Choice of Outcome in COVID-19 Studies and Implications for Policy: Mortality and Fatality.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Westreich D
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8513401 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Due to COVID 19 (Corona virus disease)pandemic, majority of surgeries, including surgery for cancer patients got delayed across the globe. Surgeries were limited to emergency set up only. At our institute we tried to perform colorectal cancer surgeries through out the pandemic, albeit in less numbers, as we thought cancer in itself is an emergency setting. we are planning to analyse the prospectively managed database of this particular group of patients over a period of last six 6 months and look out at 30 day post operative morbidity and mortality. Besides we will try to analyse the implications of our decision to carry on with cancer surgeries in terms of number of health care workers who got infected while being involved in primary care of these patients.
| 2354636 | ecrin-mdr-crc
Project description:ObjectivesCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the most devastating pandemic to affect humanity in a century. In this article, we assessed tests as a policy instrument and policy enactment to contain COVID-19 and potentially reduce mortalities.Study designA model was devised to estimate the factors that influenced the death rate across 121 nations and by income group.ResultsNations with a higher proportion of people aged 65+ years had a higher fatality rate (P = 0.00014). Delaying policy enactment led to a higher case fatality rate (P = 0.0013). A 10% delay time to act resulted in a 3.7% higher case fatality rate. This study found that delaying policies for international travel restrictions, public information campaigns, and testing policies increased the fatality rate. Tests also impacted the case fatality rate, and nations with 10% more cumulative tests per million people showed a 2.8% lower mortality rate. Citizens of nations who can access more destinations without the need to have a prior visa have a significant higher mortality rate than those who need a visa to travel abroad (P = 0.0040).ConclusionTests, as a surrogate of policy action and earlier policy enactment, matter for saving lives from pandemics as such policies reduce the transmission rate of the pandemic.
| S-EPMC7434485 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Determine age-specific infection fatality rates for COVID-19 to inform public health policies and communications that help protect vulnerable age groups. Studies of COVID-19 prevalence were collected by conducting an online search of published articles, preprints, and government reports that were publicly disseminated prior to 18 September 2020. The systematic review encompassed 113 studies, of which 27 studies (covering 34 geographical locations) satisfied the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. Age-specific IFRs were computed using the prevalence data in conjunction with reported fatalities 4 weeks after the midpoint date of the study, reflecting typical lags in fatalities and reporting. Meta-regression procedures in Stata were used to analyze the infection fatality rate (IFR) by age. Our analysis finds a exponential relationship between age and IFR for COVID-19. The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85. Moreover, our results indicate that about 90% of the variation in population IFR across geographical locations reflects differences in the age composition of the population and the extent to which relatively vulnerable age groups were exposed to the virus. These results indicate that COVID-19 is hazardous not only for the elderly but also for middle-aged adults, for whom the infection fatality rate is two orders of magnitude greater than the annualized risk of a fatal automobile accident and far more dangerous than seasonal influenza. Moreover, the overall IFR for COVID-19 should not be viewed as a fixed parameter but as intrinsically linked to the age-specific pattern of infections. Consequently, public health measures to mitigate infections in older adults could substantially decrease total deaths.
| S-EPMC7721859 | biostudies-literature
Project description:While the rapid expansion of telemedicine in response to the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the impressive ability of health systems to adapt quickly to new complexities, it also raises important concerns about how to implement these novel modalities equitably. As the healthcare system becomes increasingly virtual, it risks widening disparities among marginalized populations who have worse health outcomes at baseline and limited access to the resources necessary for the effective use of telemedicine. In this article, we review recent policy changes and outline important recommendations that governments and health care systems can adopt to improve access to telemedicine and to tailor the use of these technologies to best meet the needs of underserved patients. We suggest that by making health equity integral to the implementation of telemedicine now, it will help to ensure that all can benefit from its use going forward and that this will be increasingly integral to care delivery.
| S-EPMC7428456 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThere is a worrying lack of epidemiological data on the sex differential in COVID-19 infection and death rates between the regions of Peru.MethodsUsing cases and death data from the national population-based surveillance system of Peru, we estimated incidence, mortality and fatality, stratified by sex, age and geographic distribution (per 100,000 habitants) from March 16 to November 27, 2020. At the same time, we calculated the risk of COVID-19 death.ResultsDuring the study period, 961894 cases and 35913 deaths were reported in Peru. Men had a twofold higher risk of COVID-19 death within the overall population of Peru (odds ratio (OR), 2.11; confidence interval (CI) 95%; 2.06-2.16; p<0.00001), as well as 20 regions of Peru, compared to women (p<0.05). There were variations in incidence, mortality and fatality rates stratified by sex, age, and region. The incidence rate was higher among men than among women (3079 vs. 2819 per 100,000 habitants, respectively). The mortality rate was two times higher in males than in females (153 vs. 68 per 100,000 habitants, respectively). The mortality rates increased with age, and were high in men 60 years of age or older. The fatality rate was two times higher in men than in women (4.96% vs. 2.41%, respectively), and was high in men 50 years of age or older.ConclusionsThese findings show the higher incidence, mortality and fatality rates among men than among women from Peru. These rates vary widely by region, and men are at greater risk of COVID-19 death. In addition, the mortality and fatality rates increased with age, and were most predominant in men 50 years of age or older.
| S-EPMC8202928 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact human health and welfare on a global level. In March 2020, stringent national restrictions were enforced in the UK to protect public health and slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Restrictions were likely to have resulted in collateral consequences for the health and welfare of horses and ponies, especially those at risk of obesity and laminitis and this issue warranted more detailed exploration. The current study utilised qualitative methodology to investigate the implications of COVID-19 related policies upon equine management and welfare with a focus on horses and ponies at risk of laminitis and obesity. Twenty-four interviews with five sub-groups of key equestrian welfare stakeholders in the UK were conducted between May and July of 2020 to understand the challenges facing equine welfare in the context of laminitis and obesity susceptible animals. Thematic analysis revealed lockdown-associated factors with the potential to compromise welfare of horses and ponies at risk of obesity and laminitis. These included: disparate information and guidance, difficulties enacting public health measures in yard environments, and horses having reduced exercise during the pandemic. Positive examples of clear and consistent information sharing by farriers were reported to have improved horse owner understanding of routine hoof care during lockdown. Analysis suggested that the recommendations for supporting the management-based needs of horses under reduced supervision were not clearly defined, or were not sufficiently disseminated, across the equine industry. These findings support the development of guidelines specific to the care of horses and ponies at risk of obesity and laminitis through collaborative input from veterinary and welfare experts, to reduce the negative impacts of future lockdown events in the UK.
| S-EPMC8162578 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Clinical features and natural history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ widely among different countries and during different phases of the pandemia. Here, we aimed to evaluate the case fatality rate (CFR) and to identify predictors of mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients admitted to three hospitals of Northern Italy between March 1 and April 28, 2020. All these patients had a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection by molecular methods. During the study period 504/1697 patients died; thus, overall CFR was 29.7%. We looked for predictors of mortality in a subgroup of 486 patients (239 males, 59%; median age 71 years) for whom sufficient clinical data were available at data cut-off. Among the demographic and clinical variables considered, age, a diagnosis of cancer, obesity and current smoking independently predicted mortality. When laboratory data were added to the model in a further subgroup of patients, age, the diagnosis of cancer, and the baseline PaO2/FiO2 ratio were identified as independent predictors of mortality. In conclusion, the CFR of hospitalized patients in Northern Italy during the ascending phase of the COVID-19 pandemic approached 30%. The identification of mortality predictors might contribute to better stratification of individual patient risk.
| S-EPMC7692524 | biostudies-literature
Project description:At the centre of the multi-dimensional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the shortage of medical supplies in countries with weaker healthcare systems significantly reduced the effectiveness of national and international public health interventions. Using a database of test-kit trade flows and barriers, we estimate the price responsiveness of test-kit demand in a global sample of countries. These estimates allow us to investigate the degree to which import tariffs by leading producers could result in a disruption in global supply chains, price increases, and welfare loss. Simulation experiments indicate that the combination of rising demand for test kits and import dependence magnifies the impact of trade barriers on consumer welfare and this impact is more profound for developing countries.
| S-EPMC9115466 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:The novel human coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has claimed more than 240,000 lives worldwide, causing tremendous public health, social, and economic damages. While the risk factors of COVID-19 are still under investigation, environmental factors, such as urban air pollution, may play an important role in increasing population susceptibility to COVID-19 pathogenesis. Methods:We conducted a cross-sectional nationwide study using zero-inflated negative binomial models to estimate the association between long-term (2010-2016) county-level exposures to NO2, PM2.5 and O3 and county-level COVID-19 case-fatality and mortality rates in the US. We used both single and multipollutant models and controlled for spatial trends and a comprehensive set of potential confounders, including state-level test positive rate, county-level healthcare capacity, phase-of-epidemic, population mobility, sociodemographic, socioeconomic status, behavior risk factors, and meteorological factors. Results:1,027,799 COVID-19 cases and 58,489 deaths were reported in 3,122 US counties from January 22, 2020 to April 29, 2020, with an overall observed case-fatality rate of 5.8%. Spatial variations were observed for both COVID-19 death outcomes and long-term ambient air pollutant levels. County-level average NO2 concentrations were positively associated with both COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate in single-, bi-, and tri-pollutant models (p-values<0.05). Per inter-quartile range (IQR) increase in NO2 (4.6 ppb), COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate were associated with an increase of 7.1% (95% CI 1.2% to 13.4%) and 11.2% (95% CI 3.4% to 19.5%), respectively. We did not observe significant associations between long-term exposures to PM2.5 or O3 and COVID-19 death outcomes (p-values>0.05), although per IQR increase in PM2.5 (3.4 ug/m3) was marginally associated with 10.8% (95% CI: -1.1% to 24.1%) increase in COVID-19 mortality rate. Discussions and Conclusions:Long-term exposure to NO2, which largely arises from urban combustion sources such as traffic, may enhance susceptibility to severe COVID-19 outcomes, independent of long-term PM2.5 and O3 exposure. The results support targeted public health actions to protect residents from COVID-19 in heavily polluted regions with historically high NO2 levels. Moreover, continuation of current efforts to lower traffic emissions and ambient air pollution levels may be an important component of reducing population-level risk of COVID-19 deaths.
| S-EPMC7273261 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe novel human coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has claimed more than 600,000 lives worldwide, causing tremendous public health, social, and economic damages. Although the risk factors of COVID-19 are still under investigation, environmental factors, such as urban air pollution, may play an important role in increasing population susceptibility to COVID-19 pathogenesis.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional nationwide study using zero-inflated negative binomial models to estimate the association between long-term (2010-2016) county-level exposures to NO2, PM2.5, and O3 and county-level COVID-19 case-fatality and mortality rates in the United States. We used both single- and multi-pollutant models and controlled for spatial trends and a comprehensive set of potential confounders, including state-level test positive rate, county-level health care capacity, phase of epidemic, population mobility, population density, sociodemographics, socioeconomic status, race and ethnicity, behavioral risk factors, and meteorology.ResultsFrom January 22, 2020, to July 17, 2020, 3,659,828 COVID-19 cases and 138,552 deaths were reported in 3,076 US counties, with an overall observed case-fatality rate of 3.8%. County-level average NO2 concentrations were positively associated with both COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate in single-, bi-, and tri-pollutant models. When adjusted for co-pollutants, per interquartile-range (IQR) increase in NO2 (4.6 ppb), COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate were associated with an increase of 11.3% (95% CI 4.9%-18.2%) and 16.2% (95% CI 8.7%-24.0%), respectively. We did not observe significant associations between COVID-19 case-fatality rate and long-term exposure to PM2.5 or O3, although per IQR increase in PM2.5 (2.6 μg/m3) was marginally associated, with a 14.9% (95% CI 0.0%-31.9%) increase in COVID-19 mortality rate when adjusted for co-pollutants.DiscussionLong-term exposure to NO2, which largely arises from urban combustion sources such as traffic, may enhance susceptibility to severe COVID-19 outcomes, independent of long-term PM2.5 and O3 exposure. The results support targeted public health actions to protect residents from COVID-19 in heavily polluted regions with historically high NO2 levels. Continuation of current efforts to lower traffic emissions and ambient air pollution may be an important component of reducing population-level risk of COVID-19 case fatality and mortality.
| S-EPMC7505160 | biostudies-literature