The Potential Impact of Long-Acting Cabotegravir for HIV Prevention in South Africa: A Mathematical Modeling Study.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Although effective, some oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users face barriers to adherence using daily pills, which could be reduced by long-acting formulations. Long-acting cabotegravir (CAB LA) is a potential new injectable formulation for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) PrEP being tested in phase III trials.Methods
We use a mathematical model of the HIV epidemic in South Africa to simulate CAB LA uptake by population groups with different levels of HIV risk. We compare the trajectory of the HIV epidemic until 2050 with and without CAB LA to estimate the impact of the intervention.Results
Delivering CAB LA to 10% of the adult population could avert more than 15% of new infections from 2023 to 2050. The impact would be lower but more efficient if delivered to populations at higher HIV risk: 127 person-years of CAB LA use would be required to avert one HIV infection within 5 years if used by all adults and 47 person-years if used only by the highest risk women.Conclusions
If efficacious, a CAB LA intervention could have a substantial impact on the course of the HIV epidemic in South Africa. Uptake by those at the highest risk of infection, particularly young women, could improve the efficiency of any intervention.
SUBMITTER: Smith JA
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8514192 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Purpose of reviewThis review highlights the development of long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB LA) for HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), with a focus on phase 2 studies and later development.Recent findingsEarly studies of CAB LA for HIV prevention offered promising pharmacokinetic data and paved the way for phase 2 studies, which have now been completed. On the basis of phase 2 data, dosing of CAB LA at 8-week intervals consistently delivers target trough concentrations in both men and women. Recent studies have shown no required dose adjustments for hepatic or renal disease and minimal drug--drug interactions. Additionally, injectable PrEP is desired by potential PrEP candidates. Still, gaps in knowledge remain with respect to implementation and delivery, the clinical significance of the pharmacologic tail, and dosing in key populations. Phase 3 trials are underway that are anticipated to inform some of these questions and provide efficacy and safety data to support regulatory submissions for CAB LA as a potential PrEP agent.SummaryRecent studies have defined an appropriate CAB LA dosing interval and offered insight into its safety profile. Phase 3 studies will provide much-anticipated efficacy data. If efficacious, CAB LA may provide a desirable PrEP option for those who face challenges to daily pill adherence. A more complete understanding of how to best integrate LA PrEP into service delivery models will be critical for success.
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Project description:The retrovirus HIV-1 is the etiological agent of the decades-long AIDS pandemic. Although vaccination is the most common preexposure route to prevent acquisition of viral disease, scalable efficacious vaccination strategies have yet to be developed for HIV-1. By contrast, small molecule inhibitors of the HIV-1 enzymes reverse transcriptase, integrase, and protease have been developed that effectively block virus replication. Three different drug compounds are commonly prescribed for people living with HIV as once-daily oral tablets. Once-daily pills composed of two different reverse transcriptase inhibitors are moreover approved as preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) treatment for virus naïve individuals who may partake in behaviors associated with increased risk of HIV-1 acquisition such as unprotected sex or injection drug use. Long-acting (LA) injectable HIV-1 enzyme inhibitors are at the same time being developed to sidestep adherence noncompliance issues that can arise from self-administered once-daily oral dosing regimens. Cabotegravir (CAB)-LA, which inhibits integrase strand transfer activity, has in recent clinical trials been shown to prevent HIV-1 acquisition more effectively than once-daily oral dosed reverse transcriptase inhibitors. In this Perspective, we examine bench to bedside aspects of CAB-LA treatment and development, starting from the biochemical basis of HIV-1 integration and pharmacological inhibition of integrase catalysis. We also review the results of recent clinical trials that evaluated CAB-LA, as well as the promises and challenges that surround its use for HIV/AIDS PrEP.
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Project description:Purpose of reviewCabotegravir (CAB) and rilpivirine (RPV) is the first long-acting injectable antiretroviral therapy (ART) option approved for virologically suppressed adults with HIV-1. In addition, long-acting CAB is a promising agent for HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP). This review focuses on phase 3 clinical trial results and implementation considerations for these long-acting ART and PrEP strategies.Recent findingsLong-acting CAB and RPV administered every 4 weeks demonstrated noninferiority to oral ART through week 96 in both the ATLAS and FLAIR studies, whereas ATLAS-2M found similar efficacy through 96 weeks when the long-acting injectable ART was administered every 8 weeks instead of every 4 weeks. For prevention, two phase 3 trials were stopped early due to fewer incident HIV infections in participants receiving long-acting CAB every 8 weeks compared with daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-emtricitabine for PrEP. The long-acting therapies were well tolerated across all clinical trials.SummaryClinical trial results support the use of long-acting CAB for HIV PrEP and long-acting CAB and RPV as a switch strategy for adults with HIV-1 who are first virologically suppressed with oral ART. Implementation challenges persist, and data are urgently needed in populations who may benefit most from long-acting therapy, including adolescents, pregnant individuals, and those with barriers to medication adherence.
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Project description:BackgroundLong-acting cabotegravir (CAB-LA) is highly effective for HIV prevention, but delayed HIV diagnoses and integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) resistance were observed in trials. We report the first case in routine clinical care of HIV infection on CAB-LA with INSTI resistance.MethodsThe SeroPrEP study enrolls individuals in the United States who acquire HIV on pre-exposure prophylaxis modalities to assess diagnostics, antiretroviral (ARV) drug levels, resistance, and treatment outcomes. Resistance mutations in full-length HIV-1 integrase were identified by single-genome sequencing (SGS). Cabotegravir concentrations in plasma and hair segments were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry.ResultsA 23-year-old gender-nonbinary person, male at birth, restarted CAB-LA 6 months after discontinuation due to losing insurance. Prior to restart, HIV-1 RNA was not detected, but 20 days elapsed before CAB-LA injection. After the second CAB-LA injection, HIV antigen/antibody returned reactive (HIV-1 RNA 451 copies/mL). SGS of plasma HIV-1 RNA identified INSTI mutation Q148R in 2/24 sequences 2 days postdiagnosis; commercial genotype failed amplification. Cabotegravir hair concentration was 0.190 ng/mg 2 weeks prediagnosis; plasma cabotegravir was high (3.37 μg/mL; ∼20× PA-IC90) 14 days postdiagnosis. Viral suppression was maintained for 6 months on darunavir/cobicistat/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide, then switched to doravirine + emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide due to nausea.ConclusionsIn this first case of HIV infection on CAB-LA with INSTI resistance in routine care, cabotegravir resistance was detected only with a sensitive research assay. Accelerated pathways to minimize time between HIV testing and CAB-LA initiation are needed to optimize acute HIV detection and mitigate resistance risk. Sustained product access regardless of insurance is imperative to reduce HIV infections on CAB-LA.
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Project description:IntroductionAlthough pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP.) is an efficacious HIV prevention strategy, its preventive benefit has not been shown among young women in sub-Saharan Africa, likely due to non-adherence. Adherence may be improved with the use of injectable long-acting PrEP methods currently being developed. We hypothesize that providing long-acting PrEP to women using injectable contraceptives, the most frequently used contraceptive method in South Africa, could improve adherence to PrEP, result in a reduction of new HIV infections, and be a relatively easy-to-reach target population. In this modelling study, we assessed the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of providing long-acting PrEP to injectable contraceptive users in Limpopo, South Africa.MethodsWe developed a deterministic mathematical model calibrated to the HIV epidemic in Limpopo. Long-acting PrEP was provided to 50% of HIV negative injectable contraceptive users in 2018 and scaled-up over two years. We estimated the number of HIV infections that could be averted by 2030 and the drug price of long-acting PrEP for which this intervention would be cost-effective over a time horizon of 40 years, from a healthcare payer perspective. In the base-case scenario we assumed long-acting PrEP is 75% effective in preventing HIV infections and 85% of infected individuals are on antiretroviral drug therapy (ART) by 2030. In sensitivity analyses we adjusted PrEP effectiveness and ART coverage. Costs between $519 and $1119 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted were considered potentially cost-effective, and <$519 as cost-effective.ResultsWithout long-acting injectable PrEP, 224,000 (interquartile range 176,000 to 271,000) new infections will occur by 2030; use of long-acting injectable PrEP could prevent 21,000 (17,000 to 26,000) or 9.8% (8.9% to 10.6%) new HIV infections by 2030 (including 6000 (4000 to 7000) in men). Long-acting PrEP would prevent 34,000 (29,000 to 39,000) or 12,000 (8000 to 15,000) at 75% and 95% ART coverage by 2030 respectively. To be considered potentially cost-effective the annual long-acting PrEP drug price should be <$16, and/or ART coverage remains at <85% in 2030.ConclusionsProviding long-acting PrEP to injectable contraceptive users in Limpopo is only potentially cost-effective when long-acting PrEP drug prices are low. If low prices are not feasible, providing long-acting PrEP only to women at high risk of HIV infection will become important.
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Project description:BackgroundMultiple prevention measures have the possibility of impacting HIV incidence in South Korea, including early diagnosis, early treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We investigated how each of these interventions could impact the local HIV epidemic, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM), who have become the major risk group in South Korea. A mathematical model was used to estimate the effects of each these interventions on the HIV epidemic in South Korea over the next 40 years, as compared to the current situation.MethodsWe constructed a mathematical model of HIV infection among MSM in South Korea, dividing the MSM population into seven groups, and simulated the effects of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), early diagnosis, PrEP, and combination interventions on the incidence and prevalence of HIV infection, as compared to the current situation that would be expected without any new prevention measures.ResultsOverall, the model suggested that the most effective prevention measure would be PrEP. Even though PrEP effectiveness could be lessened by increased unsafe sex behavior, PrEP use was still more beneficial than the current situation. In the model, early diagnosis of HIV infection was also effectively decreased HIV incidence. However, early ART did not show considerable effectiveness. As expected, it would be most effective if all interventions (PrEP, early diagnosis and early treatment) were implemented together.ConclusionsThis model suggests that PrEP and early diagnosis could be a very effective way to reduce HIV incidence in South Korea among MSM.
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Project description:HIV prevention trials have demonstrated the effectiveness of a number of behavioral and biomedical interventions. HIV prevention packages are combinations of interventions and offer potential to significantly increase the effectiveness of any single intervention. Estimates of the effectiveness of prevention packages are important for guiding the development of prevention strategies and for characterizing effect sizes before embarking on large scale trials. Unfortunately, most research to date has focused on testing single interventions rather than HIV prevention packages. Here we report the results from agent-based modeling of the effectiveness of HIV prevention packages for men who have sex with men (MSM) in South Africa. We consider packages consisting of four components: antiretroviral therapy for HIV infected persons with CD4 count <350; PrEP for high risk uninfected persons; behavioral interventions to reduce rates of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI); and campaigns to increase HIV testing. We considered 163 HIV prevention packages corresponding to different intensity levels of the four components. We performed 2252 simulation runs of our agent-based model to evaluate those packages. We found that a four component package consisting of a 15% reduction in the rate of UAI, 50% PrEP coverage of high risk uninfected persons, 50% reduction in persons who never test for HIV, and 50% ART coverage over and above persons already receiving ART at baseline, could prevent 33.9% of infections over 5 years (95% confidence interval, 31.5, 36.3). The package components with the largest incremental prevention effects were UAI reduction and PrEP coverage. The impact of increased HIV testing was magnified in the presence of PrEP. We find that HIV prevention packages that include both behavioral and biomedical components can in combination prevent significant numbers of infections with levels of coverage, acceptance and adherence that are potentially achievable among MSM in South Africa.
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Project description:Long-acting cabotegravir may provide a novel therapeutic option for both the treatment and prevention of HIV-1 infection that does not necessitate adherence to a daily regimen. The present review will highlight the unique formulation properties and pharmacologic attributes of long-acting cabotegravir nanosuspension.Cabotegravir is a potent integrase strand transfer inhibitor that has been formulated as an oral tablet for daily administration and as a long-acting injectable nanosuspension. Long-acting cabotegravir is readily absorbed following intramuscular and subcutaneous administration and has an elimination half-life of approximately 40 days, allowing for administration on a monthly or less frequent schedule. Repeat-dose pharmacokinetic studies and population pharmacokinetic modeling indicate monthly and bi-monthly dosing achieves clinically relevant plasma concentrations considered effective for HIV maintenance therapy and that quarterly injections are appropriate for investigation as preexposure prophylaxis. Cabotegravir is primarily metabolized by uridine diphosphate glucuronosyltransferase 1A1 and is unlikely to be impacted by the cytochrome P450 metabolic pathway. In vitro and in vivo data suggest cabotegravir has a low propensity to cause, or be subject to, significant drug interactions.The pharmacologic profile of long-acting cabotegravir supports its continued development for both treatment and prevention of HIV-1 infection.
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Project description:BackgroundThe use of a combination of the integrase inhibitor, cabotegravir, and the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, rilpivirine, in a long-acting injectable form is being considered as an antiretroviral treatment option for people with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to model the effects of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine to help to inform its potential effectiveness and cost-effectiveness under different possible policies for its introduction.MethodsWe used an existing individual-based model of HIV to predict the effects of introducing monthly injections of cabotegravir-rilpivirine for people with HIV in low-income settings in sub-Saharan Africa. We evaluated policies in the context of 1000 setting scenarios that reflected characteristics of HIV epidemics and programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. We compared three policies for introduction of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine with continued use of dolutegravir-based oral regimens for: all individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART); individuals with a recently measured viral load of more than 1000 copies per mL (signifying poor adherence to oral drugs, and often associated with drug resistance); and individuals with a recently measured viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL (a group with a lower prevalence of pre-existing drug resistance). We also did cost-effectiveness analysis, taking a health system perspective over a 10 year period, with 3% discounting of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and costs. A cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted was used to establish if a policy was cost-effective.FindingsIn our model, all policies involving the introduction of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine were predicted to lead to an increased proportion of people with HIV on ART, increased viral load suppression, and decreased AIDS-related mortality, with lesser benefits in people with a recently measured viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL. Its introduction is also predicted to lead to increases in resistance to integrase inhibitors and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors if introduced in all people with HIV on ART or in those with a recently measured viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL, but to a lesser extent if introduced in people with more than 1000 copies per mL due to concentration of its use in people less adherent to oral therapy. Consistent with the effect on AIDS-related mortality, all approaches to the introduction of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine are predicted to avert DALYs. Assuming a cost of $120 per person per year, use of this regimen in people with a recently measured viral load of more than 1000 copies per mL was borderline cost-effective (median cost per DALY averted across setting scenarios $404). The other approaches considered for its use are unlikely to be cost-effective unless the cost per year of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine is considerably reduced.InterpretationOur modelling suggests that injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine offers potential benefits; however, to be a cost-effective option, its introduction might need to be carefully targeted to individuals with HIV who might otherwise have suboptimal adherence to ART. As data accumulate from trials and implementation studies, such findings can be incorporated into the model to better inform on the full consequences of policy alternatives.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, including through the HIV Modelling Consortium (OPP1191655).
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