Dependence of COVID-19 Policies on End-of-Year Holiday Contacts in Mexico City Metropolitan Area: A Modeling Study
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Alarid-Escudero F
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8512280 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:This paper presents atmospheric gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) data recorded during two short-term monitoring surveys in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) at 12th May 2019 and at 22nd May 2020, during conditions of low and high human activity respectively. Results, although they are limited, can be considered as the representative range of exposure to GEM of the inhabitants of MCMA; differences in results reveal the impact of human activities on GEM background levels (2.53 and 3.76 ng m-3, respectively). GEM concentrations and their spatial distribution does not allow for the identification of important industrial sources and do not reach intervention pollution levels. The activity of the Popocatépetl volcano is not likely to have an effect on GEM in the MCMA. In spite the evident decrease in GEM concentrations compared with data previously reported, monitoring must be carried out routinely given Mexico's participation in the Minamata Convention on Mercury.
| S-EPMC8271313 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA), 70% of the water for 18 million inhabitants is derived from the Basin of Mexico regional aquifer. To provide an overview of the quality of the groundwater, a longitudinal study was conducted, in which 30 sites were randomly selected from 1,575 registered extraction wells. Samples were taken before and after chlorine disinfection during both the rainy and dry seasons (2000-2001). Microbiological parameters (total coliforms, fecal coliforms, streptococci, and Vibrio spp.), the presence of Helicobacter pylori, and physicochemical parameters, including the amount of trihalomethanes (THMs), were determined. Although microorganisms and inorganic and organic compounds were evident, they did not exceed current permissible limits. Chlorine levels were low, and the bacterial counts were not affected by chlorine disinfection. Eighty-four bacterial species from nine genera normally associated with fecal contamination were identified in water samples. H. pylori was detected in at least 10% of the studied samples. About 40% of the samples surpassed the THM concentration allowed by Mexican and U.S. regulations, with levels of chloroform being high. The quality of the water distributed to the MCMA varied between the rainy and dry seasons, with higher levels of pH, nitrates, chloroform, bromodichloromethane, total organic carbon, and fecal streptococci during the dry season. This study showed that the groundwater distribution system is susceptible to contamination and that there is a need for a strict, year-round disinfection strategy to ensure adequate drinking-water quality. This situation in one of the world's megacities may reflect what is happening in large urban centers in developing countries which rely on a groundwater supply.
| S-EPMC1214652 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We implemented a spatial model for analysing PM 10 maxima across the Mexico City metropolitan area during the period 1995-2016. We assumed that these maxima follow a non-identical generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and modeled the trend by introducing multivariate smoothing spline functions into the probability GEV distribution. A flexible, three-stage hierarchical Bayesian approach was developed to analyse the distribution of the PM 10 maxima in space and time. We evaluated the statistical model's performance by using a simulation study. The results showed strong evidence of a positive correlation between the PM 10 maxima and the longitude and latitude. The relationship between time and the PM 10 maxima was negative, indicating a decreasing trend over time. Finally, a high risk of PM 10 maxima presenting levels above 1000 μ g/m 3 (return period: 25 yr) was observed in the northwestern region of the study area.
| S-EPMC5551172 | biostudies-other
Project description:Evolutionary analyses of viral sequences can provide insights into transmission dynamics, which in turn can optimize prevention interventions. Here, we characterized the dynamics of HIV transmission within the Mexico City metropolitan area. HIV pol sequences from persons recently diagnosed at the largest HIV clinic in Mexico City (between 2016 and 2021) were annotated with demographic/geographic metadata. A multistep phylogenetic approach was applied to identify putative transmission clades. A data set of publicly available sequences was used to assess international introductions. Clades were analyzed with a discrete phylogeographic model to evaluate the timing and intensity of HIV introductions and transmission dynamics among municipalities in the region. A total of 6,802 sequences across 96 municipalities (5,192 from Mexico City and 1,610 from the neighboring State of Mexico) were included (93.6% cisgender men, 5.0% cisgender women, and 1.3% transgender women); 3,971 of these sequences formed 1,206 clusters, involving 78 municipalities, including 89 clusters of ≥10 sequences. Discrete phylogeographic analysis revealed (i) 1,032 viral introductions into the region, over one-half of which were from the United States, and (ii) 354 migration events between municipalities with high support (adjusted Bayes factor of ≥3). The most frequent viral migrations occurred between northern municipalities within Mexico City, i.e., Cuauhtémoc to Iztapalapa (5.2% of events), Iztapalapa to Gustavo A. Madero (5.4%), and Gustavo A. Madero to Cuauhtémoc (6.5%). Our analysis illustrates the complexity of HIV transmission within the Mexico City metropolitan area but also identifies a spatially active transmission area involving a few municipalities in the north of the city, where targeted interventions could have a more pronounced effect on the entire regional epidemic. IMPORTANCE Phylogeographic investigation of the Mexico City HIV epidemic illustrates the complexity of HIV transmission in the region. An active transmission area involving a few municipalities in the north of the city, with transmission links throughout the region, is identified and could be a location where targeted interventions could have a more pronounced effect on the entire regional epidemic, compared with those dispersed in other manners.
| S-EPMC9327710 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Meteorology and long-term trends in air pollutant concentrations may obscure the results from short-term policies implemented to improve air quality. This study presents changes in CO, NO2, O3, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 based on their anomalies during the COVID-19 partial (Phase 2) and total (Phase 3) lockdowns in Mexico City (MCMA). To minimise the impact of the air pollutant long-term trends, pollutant anomalies were calculated using as baseline truncated Fourier series, fitted with data from 2016 to 2019, and then compared with those from the lockdown. Additionally, days with stagnant conditions and heavy rain were excluded to reduce the impact of extreme weather changes. Satellite observations for NO2 and CO were used to contrast the ground-based derived results. During the lockdown Phase 2, only NO2 exhibited significant decreases (p < 0.05) of between 10 and 23% due to reductions in motor vehicle emissions. By contrast, O3 increased (p < 0.05) between 16 and 40% at the same sites where NO2 decreased. During Phase 3, significant decreases (p < 0.05) were observed for NO2 (43%), PM10 (20%), and PM2.5 (32%) in response to the total lockdown. Although O3 concentrations were lower in Phase 3 than during Phase 2, those did not decrease (p < 0.05) from the baseline at any site despite the total lockdown. SO2 decreased only during Phase 3 in a near-road environment. Satellite observations confirmed that NO2 decreased and CO stabilised during the total lockdown. Air pollutant changes during the lockdown could be overestimated between 2 and 10-fold without accounting for the influences of meteorology and long-term trends in pollutant concentrations. Air quality improved significantly during the lockdown driven by reduced NO2 and PM2.5 emissions despite increases in O3, resulting in health benefits for the MCMA population. A health assessment conducted suggested that around 588 deaths related to air pollution exposure were averted during the lockdown. Our results show that to reduce O3 within the MCMA, policies must focus on reducing VOCs emissions from non-mobile sources. The measures implemented during the COVID-19 lockdowns provide valuable information to reduce air pollution through a range of abatement strategies for emissions other than from motor vehicles.
| S-EPMC8026884 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the first months of 2016, the Mexico City Metropolitan Area experienced the worst air pollution crisis in the last decade, prompting drastic short-term solutions by the Mexico City Government and neighboring States. In order to help further the search for long-term sustainable solutions, we felt obliged to immediately release the results of our research regarding the monitoring of carbon sequestration by green roofs. Large-scale naturation, such as the implementation of green roofs, provides a way to partially mitigate the increased carbon dioxide output in urban areas. Here, we quantified the carbon sequestration capabilities of two ornamental succulent plant species, Sedum dendroideum and Sedum rubrotinctum, which require low maintenance, and little or no irrigation. To obtain a detailed picture of these plants' carbon sequestration capabilities, we measured carbon uptake on the Sedum plants by quantifying carbon dioxide exchange and fixation as organic acids, during the day and across the year, on a green roof located in Southern Mexico City. The species displayed their typical CAM photosynthetic metabolism. Moreover, our quantification allowed us to conservatively estimate that a newly planted green roof of Sedum sequesters approximately 180,000,000 ppm of carbon dioxide per year in a green roof of 100 square meters in the short term. The patterns of CAM and carbon dioxide sequestration were highly robust to the fluctuations of temperature and precipitation between seasons, and therefore we speculate that carbon sequestration would be comparable in any given year of a newly planted green roof. Older green roof would require regular trimming to mantain their carbon sink properties, but their carbon sequestration capabilities remain to be quantified. Nevertheless, we propose that Sedum green roofs can be part of the long-term solutions to mitigate the air pollution crisis in the Mexico City Metropolitan area, and other "megacities" with marked seasonal drought.
| S-EPMC5400495 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSatellite-based PM2.5 predictions are being used to advance exposure science and air-pollution epidemiology in developed countries; including emerging evidence about the impacts of PM2.5 on acute health outcomes beyond the cardiovascular and respiratory systems, and the potential modifying effects from individual-level factors in these associations. Research on these topics is lacking in low and middle income countries. We aimed to explore the association between short-term exposure to PM2.5 with broad-category and cause-specific mortality outcomes in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA), and potential effect modification by age, sex, and SES characteristics in such associations.MethodsWe used a time-stratified case-crossover study design with 1,479,950 non-accidental deaths from the MCMA for the period of 2004-2019. Daily 1 × 1 km PM2.5 (median = 23.4 μg/m3; IQR = 13.6 μg/m3) estimates from our satellite-based regional model were employed for exposure assessment at the sub-municipality level. Associations between PM2.5 with broad-category (organ-system) and cause-specific mortality outcomes were estimated with distributed lag conditional logistic models. We also fit models stratifying by potential individual-level effect modifiers including; age, sex, and individual SES-related characteristics namely: education, health insurance coverage, and job categories. Odds ratios were converted into percent increase for ease of interpretation.ResultsPM2.5 exposure was associated with broad-category mortality outcomes, including all non-accidental, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, respiratory, and digestive mortality. A 10-μg/m3 PM2.5 higher cumulative exposure over one week (lag06) was associated with higher cause-specific mortality outcomes including hypertensive disease [2.28% (95%CI: 0.26%-4.33%)], acute ischemic heart disease [1.61% (95%CI: 0.59%-2.64%)], other forms of heart disease [2.39% (95%CI: -0.35%-5.20%)], hemorrhagic stroke [3.63% (95%CI: 0.79%-6.55%)], influenza and pneumonia [4.91% (95%CI: 2.84%-7.02%)], chronic respiratory disease [2.49% (95%CI: 0.71%-4.31%)], diseases of the liver [1.85% (95%CI: 0.31%-3.41%)], and renal failure [3.48% (95%CI: 0.79%-6.24%)]. No differences in effect size of associations were observed between age, sex and SES strata.ConclusionsExposure to PM2.5 was associated with non-accidental, broad-category and cause-specific mortality outcomes beyond the cardiovascular and respiratory systems, including specific death-causes from the digestive and genitourinary systems, with no indication of effect modification by individual-level characteristics.
| S-EPMC10580614 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of mortality rates in a highly heterogeneous metropolis, is a matter of public policy interest. In this context, there is no, to the best of our knowledge, previous studies that correlate both spatio-temporal and age-specific mortality rates in Mexico City. Spatio-temporal Kriging modeling was used over five age-specific mortality rates (from the years 2000 to 2016 in Mexico City), to gain both spatial (borough and neighborhood) and temporal (year and trimester) data level description. Mortality age-specific patterns have been modeled using multilevel modeling for longitudinal data. Posterior tests were carried out to compare mortality averages between geo-spatial locations. Mortality correlation extends in all study groups for as long as 12 years and as far as 13.27 km. The highest mortality rate takes place in the Cuauhtémoc borough, the commercial, touristic and cultural core downtown of Mexico City. On the contrary, Tlalpan borough is the one with the lowest mortality rates in all the study groups. Post-productive mortality is the first age-specific cause of death, followed by infant, productive, pre-school and scholar groups. The combinations of spatio-temporal Kriging estimation and time-evolution linear mixed-effect models, allowed us to unveil relevant time and location trends that may be useful for public policy planning in Mexico City.
| S-EPMC7815139 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Urbanization is an increasingly pervasive form of land transformation that reduces biodiversity of many taxonomic groups. Beetles exhibit a broad range of responses to urbanization, likely due to the high functional diversity in this order. Carrion beetles (Order: Coleoptera, Family: Silphidae) provide an important ecosystem service by promoting decomposition of small-bodied carcasses, and have previously been found to decline due to forest fragmentation caused by urbanization. However, New York City (NYC) and many other cities have fairly large continuous forest patches that support dense populations of small mammals, and thus may harbor relatively robust carrion beetle communities in city parks. In this study, we investigated carrion beetle community composition, abundance and diversity in forest patches along an urban-to-rural gradient spanning the urban core (Central Park, NYC) to outlying rural areas. We conducted an additional study comparing the current carrion beetle community at a single suburban site in Westchester County, NY that was intensively surveyed in the early 1970's. We collected a total of 2,170 carrion beetles from eight species at 13 sites along this gradient. We report little to no effect of urbanization on carrion beetle diversity, although two species were not detected in any urban parks. Nicrophorus tomentosus was the most abundant species at all sites and seemed to dominate the urban communities, potentially due to its generalist habits and shallower burying depth compared to the other beetles surveyed. Variation between species body size, habitat specialization, and % forest area surrounding the surveyed sites also did not influence carrion beetle communities. Lastly, we found few significant differences in relative abundance of 10 different carrion beetle species between 1974 and 2015 at a single site in Westchester County, NY, although two of the rare species in the early 1970's were not detected in 2015. These results indicate that NYC's forested parks have the potential to sustain carrion beetle communities and the ecosystem services they provide.
| S-EPMC5356479 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Autochthonous transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi, the primary agent of Lyme disease in dogs and people in North America, commonly occurs in the northeastern United States, including the New York City metropolitan area, a region with a large human and pet population and broadly diverse demographics and habitats. METHODS:We evaluated results from a specific, C6-based serologic assay performed on 234,633 canine samples to compare evidence of past or current infection with B. burgdorferi (sensu stricto) in dogs to county-wide social and environmental factors, as well as to reported cases of Lyme disease in people. RESULTS:The data revealed a wide range of county level percent positive canine test results (1.2-27.3%) and human case reports (0.5-438.7 case reports/100,000 people). Dogs from highly (> 50%) forested areas and counties with lower population density had the highest percent positive test results, at 21.1% and 17.9%, respectively. Canine percent positive tests correlated with population-adjusted human case reports (R2 = 0.48, P < 0.0001), as well as population density, development intensity, temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, and habitat type. Subsequent multiple regression allowed an accurate prediction of infection risk in dogs (R2 = 0.90) but was less accurate at predicting human case reports (R2 = 0.74). CONCLUSION:In areas where Lyme disease is endemic, canine serology continues to provide insight into risk factors for transmission to both dogs and people although some differences in geographic patterns of canine infection and human disease reports are evident.
| S-EPMC5859393 | biostudies-literature