Project description:BackgroundExposure to COVID-19 is more likely among certain occupations compared with others. This descriptive study seeks to explore occupational differences in mortality due to COVID-19 among workers in Massachusetts.MethodsDeath certificates of those who died from COVID-19 in Massachusetts between March 1 and July 31, 2020 were collected. Occupational information was coded and age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated according to occupation.ResultsThere were 555 deaths among MA residents of age 16-64, with usable occupation information, resulting in an age-adjusted mortality rate of 16.4 per 100,000 workers. Workers in 11 occupational groups including healthcare support and transportation and material moving had mortality rates higher than that for workers overall. Hispanic and Black workers had age-adjusted mortality rates more than four times higher than that for White workers overall and also had higher rates than Whites within high-risk occupation groups.ConclusionEfforts should be made to protect workers in high-risk occupations identified in this report from COVID-19 exposure.
Project description:BackgroundThe incidence of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) varies by race and ethnicity. This study assessed whether disparities in MIS-C in the United States by race and ethnicity exceed known disparities in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence.MethodsWe compared the distribution of race and ethnicity among patients with MIS-C (<21 years of age, termed children) with onset March 2020 to February 2021 to that of children with COVID-19 and in the general population. Analysis was restricted to 369 counties with high completeness of race and ethnicity reporting for MIS-C and COVID-19. For each racial and ethnic group, observed numbers of patients with MIS-C were compared with expected numbers (observed/expected ratio) in children with COVID-19 and in the general population within these counties.ResultsCompared with children in the general population, MIS-C was more frequent among Hispanic (139% of expected) and non-Hispanic Black children (183%) and less frequent among non-Hispanic White (64%) and non-Hispanic Asian children (48%). Compared with children with COVID-19, MIS-C was more frequent in non-Hispanic Black children (207% of expected) and less frequent in non-Hispanic White children (68%); however, frequency was not different among Hispanic (102%) and non-Hispanic Asian (74%) children.ConclusionsDisparities in MIS-C by race and ethnicity exist, even after controlling for COVID-19 disparities and geographic variations. The high proportion of MIS-C among Hispanic children and low proportion among non-Hispanic Asian children align with COVID-19 rates, while the high proportion among non-Hispanic Black children and low proportion among non-Hispanic White children are not explainable by COVID-19 rates.
Project description:Excess mortality has exceeded reported deaths from Covid-19 during the pandemic. This gap may be attributable to deaths that occurred among individuals with undiagnosed Covid-19 infections or indirect consequences of the pandemic response such as interruptions in medical care; distinguishing these possibilities has implications for public health responses. In the present study, we examined patterns of excess mortality over time and by setting (in-hospital or out-of-hospital) and cause of death using death certificate data from California. The estimated number of excess natural-cause deaths from 2020 March 1 to 2021 February 28 (69,182) exceeded the number of Covid-19 diagnosed deaths (53,667) by 29%. Nearly half, 47.4% (32,775), of excess natural-cause deaths occurred out of the hospital, where only 28.6% (9,366) of excess mortality was attributed to Covid-19. Over time, increases or decreases in excess natural non-Covid-19 mortality closely mirrored increases or decreases in Covid-19 mortality. The time series were positively correlated in out-of-hospital settings, particularly at time lags when excess natural-cause deaths preceded reported Covid-19 deaths; for example, when comparing Covid-19 deaths to excess natural-cause deaths in the week prior, the correlation was 0.73. The strong temporal association of reported Covid-19 deaths with excess out-of-hospital deaths from other reported natural-cause causes suggests Covid-19 deaths were undercounted during the first year of the pandemic.
Project description:BackgroundLittle is known about disparities in economic burden due to premature cancer deaths by race or ethnicity in the United States. This study aimed to compare person-years of life lost (PYLLs) and lost earnings due to premature cancer deaths by race/ethnicity.MethodsPYLLs were calculated using recent national cancer death and life expectancy data. PYLLs were combined with annual median earnings to generate lost earnings. We compared PYLLs and lost earnings among individuals who died at age 16-84 years due to cancer by racial/ethnic groups (non-Hispanic [NH] White, NH Black, NH Asian or Pacific Islander, and Hispanic).ResultsIn 2015, PYLLs due to all premature cancer deaths were 6 512 810 for NH Whites, 1 196 709 for NH Blacks, 279 721 for NH Asian or Pacific Islanders, and 665 968 for Hispanics, translating to age-standardized lost earning rates (per 100 000 person-years) of $34.9 million, $43.5 million, $22.2 million, and $24.5 million, respectively. NH Blacks had higher age-standardized PYLL and lost earning rates than NH Whites for 13 of 19 selected cancer sites. If age-specific PYLL and lost earning rates for NH Blacks were the same as those of NH Whites, 241 334 PYLLs and $3.2 billion lost earnings (22.6% of the total lost earnings among NH Blacks) would have been avoided. Disparities were also observed for average PYLLs and lost earnings per cancer death for all cancers combined and 18 of 19 cancer sites.ConclusionsImproving equal access to effective cancer prevention, screening, and treatment will be important in reducing the disproportional economic burden associated with racial/ethnic disparities.
Project description:BackgroundEstimating COVID-19 mortality is impeded by uncertainties in cause of death coding. In contrast, age-adjusted excess all-cause mortality is a robust indicator of how the COVID-19 pandemic impacts public health. However, in addition to COVID-19 deaths, excess mortality potentially also reflects indirect negative effects of public health measures aiming to contain the pandemic.ObjectivesThe study examines whether excess mortality in Germany between January 2020 and July 2021 is consistent with fatalities attributed to COVID-19 or may be partially due to indirect effects of public health measures.MethodsExcess mortality trends for the period from January 2020 to July 2021 were checked for consistency with deaths attributed to COVID-19 in both the German federal states and districts of Rhineland-Palatinate. The expected monthly mortality rates were predicted based on data from 2015-2019, taking into account the population demographics, air temperature, seasonal influenza activity, and cyclic and long-term time trends RESULTS: COVID-19-attributed mortality was included in the 95% prediction uncertainty intervals for excess mortality in 232 of 304 (76.3%) month-state combinations and in 607 of 684 (88.7%) month-district combinations. The Spearman rank correlation between excess mortality and COVID-19-attributed mortality across federal states was 0.42 (95% confidence interval [0.31; 0.53]) and 0.21 (95% confidence interval [0.13; 0.29]) across districts.ConclusionsThe good agreement of spatiotemporal excess mortality patterns with COVID-19 attributed mortality is consistent with the assumption that indirect adverse effects from public health interventions to contain the COVID-19 pandemic did not substantially contribute to excess mortality in Germany between January 2020 and July 2021.
Project description:IntroductionThis study uses multiple measures of excess deaths to analyze racial disparities in COVID-19 mortality across Georgia.MethodsThe Georgia Department of Public Health provided monthly mortality data for 2010-2020 stratified by race/ethnicity, age, county, and recorded cause of death. We first calculate crude mortality rates by health district during the time period for all groups for March through June for our historical period to identify significant time-series outliers in 2020 distinguishable from general trend variations. We then calculate the mean and standard deviation of mortality rates by age and racial subgroup to create historic confidence intervals that contextualize rates in 2020. Lastly, we use risk ratios to identify disparities in mortality between Black and White mortality rates both in the 2010-2019 period and in 2020.ResultsTime-series analysis identified three health districts with significant increases in mortality in 2020, located in metro Atlanta and Southwest Georgia. Mortality rates decreased sharply in 2020 for children in both racial categories in all sections of the state, but rose in a majority of districts for both categories in adult and older populations. Risk ratios also increased significantly in 2020 for children and older populations, showing rising disparities in mortality during the pandemic even as crude mortality rates declined for children classified as Black.ConclusionsIncreased mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak disproportionately affected African-Americans, possibly due, in part, to pre-existing disparities prior to the pandemic linked to social determinants of health. The pandemic deepened these disparities, perhaps due to unequal resources to effectively shelter-in-place or access medical care. Future research may identify local factors underlying geographically heterogenous differences in mortality rates to inform future policy interventions.
Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million population (DPM), infection fatality ratio (IFR) and case fatality ratio (CFR) are reported and compared for many countries globally. These measures may appear objective, however, they should be interpreted with caution.AimWe examined reported COVID-19-related mortality in Belgium from 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020, placing it against the background of excess mortality and compared the DPM and IFR between countries and within subgroups.MethodsThe relation between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality was evaluated by comparing COVID-19 mortality and the difference between observed and weekly average predictions of all-cause mortality. DPM were evaluated using demographic data of the Belgian population. The number of infections was estimated by a stochastic compartmental model. The IFR was estimated using a delay distribution between infection and death.ResultsIn the study period, 9,621 COVID-19-related deaths were reported, which is close to the excess mortality estimated using weekly averages (8,985 deaths). This translates to 837 DPM and an IFR of 1.5% in the general population. Both DPM and IFR increase with age and are substantially larger in the nursing home population.DiscussionDuring the first pandemic wave, Belgium had no discrepancy between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality. In light of this close agreement, it is useful to consider the DPM and IFR, which are both age, sex, and nursing home population-dependent. Comparison of COVID-19 mortality between countries should rather be based on excess mortality than on COVID-19-related mortality.
Project description:Background/objectivesTo determine racial/ethnic disparities in weekly counts of new COVID-19 cases and deaths among nursing home residents or staff.DesignCross-sectional analysis of national nursing home COVID-19 reports linked to other data. Multivariable two-part models modeled disparities in count of cases or deaths, and logistic regressions modeled disparities in self-reported shortages in staff and personal protective equipment (PPE), across nursing home groups with varying proportions of racial/ethnic minority residents, defined as low-, medium-, medium-high-, and high-proportion groups.SettingA total of 12,576 nursing homes nationally.ParticipantsNone.InterventionNone.MeasurementsNumbers of incident COVID-19 confirmed cases among residents and staff, and incident COVID-19 related deaths among residents (primary outcomes); and nursing home reported shortages in staff and PPE (secondary outcomes). All outcomes were reported for the week of May 25, 2020.ResultsThe number of weekly new COVID-19 confirmed cases among residents ranged from an average of 0.4 cases per facility (standard deviation (SD) = 2.5) for the low-proportion group (93.0% had zero new cases) to 1.5 cases per facility (SD = 6.3) for the high-proportion group (78.9% had zero new cases). Multivariable regression estimated that compared with the low-proportion group, the likelihood of having at least one new resident case was 76% higher (odds ratio = 1.76; 95% confidence interval = 1.38-2.25; P = .000) for the high-proportion group. Similar across-facility disparities were found for the weekly count of new COVID-19 deaths among residents (ranging from 0.1 deaths per facility (SD = 1.1) for the low-proportion group to 0.4 deaths (SD = 2.0) for the high-proportion group) and in the weekly count of new COVID-19 confirmed cases among staff (ranging from 0.3 cases (SD = 1.4] to 1.3 cases (SD = 4.4) per facility). No substantial disparities in self-reported shortages of staff or PPE were found.ConclusionNursing homes caring for disproportionately more racial/ethnic minority residents reported more weekly new COVID-19 confirmed cases and/or deaths. Immediate actions are needed to address these system-level disparities.
Project description:Accurate and timely tracking of COVID-19 deaths is essential to a well-functioning public health surveillance system. The extent to which official COVID-19 death tallies have captured the true toll of the pandemic in the United States is unknown. In the current study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate monthly excess mortality in each county over the first two years of the pandemic and compare these estimates to the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 on death certificates. Overall, we estimated that 268,176 excess deaths were not reported as Covid-19 deaths during the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, which represented 23.7% of all excess deaths that occurred. Differences between excess deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths were substantial in both the first and second year of the pandemic. Excess deaths were less likely to be reported as COVID-19 deaths in the Mountain division, in the South, and in nonmetro counties. The number of excess deaths exceeded COVID-19 deaths in all Census divisions except for the New England and Middle Atlantic divisions where there were more COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in large metro areas and medium or small metro areas. Increases in excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 followed similar patterns over time to increases in reported COVID-19 deaths and typically preceded or occurred concurrently with increases in reported COVID-19 deaths. Estimates from this study can be used to inform targeting of resources to areas in which the true toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been underestimated.