregards labor force participation and education attainment may be highly misleading. While fertility has indeed fallen to low levels, human capital accumulation has been very strong-especially among younger cohorts. Factoring in the effects of labor force participation and educational attainment on productivity, a measure called "productivity-weighted labor force dependency ratio" can more accurately capture the economic implications of demographic change. When using this ratio, a much more optimistic picture of the economic (and social) future of China can be envisaged.

SUBMITTER: Marois G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8501780 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity.

Marois Guillaume G Gietel-Basten Stuart S Lutz Wolfgang W

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20211001 40

China's low fertility is often presented as a major factor which will hinder its prosperity in the medium to long term. This is based on the assumed negative consequences of an increasing old-age dependency ratio: a simplistic measure of relative changing age structures. Based on this view, policies to increase fertility are being proposed after decades of birth restriction policies. Here, we argue that a purely age structure-based reasoning which disregards labor force participation and educati ...[more]

PMID: 34580226

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Project description:ObjectivesTo assess childbearing intentions, concerns about future fertility, knowledge about the age-related decline in fertility, and interest in receiving fertility education among undergraduate students.DesignFrom March to April 2021, a cross-sectional, web-based survey with 42 reproductive and fertility-related questions was administered to and completed by actively enrolled undergraduates at Northwestern University in the United States.ResultsThe survey was completed by 291 students (mean age 20.2 years). Of all participants, 62.5% plan to have children and 68.3% intend to delay childbearing. Significantly more females than males (70.7% vs 40.9%, P = 0.004) and premedical students compared to non-premedical students (78.2% vs 60.1%, P = 0.002) reported planning to delay childbearing due to educational or career aspirations. Significantly more females than males (43.5% vs 4.5%, P < 0.001) and premedical compared to non-premedical students (50.4% vs 31.5%, P = 0.002) also reported having anxiety about future fertility due to career aspirations.When surveyed about fertility knowledge, 31.1% of participants reported that females are as fertile in their forties as they are in their thirties, and 25.4% stated that female fertility does not dramatically decline until age 40 or later. When asked to estimate the oldest age a woman has conceived using autologous oocytes, 83.3% reported age 48 or older. Of all participants, 72.3% were interested in learning about fertility.ConclusionsThe majority of surveyed undergraduates plan to delay childbearing, yet they have concerns about how career goals will impact future fertility. Notably, females and premedical students reported higher rates of anxiety when compared to their male and non-premedical counterparts. Knowledge about the age-related decline in fertility was limited, but students have a strong interest in learning about fertility, highlighting an opportunity for educational intervention at the undergraduate level. With education, students may be empowered to make informed decisions about future reproductive strategy earlier in time, potentially decreasing future anxiety.

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China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity.

Publications

China's low fertility may not hinder future prosperity.

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