Predicting bloodstream infection outcome using machine learning.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Zoabi Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8505419 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:We aim to determine if machine learning techniques, such as support vector machines (SVMs), can predict the occurrence of a second clinical attack, which leads to the diagnosis of clinically-definite Multiple Sclerosis (CDMS) in patients with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS), on the basis of single patient's lesion features and clinical/demographic characteristics. Seventy-four patients at onset of CIS were scanned and clinically reviewed after one and three years. CDMS was used as the gold standard against which SVM classification accuracy was tested. Radiological features related to lesional characteristics on conventional MRI were defined a priori and used in combination with clinical/demographic features in an SVM. Forward recursive feature elimination with 100 bootstraps and a leave-one-out cross-validation was used to find the most predictive feature combinations. 30 % and 44 % of patients developed CDMS within one and three years, respectively. The SVMs correctly predicted the presence (or the absence) of CDMS in 71.4 % of patients (sensitivity/specificity: 77 %/66 %) at 1 year, and in 68 % (60 %/76 %) at 3 years on average over all bootstraps. Combinations of features consistently gave a higher accuracy in predicting outcome than any single feature. Machine-learning-based classifications can be used to provide an "individualised" prediction of conversion to MS from subjects' baseline scans and clinical characteristics, with potential to be incorporated into routine clinical practice.
| S-EPMC4297887 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Early illness course correlates with long-term outcome in psychosis. Accurate prediction could allow more focused intervention. Earlier intervention corresponds to significantly better symptomatic and functional outcomes. Our study objective is to use routinely collected baseline demographic and clinical characteristics to predict employment, education or training (EET) status, and symptom remission in patients with first episode psychosis (FEP) at one-year. METHODS AND FINDINGS:83 FEP patients were recruited from National Health Service (NHS) Glasgow between 2011 and 2014 to a 24-month prospective cohort study with regular assessment of demographic and psychometric measures. An external independent cohort of 79 FEP patients were recruited from NHS Glasgow and Edinburgh during a 12-month study between 2006 and 2009. Elastic net regularised logistic regression models were built to predict binary EET status, period and point remission outcomes at one-year on 83 Glasgow patients (training dataset). Models were externally validated on an independent dataset of 79 patients from Glasgow and Edinburgh (validation dataset). Only baseline predictors shared across both cohorts were made available for model training and validation. After excluding participants with missing outcomes, models were built on the training dataset for EET status, period and point remission outcomes and externally validated on the validation dataset. Models predicted EET status, period and point remission with receiver operating curve (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) performances of 0.876 (95%CI: 0.864, 0.887), 0.630 (95%CI: 0.612, 0.647) and 0.652 (95%CI: 0.635, 0.670) respectively. Positive predictors of EET included baseline EET and living with spouse/children. Negative predictors included higher PANSS suspiciousness, hostility and delusions scores. Positive predictors for symptom remission included living with spouse/children, and affective symptoms on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). Negative predictors of remission included passive social withdrawal symptoms on PANSS. A key limitation of this study is the small sample size (n) relative to the number of predictors (p), whereby p approaches n. The use of elastic net regularised regression rather than ordinary least squares regression helped circumvent this difficulty. Further, we did not have information for biological and additional social variables, such as nicotine dependence, which observational studies have linked to outcomes in psychosis. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE:Using advanced statistical machine learning techniques, we provide the first externally validated evidence, in a temporally and geographically independent cohort, for the ability to predict one-year EET status and symptom remission in individual FEP patients.
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Project description:Improved outcome prediction is vital for the delivery of risk-adjusted, appropriate and effective care to paediatric patients with Ewing sarcoma-the second most common paediatric malignant bone tumour. Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy of tissues allows the bulk biochemical content of a biological sample to be probed and makes possible the study and diagnosis of disease. In this retrospective study, FTIR spectra of sections of biopsy-obtained bone tissue were recorded. Twenty-seven patients (between 5 and 20 years of age) with newly diagnosed Ewing sarcoma of bone were included in this study. The prognostic value of FTIR spectra obtained from Ewing sarcoma (ES) tumours before and after neoadjuvant chemotherapy were analysed in combination with various data-reduction and machine learning approaches. Random forest and linear discriminant analysis supervised learning models were able to correctly predict patient mortality in 92% of cases using leave-one-out cross-validation. The best performing model for predicting patient relapse was a linear Support Vector Machine trained on the observed spectral changes as a result of chemotherapy treatment, which achieved 92% accuracy. FTIR spectra of tumour biopsy samples may predict treatment outcome in paediatric Ewing sarcoma patients with greater than 92% accuracy.
| S-EPMC6470837 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and Purpose: Accurate prediction of functional outcome after stroke would provide evidence for reasonable post-stroke management. This study aimed to develop a machine learning-based prediction model for 6-month unfavorable functional outcome in Chinese acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patient. Methods: We collected AIS patients at National Advanced Stroke Center of Nanjing First Hospital (China) between September 2016 and March 2019. The unfavorable outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) 3-6 at 6-month. We developed five machine-learning models (logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest classifier, extreme gradient boosting, and fully-connected deep neural network) and assessed the discriminative performance by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. We also compared them to the Houston Intra-arterial Recanalization Therapy (HIAT) score, the Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events (THRIVE) score, and the NADE nomogram. Results: A total of 1,735 patients were included into this study, and 541 (31.2%) of them had unfavorable outcomes. Incorporating age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at admission, premorbid mRS, fasting blood glucose, and creatinine, there were similar predictive performance between our machine-learning models, while they are significantly better than HIAT score, THRIVE score, and NADE nomogram. Conclusions: Compared with the HIAT score, the THRIVE score, and the NADE nomogram, the RFC model can improve the prediction of 6-month outcome in Chinese AIS patients.
| S-EPMC7710984 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Phospholipidosis is an adverse effect caused by numerous cationic amphiphilic drugs and can affect many cell types. It is characterized by the excess accumulation of phospholipids and is most reliably identified by electron microscopy of cells revealing the presence of lamellar inclusion bodies. The development of phospholipidosis can cause a delay in the drug development process, and the importance of computational approaches to the problem has been well documented. Previous work on predictive methods for phospholipidosis showed that state of the art machine learning methods produced the best results. Here we extend this work by looking at a larger data set mined from the literature. We find that circular fingerprints lead to better models than either E-Dragon descriptors or a combination of the two. We also observe very similar performance in general between Random Forest and Support Vector Machine models.
| S-EPMC2949053 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Predicting the stereochemical outcome of chemical reactions is challenging in mechanistically ambiguous transformations. The stereoselectivity of glycosylation reactions is influenced by at least eleven factors across four chemical participants and temperature. A random forest algorithm was trained using a highly reproducible, concise dataset to accurately predict the stereoselective outcome of glycosylations. The steric and electronic contributions of all chemical reagents and solvents were quantified by quantum mechanical calculations. The trained model accurately predicts stereoselectivities for unseen nucleophiles, electrophiles, acid catalyst, and solvents across a wide temperature range (overall root mean square error 6.8%). All predictions were validated experimentally on a standardized microreactor platform. The model helped to identify novel ways to control glycosylation stereoselectivity and accurately predicts previously unknown means of stereocontrol. By quantifying the degree of influence of each variable, we begin to gain a better general understanding of the transformation, for example that environmental factors influence the stereoselectivity of glycosylations more than the coupling partners in this area of chemical space.
| S-EPMC8179398 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream (SAB) infection remains a leading cause of sepsis-related mortality. Yet, current treatment does not account for variable virulence traits that mediate host dysregulated immune response, such as SA α-toxin (Hla)-mediated thrombocytopenia. Here, we applied machine learning (ML) to bacterial growth images combined with platelet count data to predict patient outcomes. We profiled Hla phenotypes of SA isolates collected from patients with bacteremia by taking smartphone images of beta-hemolytic growth on sheep blood agar (SBA). Electronic medical records were reviewed to extract relevant laboratory and clinical data. A convolutional neural network was applied to process the plate image data for input along with day 1 patient platelet count to generate ML-based models that predict thrombocytopenia on day 4 and mortality. A total of 229 patients infected with SA strains exhibiting varying zone sizes of beta-hemolysis on SBA were included. A total of 539 images of bacterial growth on SBA were generated as inputs for model development. One-third of patients developed thrombocytopenia at onset, with an overall mortality rate of 18.8%. The models developed from the ML algorithm showed strong performance (AUC 0.92) for predicting thrombocytopenia on day 4 of infection and modest performance (AUC 0.711) for mortality. Our findings support further development and validation of a proof-of-concept ML application in digital microbiology, with a measure of bacterial virulence factor production that carries prognostic significance and can help guide treatment selection.
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Project description:BackgroundBloodstream infection (BSI) is a prevalent cause of admission in hemodialysis (HD) patients and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to establish a diagnostic, predictive model for the early identification of BSI in HD patients.MethodsHD patients who underwent blood culture testing between August 2018 and March 2022 were enrolled in this study. Machine learning algorithms, including stepwise logistic regression (SLR), Lasso logistic regression (LLR), support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, random forest (RF), and gradient boosting machine (XGboost), were used to predict the risk of developing BSI from the patient's clinical data. The accuracy (ACC) and area under the subject working curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the performance of such models. The Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values were used to explain each feature's predictive value on the models' output. Finally, a simplified nomogram for predicting BSI was devised.ResultsA total of 391 HD patients were enrolled in this study, of whom 74 (18.9%) were diagnosed with BSI. The XGboost model achieved the highest AUC (0.914, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.861-0.964) and ACC (86.3%) for BSI prediction. The four most significant co-variables in both the significance matrix plot of the XGboost model variables and the SHAP summary plot were body temperature, dialysis access via a non-arteriovenous fistula (non-AVF), the procalcitonin levels (PCT), and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR).ConclusionsThis study created an effective machine-learning model for predicting BSI in HD patients. The model could be used to detect BSI at an early stage and hence guide antibiotic treatment in HD patients.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Prognostication is an essential tool for risk adjustment and decision making in the intensive care unit (ICU). Research into prognostication in ICU has so far been limited to data from admission or the first 24 hours. Most ICU admissions last longer than this, decisions are made throughout an admission, and some admissions are explicitly intended as time-limited prognostic trials. Despite this, temporal changes in prognostic ability during ICU admission has received little attention to date. Current predictive models, in the form of prognostic clinical tools, are typically derived from linear models and do not explicitly handle incremental information from trends. Machine learning (ML) allows predictive models to be developed which use non-linear predictors and complex interactions between variables, thus allowing incorporation of trends in measured variables over time; this has made it possible to investigate prognosis throughout an admission. METHODS AND FINDINGS:This study uses ML to assess the predictability of ICU mortality as a function of time. Logistic regression against physiological data alone outperformed APACHE-II and demonstrated several important interactions including between lactate & noradrenaline dose, between lactate & MAP, and between age & MAP consistent with the current sepsis definitions. ML models consistently outperformed logistic regression with Deep Learning giving the best results. Predictive power was maximal on the second day and was further improved by incorporating trend data. Using a limited range of physiological and demographic variables, the best machine learning model on the first day showed an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.883 (σ = 0.008), compared to 0.846 (σ = 0.010) for a logistic regression from the same predictors and 0.836 (σ = 0.007) for a logistic regression based on the APACHE-II score. Adding information gathered on the second day of admission improved the maximum AUC to 0.895 (σ = 0.008). Beyond the second day, predictive ability declined. CONCLUSION:This has implications for decision making in intensive care and provides a justification for time-limited trials of ICU therapy; the assessment of prognosis over more than one day may be a valuable strategy as new information on the second day helps to differentiate outcomes. New ML models based on trend data beyond the first day could greatly improve upon current risk stratification tools.
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Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC11242237 | biostudies-literature