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Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study.

ABSTRACT: Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was observed in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a religious sect in South Korea. The index case was confirmed on February 18, 2020 in Daegu City, and within two weeks, 3081 connected cases were identified. Doubling times during these initial stages (i.e., February 18 - March 2) of the outbreak were less than 2 days. A stochastic model fitted to the time series of confirmed cases suggests that the basic reproduction number (R₀) of COVID-19 was 8.5 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6.3, 10.9] among the church members, whereas (R₀ = 1.9 [95% CrI: 0.4, 4.4]) in the rest of the population of Daegu City. The model also suggests that there were already 4 [95% CrI: 2, 11] undetected cases of COVID-19 on February 7 when the index case reportedly presented symptoms. The Shincheonji Church cluster is likely to be emblematic of other outbreak-prone populations where R₀ of COVID-19 is higher. Understanding and subsequently limiting the risk of transmission in such high-risk places is key to effective control.

SUBMITTER: Kim JH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8559423 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study.

Kim Jong-Hoon JH Lee Hyojung H Won Yong Sul YS Son Woo-Sik WS Im Justin J

Epidemics 20211101

Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was observed in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a religious sect in South Korea. The index case was confirmed on February 18, 2020 in Daegu City, and within two weeks, 3081 connected cases were identified. Doubling times during these initial stages (i.e., February 18 - March 2) of the outbreak were less than 2 days. A stochastic model fitted to the time series of confirmed cases suggests that the basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>) ...[more]

PMID: 34742106

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Project description:AbstractSeveral studies reported that aspirin can potentially help prevent infection and serious complications of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but no study has elucidated a definitive association between aspirin and COVID-19. This study aims to investigate the association between aspirin and COVID-19.This case-control study used demographic, clinical, and health screening laboratory test data collected from the National Health Insurance Service database. Patients who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection until June 4, 2020, were matched with control patients using propensity score matching according to their SARS-CoV-2 status, the composite of complications, and death. The composite of complications included intensive care unit admission, use of vasopressors, high-flow oxygen therapy, renal replacement therapy, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and death. Exposure to aspirin was defined as having a prescription for aspirin for more than 14 days, including the index date. After matching, multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression analysis was performed. To confirm the robustness of this study, we used 2 study groups, 3 propensity score matching methods, and 3 models for conditional logistic regression analyses.The crude odds ratio and 95% confidence interval for SARS-CoV-2 infection between the groups without and with exposure to aspirin were 1.21 (1.04-1.41), but the adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) were not significant. There was no association between aspirin exposure and COVID-19 status. Multiple statistical analyses, including subgroup analysis, revealed consistent results. Furthermore, the results of analysis for complications and death were not significant. Aspirin exposure was not associated with COVID-19-related complications and mortality in COVID-19 patients.In this nationwide population-based case-control study, aspirin use was not associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or related complications. With several ongoing randomized controlled trials of aspirin in COVID-19 patients, more studies would be able to confirm the effectiveness of aspirin in COVID-19.

Project description:BackgroundThe absence of effective antiviral medications and vaccines increased the focus on non-pharmaceutical preventive behaviors for mitigating against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. To examine the current status of non-pharmaceutical preventive behaviors practiced during the COVID-19 outbreak and factors affecting behavioral activities, we compared to the 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in Korea.MethodsThis was a serial cross-sectional population-based study in Korea with four surveys conducted on June 2 and 25, 2015 (MERS-CoV surveys), and February 4, and April 2, 2020 (COVID-19 surveys). Of 25,711 participants selected using random digit dialing numbers, 4,011 participants (aged ≥ 18 years) were successfully interviewed, for the 2020 COVID-19 (n = 2,002) and 2015 MERS-CoV (n = 2,009) epidemics were included. Participants were selected post-stratification by sex, age, and province. The total number of weighted cases in this survey equaled the total number of unweighted cases at the national level. We measured the levels of preventive behaviors (social distancing [avoiding physical contact with others]), and practicing transmission-reducing behaviors such as wearing face mask and handwashing.ResultsBetween the surveys, respondents who reported practicing social distancing increased from 41.9%-58.2% (MERS-CoV) to 83.4%-92.3% (COVID-19). The response rate for the four surveys ranged between 13.7% and 17.7%. Practicing transmission-reducing behaviors (wearing face masks and handwashing) at least once during COVID-19 (78.8%, 80.2%) also increased compared to that during MERS-CoV (15.5%, 60.3%). The higher affective risk perception groups were more likely to practice transmission-reducing measures (adjusted odds ratio, 3.24-4.81; 95 confidence interval, 1.76-6.96) during both COVID-19 and MERS-CoV.ConclusionThe study findings suggest markedly increased proportions of non-pharmaceutical behavioral practices evenly across all subgroups during the two different novel virus outbreaks in Korea. Strategic interventions are needed to attempt based on preventive behavior works.

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Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study.

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Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study.

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