The detection of the epidemic phase of COVID-19 and the timing of social distancing policies in Korea.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Observing cumulative and new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19, disease control authorities respond to a surge in cases with social distancing measures or economic lockdown. The question in this article is whether we can gather more useful information from a readily available time series data set of day-to-day changes in confirmed cases of COVID-19.

Study design

Time-series data analysis was done using a hidden Markov model.

Methods

Day-to-day differences in confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Korea from February 19, 2020, to July 13, 2021, were modeled via a hidden Markov model. The results from the model were compared with the effective reproduction number and the Korean government's response.

Results

The model reports that Korea was in an epidemic phas

SUBMITTER: Kim W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8520860 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature