The impact of metro-based underground logistics system on city logistics performance under COVID-19 epidemic: A case study of Wuhan, China.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Xu Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8556189 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The outbreak of an epidemic disease may pose significant treats to human beings and may further lead to a global crisis. In order to control the spread of an epidemic, the effective management of rapidly increased medical waste through establishing a temporary reverse logistics system is of vital importance. However, no research has been conducted with the focus on the design of an epidemic reverse logistics network for dealing with medical waste during epidemic outbreaks, which, if improperly treated, may accelerate disease spread and pose a significant risk for both medical staffs and patients. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel multi-objective multi-period mixed integer program for reverse logistics network design in epidemic outbreaks, which aims at determining the best locations of temporary facilities and the transportation strategies for effective management of the exponentially increased medical waste within a very short period. The application of the model is illustrated with a case study based on the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China. Even though the uncertainty of the future COVID-19 spread tendency is very high at the time of this research, several general policy recommendations can still be obtained based on computational experiments and quantitative analyses. Among other insights, the results suggest installing temporary incinerators may be an effective solution for managing the tremendous increase of medical waste during the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, but the location selection of these temporary incinerators is of significant importance. Due to the limitation on available data and knowledge at present stage, more real-world information are needed to assess the effectiveness of the current solution.
| S-EPMC7084373 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundJapanese encephalitis (JE) was once epidemic in most areas of China, including Wuhan, a city located in the central part of China. The incidence of JE dramatically decreased due to nationwide immunization with the live attenuated JE virus (JEV) vaccine, and no JE cases were reported during 2005-2008 in Wuhan. In 2009 and 2010, 31 JE cases reoccurred in this area. In this study, we investigated the causes of JE recurrence.Methods and findingsAll JE cases were laboratory-confirmed by detecting the JEV-specific IgM antibody with an IgM-capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). All patients were children between 2 months and 9 years of age with a median age of 2 years. Of the 31 cases, 9 had received one or two doses of the JEV vaccine, 11 had not been immunized previously with the JEV vaccine, and 11 had an unclear immunization history. Through reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis, two new strains of JEV were isolated from Culex tritaeniorhynchus and identified as genotype 1 JEV, rather than genotype 3, which circulated in this area previously.ConclusionsVaccine failure or missed vaccination may have caused JE recurrence. Local centers for disease control and prevention need to improve immunization coverage, and the efficacy of the JE vaccine needs to be reevaluated in a population at risk for disease.
| S-EPMC3541373 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo design models of the spread of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and the effect of Fangcang shelter hospitals (rapidly-built temporary hospitals) on the control of the epidemic.MethodsWe used data on daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, recovered cases and deaths from the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to build compartmental models for three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic. We incorporated the hospital-bed capacity of both designated and Fangcang shelter hospitals. We used the models to assess the success of the strategy adopted in Wuhan to control the COVID-19 epidemic.FindingsBased on the 13 348 Fangcang shelter hospitals beds used in practice, our models show that if the Fangcang shelter hospitals had been opened on 6 February (a day after their actual opening), the total number of COVID-19 cases would have reached 7 413 798 (instead of 50 844) with 1 396 017 deaths (instead of 5003), and the epidemic would have lasted for 179 days (instead of 71).ConclusionWhile the designated hospitals saved lives of patients with severe COVID-19, it was the increased hospital-bed capacity of the large number of Fangcang shelter hospitals that helped slow and eventually stop the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan. Given the current global pandemic of COVID-19, our study suggests that increasing hospital-bed capacity, especially through temporary hospitals such as Fangcang shelter hospitals, to isolate groups of people with mild symptoms within an affected region could help curb and eventually stop COVID-19 outbreaks in communities where effective household isolation is not possible.
| S-EPMC7716094 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The metro is one of the more representative urban transportation systems of Mexico City, and it transports approximately 4.5 million commuters every day. Large crowds promote the exchange of microbes between humans. In this study, we determined the bacterial diversity profile of the Mexico City metro by massive sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. We identified a total of 50,174 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) and 1058 genera. The metro microbiome was dominated by the phylum Actinobacteria and by the genera Cutibacterium (15%) (C. acnes 13%), Corynebacterium (13%), Streptococcus (9%), and Staphylococcus (5%) (S. epidermidis; 4%), reflecting the microbe composition of healthy human skin. The metro likely microbial sources were skin, dust, saliva, and vaginal, with no fecal contribution detected. A total of 420 bacterial genera were universal to the twelve metro lines tested, and those genera contributed to 99.10% of the abundance. The annual 1.6 billion ridership makes this public transport a main hub for microbe-host-environment interactions. Finally, this study shows that the microbial composition of the Mexico City metro comes from a mixture of environmental and human sources and that commuters are exposed to healthy composition of the human microbiota.
| S-EPMC7260218 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The article aims to estimate and forecast the transmissibility of shigellosis and explore the association of meteorological factors with shigellosis. The mathematical model named Susceptible–Exposed–Symptomatic/Asymptomatic–Recovered–Water/Food (SEIARW) was used to explore the feature of shigellosis transmission based on the data of Wuhan City, China, from 2005 to 2017. The study applied effective reproduction number (Reff) to estimate the transmissibility. Daily meteorological data from 2008 to 2017 were used to determine Spearman's correlation with reported new cases and Reff. The SEIARW model fit the data well (χ2 = 0.00046, p > 0.999). The simulation results showed that the reservoir-to-person transmission of the shigellosis route has been interrupted. The Reff would be reduced to a transmission threshold of 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82–1.19) in 2035. Reducing the infectious period to 11.25 days would also decrease the value of Reff to 0.99. There was a significant correlation between new cases of shigellosis and atmospheric pressure, temperature, wind speed and sun hours per day. The correlation coefficients, although statistically significant, were very low (<0.3). In Wuhan, China, the main transmission pattern of shigellosis is person-to-person. Meteorological factors, especially daily atmospheric pressure and temperature, may influence the epidemic of shigellosis.
| S-EPMC8697311 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Environmental assessment of eutrophication or heavy metals in urban lakes is an important reference for identifying the pollution degree and formulating pollution prevention strategies. At present, the most research on lake health states is often evaluated from a single angle for toxic metals pollution or eutrophication using the standard comparison method for both, the comprehensive trophic level index (TLI), and the health risk assessment for toxic metals. Moreover, the above deterministic methods probably lead to biased or unreliable assessment due to the randomness and fuzziness in environment system caused by natural change and human activities. In this paper, a fuzzy comprehensive lake health assessment method (FCLHAM) was established to evaluate comprehensive lake health states more comprehensively and accurately, which integrates quantitative eutrophication and health risk considerations. To test and verify FCLHAM, 21 lakes, scientifically selected from the total 143 lakes in the Chinese Wuhan city as study case, were investigated and analyzed for their state of eutrophication and the health risk posed by heavy metals. According to the FCLHAM, the average comprehensive lake health state decreased in the sequence of L20 (considerate risk level) > L1⁻L17, L19, L21 (moderate risk level) > L18 (low risk level). Based on the result, lakes were classified into three categories: general management (L18), enhanced management (L1⁻L17, L19, L21), and priority management (L20). If the 143 lakes in Wuhan were classified by the "area-region-function" classification, they would be assigned to the same category as the representative lakes of the same type. At this point, we will attribute all of Wuhan's lakes to the three types. Depending on the characteristics of each type, a targeted approach to different types of management for each type of lake is a more efficient way to manage many of Wuhan's lakes. This management mode also serves as an effective reference for the environmental management of urban lakes both at home and abroad. In other words, according to the FCLHAM, a hierarchical management system based on lake characteristics classification was obtained.
| S-EPMC6313550 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundThe ongoing new coronavirus pneumonia (Corona Virus Disease 2019, COVID-19) outbreak is spreading in China, but it has not yet reached its peak. Five million people emigrated from Wuhan before lockdown, potentially representing a source of virus infection. Determining case distribution and its correlation with population emigration from Wuhan in the early stage of the epidemic is of great importance for early warning and for the prevention of future outbreaks.MethodsThe official case report on the COVID-19 epidemic was collected as of January 30, 2020. Time and location information on COVID-19 cases was extracted and analyzed using ArcGIS and WinBUGS software. Data on population migration from Wuhan city and Hubei province were extracted from Baidu Qianxi, and their correlation with the number of cases was analyzed.ResultsThe COVID-19 confirmed and death cases in Hubei province accounted for 59.91% (5806/9692) and 95.77% (204/213) of the total cases in China, respectively. Hot spot provinces included Sichuan and Yunnan, which are adjacent to Hubei. The time risk of Hubei province on the following day was 1.960 times that on the previous day. The number of cases in some cities was relatively low, but the time risk appeared to be continuously rising. The correlation coefficient between the provincial number of cases and emigration from Wuhan was up to 0.943. The lockdown of 17 cities in Hubei province and the implementation of nationwide control measures efficiently prevented an exponential growth in the number of cases.ConclusionsThe population that emigrated from Wuhan was the main infection source in other cities and provinces. Some cities with a low number of cases showed a rapid increase in case load. Owing to the upcoming Spring Festival return wave, understanding the risk trends in different regions is crucial to ensure preparedness at both the individual and organization levels and to prevent new outbreaks.
| S-EPMC7147281 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundReaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China.MethodsWe collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. The reported cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, ≤ 14 years old; group 2, 15 to 44 years old; group 3, 44 to 64 years old; and group 4, ≥ 65 years old. An age-specific susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed model was developed to estimate the transmissibility and simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was used to estimate the transmission interaction in different age groups.ResultsA total of 47 722 new cases were reported in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. Before the travel ban of Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility was observed among age group 2 (Reff = 4.28), followed by group 2 to 3 (Reff = 2.61), and group 2 to 4 (Reff = 1.69). China should vaccinate at least 85% of the total population to interrupt transmission. The priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate 5% to 8% of individuals in age group 2 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% of age group 2), followed by 10% of age group 3 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% age group 3). However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing the disease severity identified individuals ≥ 65 years old as a priority group, followed by those 45-64 years old.ConclusionsApproximately 85% of the total population (nearly 1.2 billion people) should be vaccinated to build an immune barrier in China to safely consider removing border restrictions. Based on these results, we concluded that 90% of adults aged 15-64 years should first be vaccinated to prevent transmission in China.
| S-EPMC8712277 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe high risks for childhood respiratory diseases are associated with exposure to ambient air pollution. However, there are few studies that have explored the association between air pollution exposure and respiratory diseases among young children (particularly aged 0-2 years) based on the entire population in a megalopolis.MethodsDaily hospital admission records were obtained from 54 municipal hospitals in Wuhan city, China. We included all children (aged 0-2 years) hospitalized with respiratory diseases between January 2017 and December 2018. Individual air pollution exposure assessment was used in Land Use Regression model and inverse distance weighted. Case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression models were adopted to estimate the hospitalization risk associated with air pollutants.ResultsWe identified 62,425 hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases, of which 36,295 were pneumonia. Particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were significantly associated with respiratory diseases and pneumonia. ORs of pneumonia were 1.0179 (95% CI 1.0097-1.0260) for PM2.5 and 1.0131 (95% CI 1.0042-1.0220) for NO2 at lag 0-7 days. Subgroup analysis suggested that NO2, Ozone (O3) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) only showed effects on pneumonia hospitalizations on male patients, but PM2.5 had effects on patients of both genders. Except O3, all pollutants were strongly associated with pneumonia in cold season. In addition, children who aged elder months and who were in central urban areas had a higher hospitalization risk.ConclusionsAir pollution is associated with higher hospitalization risk for respiratory diseases, especially pneumonia, among young children, and the risk is related to gender, month age, season and residential location.
| S-EPMC9042971 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInformation disclosure is a top priority for official responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The timely and standardized information published by authorities as a response to the crisis can better inform the public and enable better preparations for the pandemic; however, there is limited evidence of any systematic analyses of the disclosed epidemic information. This in turn has important implications for risk communication.ObjectiveThis study aimed to describe and compare the officially released content regarding local epidemic situations as well as analyze the characteristics of information disclosure through local communication in major cities in China.MethodsThe 31 capital cities in mainland China were included in this city-level observational study. Data were retrieved from local municipalities and health commission websites as of March 18, 2020. A checklist was employed as a rapid qualitative assessment tool to analyze the information disclosure performance of each city. Descriptive analyses and data visualizations were produced to present and compare the comparative performances of the cities.ResultsIn total, 29 of 31 cities (93.5%) established specific COVID-19 webpages to disclose information. Among them, 12 of the city webpages were added to their corresponding municipal websites. A majority of the cities (21/31, 67.7%) published their first cases of infection in a timely manner on the actual day of confirmation. Regarding the information disclosures highlighted on the websites, news updates from local media or press briefings were the most prevalent (28/29, 96.6%), followed by epidemic surveillance (25/29, 86.2%), and advice for the public (25/29, 86.2%). Clarifications of misinformation and frequently asked questions were largely overlooked as only 2 cities provided this valuable information. The median daily update frequency of epidemic surveillance summaries was 1.2 times per day (IQR 1.0-1.3 times), and the majority of these summaries (18/25, 72.0%) also provided detailed information regarding confirmed cases. The reporting of key indicators in the epidemic surveillance summaries, as well as critical facts included in the confirmed case reports, varied substantially between cities. In general, the best performance in terms of timely reporting and the transparency of information disclosures were observed in the municipalities directly administered by the central government compared to the other cities.ConclusionsTimely and effective efforts to disclose information related to the COVID-19 epidemic have been made in major cities in China. Continued improvements to local authority reporting will contribute to more effective public communication and efficient public health research responses. The development of protocols and the standardization of epidemic message templates-as well as the use of uniform operating procedures to provide regular information updates-should be prioritized to ensure a coordinated national response.
| S-EPMC7473703 | biostudies-literature