Dataset Information

Complex Multimorbidity and Incidence of Long-Term Care Needs in Japan: A Prospective Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT: Complex multimorbidity (CMM) has been proposed as a more nuanced concept of multimorbidity (MM). We sought to quantify the association of CMM and MM on the incidence of long-term care (LTC) needs in a cohort of older Japanese people. Our follow-up was based on a nationwide longitudinal cohort study of people aged over 65 years who were functionally dependent at baseline. Our outcome was incident LTC needs, based on certification under the Japanese LTC insurance scheme. We used both propensity score matching and inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) to compare individuals with and without MM versus CMM. A total of 38,889 older adults were included: 20,233 (52.0%) and 7565 (19.5%) adults with MM and CMM, respectively. In propensity-matched analyses, both MM (n = 15,666 pairs) and CMM (n = 7524 pairs) were statistically significantly associated with the six-year LTC insurance certification rate (MM, hazard ratio (HR) 1.07, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) 1.02-1.12; CMM, HR 1.10, 95%CI 1.04-1.16). Both MM and CMM were associated with a modest but statistically significantly higher rate of LTC insurance certification. These findings support the inclusion of multimorbidity in the assessment of LTC insurance needs, although the Japanese government currently has not adopted this.

SUBMITTER: Kato D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8508235 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Complex Multimorbidity and Incidence of Long-Term Care Needs in Japan: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Kato Daisuke D Kawachi Ichiro I Saito Junko J Kondo Naoki N

International journal of environmental research and public health 20211007 19

Complex multimorbidity (CMM) has been proposed as a more nuanced concept of multimorbidity (MM). We sought to quantify the association of CMM and MM on the incidence of long-term care (LTC) needs in a cohort of older Japanese people. Our follow-up was based on a nationwide longitudinal cohort study of people aged over 65 years who were functionally dependent at baseline. Our outcome was incident LTC needs, based on certification under the Japanese LTC insurance scheme. We used both propensity sc ...[more]

PMID: 34639825

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Project description:BACKGROUND:The occurrence of multimorbidity (i.e., the coexistence of multiple chronic diseases) increases with age in older adults and is a growing concern worldwide. Multimorbidity has been reported to be a driving factor in the increase of medical expenditures in OECD countries. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is no published research that has examined the associations between multimorbidity and either long-term care (LTC) expenditure or the sum of medical and LTC expenditures worldwide. We, therefore, aimed to examine the associations of multimorbidity with the sum of medical and LTC expenditures for older adults in Japan. METHODS:Medical insurance claims data for adults ≥75 years were merged with LTC insurance claims data from Kashiwa city, a suburb in the Tokyo metropolitan area, for the period between April 2012 and September 2013 to obtain an estimate of medical and LTC expenditures. We also calculated the 2011 updated and reweighted version of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) scores. Then, we performed multiple generalized linear regressions to examine the associations of CCI scores (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or ≥ 5) with the sum of annual medical and LTC expenditures, adjusting for age, sex, and household income level. RESULTS:The mean sum of annual medical and LTC expenditures was ¥1,086,000 (US$12,340; n = 30,042). Medical and LTC expenditures accounted for 66 and 34% of the sum, respectively. Every increase in one unit of the CCI scores was associated with a ¥257,000 (US$2920); 95% Confidence Interval: ¥242,000, 271,000 (US$2750, 3080) increase in the sum of the expenditures (p < 0.001; n = 29,915). CONCLUSIONS:Using a merged medical and LTC claims dataset, we found that greater CCI scores were associated with a higher sum of annual medical and LTC expenditures for older adults. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the associations of multimorbidity with LTC expenditures or the sum of medical and LTC expenditures worldwide. Our study indicated that the economic burden on society caused by multimorbidity could be better evaluated by the sum of medical and LTC expenditures, rather than medical expenditures alone.

Project description:PurposeThe proportion of elderly individuals (age ≥65 years) in Japan reached 27.7% in 2017, the highest in the world. A serious social problem in a super-aged society is the rise in the number of elderly people who need long-term care (LTC), which is mainly due to cerebrovascular disease, dementia, age-related frailty, falls and fractures, and joint disease. We hypothesised that decreased muscle mass, muscle strength and insulin sensitivity are the common risk factors for these diseases related to needing LTC. We developed a prospective cohort study of elderly subjects in an urban community to test this hypothesis. The primary objective is to prospectively investigate associations between muscle mass, muscle strength, and insulin sensitivity and incidence of main disease and risk factors of needing LTC. The primary outcomes are the incidence of cerebrovascular disease and cognitive decline.ParticipantsParticipants were 1629 people aged 65-84 years living in 13 communities in an urban area (Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan). Average age was 73.1±5.4 years.Findings to dateWe obtained baseline data on cognitive function, cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) determined by brain MRI, body composition, bone mineral density, arteriosclerosis, physical function, muscle mass, muscle strength and insulin sensitivity. Mild cognitive impairment and dementia were observed in 18.1% and 3.3% of participants, respectively. The prevalence of cerebral SVD was 24.8%. These characteristics are similar to those previously reported in elderly Japanese subjects.Future plansWe will ask participants about their health status, including incidence of cerebrovascular disease, falls, fractures and other diseases every year by mail. We plan to re-evaluate cognitive function, brain MRI parameters and other parameters at 5 and 10 years after the baseline evaluation. We will evaluate whether low muscle function (muscle mass, muscle strength or insulin sensitivity) is a risk factor for cognitive decline or cerebrovascular disease.

Dataset Information

Complex Multimorbidity and Incidence of Long-Term Care Needs in Japan: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Publications

Complex Multimorbidity and Incidence of Long-Term Care Needs in Japan: A Prospective Cohort Study.

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