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Long time frames to detect the impact of changing COVID-19 measures, Canada, March to July 2020.

ABSTRACT: BackgroundMany countries have implemented population-wide interventions to control COVID-19, with varying extent and success. Many jurisdictions have moved to relax measures, while others have intensified efforts to reduce transmission.AimWe aimed to determine the time frame between a population-level change in COVID-19 measures and its impact on the number of cases.MethodsWe examined how long it takes for there to be a substantial difference between the number of cases that occur following a change in COVID-19 physical distancing measures and those that would have occurred at baseline. We then examined how long it takes to observe this difference, given delays and noise in reported cases. We used a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR)-type model and publicly available data from British Columbia, Canada, collected between March and July 2020.ResultsIt takes 10 days or more before we expect a substantial difference in the number of cases following a change in COVID-19 control measures, but 20-26 days to detect the impact of the change in reported data. The time frames are longer for smaller changes in control measures and are impacted by testing and reporting processes, with delays reaching ≥ 30 days.ConclusionThe time until a change in control measures has an observed impact is longer than the mean incubation period of COVID-19 and the commonly used 14-day time period. Policymakers and practitioners should consider this when assessing the impact of policy changes. Rapid, consistent and real-time COVID-19 surveillance is important to minimise these time frames.

SUBMITTER: Stockdale JE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8511756 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:In April 2020, during the peak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Europe, a cluster of children with hyperinflammatory shock with features similar to Kawasaki disease and toxic shock syndrome was reported in England* (1). The patients' signs and symptoms were temporally associated with COVID-19 but presumed to have developed 2-4 weeks after acute COVID-19; all children had serologic evidence of infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 (1). The clinical signs and symptoms present in this first cluster included fever, rash, conjunctivitis, peripheral edema, gastrointestinal symptoms, shock, and elevated markers of inflammation and cardiac damage (1). On May 14, 2020, CDC published an online Health Advisory that summarized the manifestations of reported multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), outlined a case definition,† and asked clinicians to report suspected U.S. cases to local and state health departments. As of July 29, a total of 570 U.S. MIS-C patients who met the case definition had been reported to CDC. A total of 203 (35.6%) of the patients had a clinical course consistent with previously published MIS-C reports, characterized predominantly by shock, cardiac dysfunction, abdominal pain, and markedly elevated inflammatory markers, and almost all had positive SARS-CoV-2 test results. The remaining 367 (64.4%) of MIS-C patients had manifestations that appeared to overlap with acute COVID-19 (2-4), had a less severe clinical course, or had features of Kawasaki disease.§ Median duration of hospitalization was 6 days; 364 patients (63.9%) required care in an intensive care unit (ICU), and 10 patients (1.8%) died. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to expand in many jurisdictions, clinicians should be aware of the signs and symptoms of MIS-C and report suspected cases to their state or local health departments; analysis of reported cases can enhance understanding of MIS-C and improve characterization of the illness for early detection and treatment.

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Long time frames to detect the impact of changing COVID-19 measures, Canada, March to July 2020.

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