Dataset Information

Prospective Evaluation over 15 Years of Six Breast Cancer Risk Models.

ABSTRACT: Prospective validation of risk models is needed to assess their clinical utility, particularly over the longer term. We evaluated the performance of six commonly used breast cancer risk models (IBIS, BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, BRCAPRO-BCRAT, BCRAT, and iCARE-lit). 15-year risk scores were estimated using lifestyle factors and family history measures from 7608 women in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study who were aged 50-65 years and unaffected at commencement of follow-up two (conducted in 2003-2007), of whom 351 subsequently developed breast cancer. Risk discrimination was assessed using the C-statistic and calibration using the expected/observed number of incident cases across the spectrum of risk by age group (50-54, 55-59, 60-65 years) and family history of breast cancer. C-statistics were higher for BOADICEA (0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.62) and IBIS (0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.61) than the other models (p-difference ≤ 0.04). No model except BOADICEA calibrated well across the spectrum of 15-year risk (p-value < 0.03). The performance of BOADICEA and IBIS was similar across age groups and for women with or without a family history. For middle-aged Australian women, BOADICEA and IBIS had the highest discriminatory accuracy of the six risk models, but apart from BOADICEA, no model was well-calibrated across the risk spectrum.

SUBMITTER: Li SX

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8534072 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prospective Evaluation over 15 Years of Six Breast Cancer Risk Models.

Li Sherly X SX Milne Roger L RL Nguyen-Dumont Tú T English Dallas R DR Giles Graham G GG Southey Melissa C MC Antoniou Antonis C AC Lee Andrew A Winship Ingrid I Hopper John L JL Terry Mary Beth MB MacInnis Robert J RJ

Cancers 20211016 20

Prospective validation of risk models is needed to assess their clinical utility, particularly over the longer term. We evaluated the performance of six commonly used breast cancer risk models (IBIS, BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, BRCAPRO-BCRAT, BCRAT, and iCARE-lit). 15-year risk scores were estimated using lifestyle factors and family history measures from 7608 women in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study who were aged 50-65 years and unaffected at commencement of follow-up two (conducted in 2003-200 ...[more]

PMID: 34680343

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Project description:Background:Parity is widely recognized as protective for breast cancer, but breast cancer risk may be increased shortly after childbirth. Whether this risk varies with breastfeeding, family history of breast cancer, or specific tumor subtype has rarely been evaluated. Objective:To characterize breast cancer risk in relation to recent childbirth. Design:Pooled analysis of individual-level data from 15 prospective cohort studies. Setting:The international Premenopausal Breast Cancer Collaborative Group. Participants:Women younger than 55 years. Measurements:During 9.6 million person-years of follow-up, 18 826 incident cases of breast cancer were diagnosed. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for breast cancer were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression. Results:Compared with nulliparous women, parous women had an HR for breast cancer that peaked about 5 years after birth (HR, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.63 to 1.99]) before decreasing to 0.77 (CI, 0.67 to 0.88) after 34 years. The association crossed over from positive to negative about 24 years after birth. The overall pattern was driven by estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer; no crossover was seen for ER-negative cancer. Increases in breast cancer risk after childbirth were pronounced when combined with a family history of breast cancer and were greater for women who were older at first birth or who had more births. Breastfeeding did not modify overall risk patterns. Limitations:Breast cancer diagnoses during pregnancy were not uniformly distinguishable from early postpartum diagnoses. Data on human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) oncogene overexpression were limited. Conclusion:Compared with nulliparous women, parous women have an increased risk for breast cancer for more than 20 years after childbirth. Health care providers should consider recent childbirth a risk factor for breast cancer in young women. Primary Funding Source:The Avon Foundation, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Breast Cancer Now and the UK National Health Service, and the Institute of Cancer Research.

Project description:Plasma estrogen and androgen levels are positively associated with postmenopausal breast cancer risk, but how long a single blood measurement can predict risk and whether the associations vary by tumor hormone receptor status remain unclear. We conducted nested case-control analyses within the Nurses' Health Study. Blood samples were collected in 1989-1990 and again in 2000-2002. Among postmenopausal women not using postmenopausal hormones at blood collection, 707 cases were diagnosed through June 2010, with two matched controls per case. We used unconditional logistic regression analyses to estimate the relative risks controlling for other breast cancer risk factors. The intra-class correlation coefficients for two blood measurements collected 10 years apart ranged from 0.54 (dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, DHEAS) to 0.74 (sex hormone-binding globulin, SHBG). Overall, women in the top (vs. bottom) 25 % of levels of estradiol, free estradiol, testosterone, free testosterone, and DHEAS were at a 50-110 % higher risk of breast cancer (p (trend) < 0.001). SHBG was inversely associated with risk (p (trend) = 0.004). RRs were similar when comparing cases diagnosed 1-10 versus 11-20 years (or 16-20 years) after blood collection (p (interaction) > 0.2). Except for DHEAS, the associations varied significantly by hormone receptor status (p (heterogeneity) ? 0.02). For example, the RRs (95 % CIs) comparing the highest versus lowest quartile were 2.8 (2.0-4.0; p (trend) < 0.001) for ER +/PR + tumors versus 1.1 (0.6-2.1; p (trend) = 0.98) for ER-/PR- tumors for estradiol, and 1.8 (1.3-2.5; p (trend) < 0.001) versus 0.6 (0.3-1.2; p (trend) = 0.35) for testosterone. One measure of circulating sex hormones in postmenopausal women can predict risk of hormone receptor positive breast cancer for up to 16-20 years.

Dataset Information

Prospective Evaluation over 15 Years of Six Breast Cancer Risk Models.

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Prospective Evaluation over 15 Years of Six Breast Cancer Risk Models.

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