Complex Multimorbidity and Incidence of Long-Term Care Needs in Japan: A Prospective Cohort Study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kato D
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8508235 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectivesThere are limitations to defining multimorbidity (MM) based on a simple count of diseases. To address these limitations, the concept of complex MM (CMM) focuses on how many body systems are affected in a single patient, rather than counting comorbid conditions. This study compared the prediction of mortality among older Japanese adults between CMM and conventional MM.DesignA population-based prospective cohort study.SettingThe Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study, a nationwide longitudinal cohort study, which ran from 2010 to 2016.ParticipantsFunctionally independent individuals who were older than 65 and had complete illness data at the time of baseline survey were eligible.Outcomes measureCMM was defined as the coexistence of 3 or more body system disorders at baseline. We calculated the propensity for each individual to develop CMM based on a wide array of characteristics, including socioeconomic status and health behaviours. Individuals with and without CMM were then matched on their propensity scores before we estimated overall survival using a log-rank test.ResultsOur 6-year follow-up included 38 889 older adults: 20 233 (52.0%) and 7565 (19.5%) adults with MM and CMM, respectively. In the MM-matched cohort (n=15 666 pairs), the presence of MM was significantly associated with increased mortality (HR 1.07; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.14; p=0.02 by the log-rank test). A similar mortality association was found in the CMM-matched cohort (n=7524 pairs, HR, 1.07; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.16; p=0.08 by the log-rank test).ConclusionThis is the first study to report the association between CMM and mortality among older adults in Japan. MM and CMM predict mortality in older adults to a similar degree. This finding needs to be replicated with more precision in larger samples.
| S-EPMC8330573 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSurvivors of critical illness have poor long-term outcomes with subsequent increases in health care utilization. Less is known about the interplay between multimorbidity and long-term outcomes.Research questionHow do baseline patient demographics impact mortality and health care utilization in the year after discharge from critical care?Study design and methodsUsing data from a prospectively collected cohort, we used propensity score matching to assess differences in outcomes between patients with a critical care encounter and patients admitted to the hospital without critical care. Long-term mortality was examined via nationally linked data as was hospital resource use in the year after hospital discharge. The cause of death was also examined.ResultsThis analysis included 3,112 participants. There was no difference in long-term mortality between the critical care and hospital cohorts (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.90-1.32; P = .39). Prehospitalization emotional health issues (eg, clinical diagnosis of depression) were associated with increased long-term mortality (hazard ratio, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.14-1.96; P < .004). Health care utilization was different between the two cohorts in the year after discharge with the critical care cohort experiencing a 29% increased risk of hospital readmission (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.11-1.50; P = .001).InterpretationThis national cohort study has demonstrated increased resource use for critical care survivors in the year after discharge but fails to replicate past findings of increased longer-term mortality. Multimorbidity, lifestyle factors, and socioeconomic status appear to influence long-term outcomes and should be the focus of future research.
| S-EPMC9199363 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The occurrence of multimorbidity (i.e., the coexistence of multiple chronic diseases) increases with age in older adults and is a growing concern worldwide. Multimorbidity has been reported to be a driving factor in the increase of medical expenditures in OECD countries. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is no published research that has examined the associations between multimorbidity and either long-term care (LTC) expenditure or the sum of medical and LTC expenditures worldwide. We, therefore, aimed to examine the associations of multimorbidity with the sum of medical and LTC expenditures for older adults in Japan. METHODS:Medical insurance claims data for adults ≥75 years were merged with LTC insurance claims data from Kashiwa city, a suburb in the Tokyo metropolitan area, for the period between April 2012 and September 2013 to obtain an estimate of medical and LTC expenditures. We also calculated the 2011 updated and reweighted version of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) scores. Then, we performed multiple generalized linear regressions to examine the associations of CCI scores (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or ≥ 5) with the sum of annual medical and LTC expenditures, adjusting for age, sex, and household income level. RESULTS:The mean sum of annual medical and LTC expenditures was ¥1,086,000 (US$12,340; n = 30,042). Medical and LTC expenditures accounted for 66 and 34% of the sum, respectively. Every increase in one unit of the CCI scores was associated with a ¥257,000 (US$2920); 95% Confidence Interval: ¥242,000, 271,000 (US$2750, 3080) increase in the sum of the expenditures (p < 0.001; n = 29,915). CONCLUSIONS:Using a merged medical and LTC claims dataset, we found that greater CCI scores were associated with a higher sum of annual medical and LTC expenditures for older adults. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the associations of multimorbidity with LTC expenditures or the sum of medical and LTC expenditures worldwide. Our study indicated that the economic burden on society caused by multimorbidity could be better evaluated by the sum of medical and LTC expenditures, rather than medical expenditures alone.
| S-EPMC6404301 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe impact of multimorbidity on long-term care (LTC) use is understudied, despite its well-documented negative effects on functional disabilities. The current study aims to assess the association between multimorbidity and informal LTC use in China. We also explored the socioeconomic and regional disparities.MethodsThe study included 10,831 community-dwelling respondents aged 45 years and older from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011, 2015, and 2018 for analysis. We used a two-part model with random effects to estimate the association between multimorbidity and informal LTC use. Heterogeneity of the association by socioeconomic position (education and income) and region was explored via a subgroup analysis. We further converted the change of informal LTC hours associated with multimorbidity into monetary value and calculated the 95% uncertainty interval (UI).ResultsThe reported prevalence of multimorbidity was 60·0% (95% CI: 58·9%, 61·2%) in 2018. We found multimorbidity was associated with an increased likelihood of receiving informal LTC (OR = 2·13; 95% CI: 1·97, 2·30) and more hours of informal LTC received (IRR = 1·20; 95% CI: 1·06, 1·37), ceteris paribus. Participants in the highest income quintile received more hours of informal LTC care (IRR = 1·62; 95% CI: 1·31, 1·99). The estimated monetary value of increased informal LTC hours among participants with multimorbidity was equivalent to 3·7% (95% UI: 2·2%, 5·4%) of China's GDP in 2018.ConclusionOur findings substantiate the threat of multimorbidity to LTC burden. It is imperative to strengthen LTC services provision, especially among older adults with multimorbidity and ensure equal access among those with lower income.
| S-EPMC10617137 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Japan is known for its long life expectancy and rapidly aging society that there are various demands of older adults need to be fulfilled with, and one of them is long-term care needs. Therefore, Japan implemented the Long-Term Care Insurance in year 2000 for citizens who are above 65-year old and citizens who are above 40-year old in needs of long-term care services. This study was undertaken to longitudinally examine the influence of dementia and living alone on care needs increases among older long-term care insurance service users in Japan.Long-term care insurance claims data were used to identify enrollees who applied for long-term care services between October 2010 and September 2011, and subjects were tracked until March 2015. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was conducted to examine increases in care needs over time in months. Cox regression models were used to examine the effects of dementia and living alone on care needs increases.The cumulative survival rates before care needs increased over the 4.5-year observation period were 17.6% in the dementia group and 31.9% in the non-dementia group. After adjusting for age, sex, care needs level, and status of living alone, the risk of care needs increases was found to be 1.5 times higher in the dementia group. Living alone was not a significant risk factor of care needs increases, but people with dementia who lived alone had a higher risk of care needs increases than those without dementia.Dementia, older age, the female sex, and lower care needs levels were associated with a higher risk of care needs increases over the study period. Among these variables, dementia had the strongest impact on care needs increases, especially in persons who lived alone.
| S-EPMC5559793 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundLong-term care insurance systems in Japan started a special senior care program overseen by qualified care managers (also known as advanced care managers). However, the relationship between advanced care management and outcomes in long-term care recipients remains unknown.ObjectiveWe aimed to compare the outcome of long-term care recipients using facilities with advanced care management and conventional care management, in terms of care needs level progression.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Survey of Long-Term Care Benefit Expenditures in Japan. We identified those aged ?65 years who were newly designated a care need level of 3, and received long-term care services between April 2009 and March 2014 in Tokyo. We compared survival without progression of care needs level between the groups, with and without advanced care management, using the Kaplan-Meier method. Factors affecting the outcomes were determined using a multivariable logistic regression model fitted with a generalized estimating equation.ResultsOf 45,330 eligible persons, 12,903 (28.46%) received long-term care based on advanced care management. The average duration of progression-free survival was 17.4 (SD 10.2) months. The proportions of five-year cumulative progression-free survival were 41.2% and 32.8% in those with and without advanced care management, respectively. The group with advanced care management had significantly lower care needs levels (odds ratio 0.77, 95% CI, 0.72-0.82, P<.001).ConclusionsAdvanced care management was significantly associated with improved care needs levels.
| S-EPMC6716439 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The need for long-term care (LTC) represents a "new social risk," one that overlaps with and complements systems of care that pre-date such programs, complicating LTC program design. This commentary expands on Ikegami's discussion of how these structural factors must be accommodated, as well as historical and cultural factors that influence public expectations of such a program. The commentary specifically focuses on the role of cash payments, caregiver benefits, and the sometimes indistinct line between LTC and health systems. The experiences of countries operating LTC program in a wide range of contexts can illuminate common challenges, as well as some potential solutions to these vexing design and operational issues.
| S-EPMC6943304 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeThe proportion of elderly individuals (age ≥65 years) in Japan reached 27.7% in 2017, the highest in the world. A serious social problem in a super-aged society is the rise in the number of elderly people who need long-term care (LTC), which is mainly due to cerebrovascular disease, dementia, age-related frailty, falls and fractures, and joint disease. We hypothesised that decreased muscle mass, muscle strength and insulin sensitivity are the common risk factors for these diseases related to needing LTC. We developed a prospective cohort study of elderly subjects in an urban community to test this hypothesis. The primary objective is to prospectively investigate associations between muscle mass, muscle strength, and insulin sensitivity and incidence of main disease and risk factors of needing LTC. The primary outcomes are the incidence of cerebrovascular disease and cognitive decline.ParticipantsParticipants were 1629 people aged 65-84 years living in 13 communities in an urban area (Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan). Average age was 73.1±5.4 years.Findings to dateWe obtained baseline data on cognitive function, cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) determined by brain MRI, body composition, bone mineral density, arteriosclerosis, physical function, muscle mass, muscle strength and insulin sensitivity. Mild cognitive impairment and dementia were observed in 18.1% and 3.3% of participants, respectively. The prevalence of cerebral SVD was 24.8%. These characteristics are similar to those previously reported in elderly Japanese subjects.Future plansWe will ask participants about their health status, including incidence of cerebrovascular disease, falls, fractures and other diseases every year by mail. We plan to re-evaluate cognitive function, brain MRI parameters and other parameters at 5 and 10 years after the baseline evaluation. We will evaluate whether low muscle function (muscle mass, muscle strength or insulin sensitivity) is a risk factor for cognitive decline or cerebrovascular disease.
| S-EPMC6756356 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Ikegami reviews the implementation of mandatory long-term care insurance systems in Germany and Japan, which are organized as pay-as-you-go systems. I propose to go one step further and implement a multi-pillar, mandatory and voluntary long-term care financing system, which combines pay-as-you-go with capital-funded elements. The proposal is based on the observation that Switzerland has implemented a three-pillar system for financing retirement provisions that can be adapted to finance long-term care in a fair and sustainable way.
| S-EPMC6943298 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHealth inequalities are widening in Japan, and thus, it is important to understand whether (and to what extent) there is a regional variation in long-term care (LTC) spending across municipalities. This study assesses regional variation in LTC spending and identifies the drivers of such variation.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study using publicly available municipality-level data across Japan in 2019, in which the unit of analysis was municipality. The outcome of interest was per-capita LTC spending, which was estimated by dividing total LTC spending in a municipality by the number of older adults (people aged ≥ 65). To further identify drivers of regional variation in LTC spending, we conducted linear regression of per-capita spending against a series of demand, supply, and structural factors. Shapley decomposition approach was used to highlight the contribution of each independent variable to the goodness of fit of the regression model.ResultsIn Fiscal 2019, per-capita LTC spending varied from 133.1 to 549.9 thousand yen (max/min ratio 4.1) across the 1460 municipalities analyzed, showing considerable regional variation. The included covariates explained 84.0% of the total variance in LTC spending, and demand-determined variance was remarkably high, which contributed more than 85.7% of the overall R2. Specifically, the highest contributing factor was the proportion of severe care-need level and care level certification rate.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that, even after adjusting for different municipalities' age and sex distribution, there is a large variation in LTC spending. Furthermore, our findings highlight that, to reduce the spending gap between municipalities, the issues underlying large variations in LTC spending across municipalities must be identified and addressed.
| S-EPMC9508719 | biostudies-literature