Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: A mathematical modeling study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kim JH
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8559423 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundNonpharmaceutical intervention strategy is significantly important to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. One of the interventions implemented by the government is a school closure. The Ministry of Education decided to postpone the school opening from March 2 to April 6 to minimize epidemic size. We aimed to quantify the school closure effect on the COVID-19 epidemic.MethodsThe potential effects of school opening were measured using a mathematical model considering two age groups: children (aged 19 years and younger) and adults (aged over 19). Based on susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model, isolation and behavior-changed susceptible individuals are additionally considered. The transmission parameters were estimated from the laboratory confirmed data reported by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from February 16 to March 22. The model was extended with estimated parameters and estimated the expected number of confirmed cases as the transmission rate increased after school opening.ResultsAssuming the transmission rate between children group would be increasing 10 fold after the schools open, approximately additional 60 cases are expected to occur from March 2 to March 9, and approximately additional 100 children cases are expected from March 9 to March 23. After March 23, the number of expected cases for children is 28.4 for 7 days and 33.6 for 14 days.ConclusionThe simulation results show that the government could reduce at least 200 cases, with two announcements by the Ministry of education. After March 23, although the possibility of massive transmission in the children's age group is lower, group transmission is possible to occur.
| S-EPMC7131906 | biostudies-literature
Project description:African swine fever (ASF) is a substantial concern for global food production and security. However, lack of epidemiologic data in affected areas has limited the knowledge of the main drivers of ASF virus (ASFV) transmission. To assess the role of vehicle movements and wild boar populations in spreading ASFV to pig farms in South Korea, we combined data generated by ASF surveillance on pig farms and of wild boars with nationwide global positioning system-based tracking data for vehicles involved in farming activities. Vehicle movements from infected premises were associated with a higher probability of ASFV incursion into a farm than was geographic proximity to ASFV-infected wild boar populations. Although ASFV can spill over from infected wild boars into domestic pigs, vehicles played a substantial role in spreading infection between farms, despite rapid on-farm detection and culling. This finding highlights the need for interventions targeting farm-to-farm and wildlife-to-farm interfaces.
| S-EPMC8237864 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEarly and accurate detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is critical to prevent spread of the infection. Understanding of the antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is insufficient, particularly in relation to those whose responses persist for more than 1 month after the onset of symptoms. We conducted a SARS-CoV-2 antibody test to identify factors affecting the serological response and to evaluate its diagnostic utility in patients with COVID-19.Methods and findingWe collected 1,048 residual serum samples from 396 patients with COVID-19 confirmed by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for SARS-CoV-2. The samples had been used for routine admission tests in six healthcare institutions in Daegu. Antibody to SARS-CoV-2 was analyzed and the cutoff index (COI) was calculated for quantitative analysis. The patients' information was reviewed to evaluate the relationship between antibody positivity and clinical characteristics. The anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity rate was 85% and the average COI was 24·3. The positivity rate and COI increased with time elapsed since symptom onset. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody persisted for at least 13 weeks after symptom onset at a high COI. There was a significant difference in anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity rate between patients with and without symptoms, but not according to sex or disease course. The descending COI pattern at weeks 1 to 5 after symptom onset was significantly more frequent in patients who died than in those who recovered.ConclusionsAnti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody persisted for at least 13 weeks at a high COI in patients with COVID-19. A decreasing COI pattern up to fifth week may be associated with a poor prognosis of COVID-19. As new treatments and vaccines are introduced, it is important to monitor continuously the usefulness of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays.
| S-EPMC8775192 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMultiple prevention measures have the possibility of impacting HIV incidence in South Korea, including early diagnosis, early treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We investigated how each of these interventions could impact the local HIV epidemic, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM), who have become the major risk group in South Korea. A mathematical model was used to estimate the effects of each these interventions on the HIV epidemic in South Korea over the next 40 years, as compared to the current situation.MethodsWe constructed a mathematical model of HIV infection among MSM in South Korea, dividing the MSM population into seven groups, and simulated the effects of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), early diagnosis, PrEP, and combination interventions on the incidence and prevalence of HIV infection, as compared to the current situation that would be expected without any new prevention measures.ResultsOverall, the model suggested that the most effective prevention measure would be PrEP. Even though PrEP effectiveness could be lessened by increased unsafe sex behavior, PrEP use was still more beneficial than the current situation. In the model, early diagnosis of HIV infection was also effectively decreased HIV incidence. However, early ART did not show considerable effectiveness. As expected, it would be most effective if all interventions (PrEP, early diagnosis and early treatment) were implemented together.ConclusionsThis model suggests that PrEP and early diagnosis could be a very effective way to reduce HIV incidence in South Korea among MSM.
| S-EPMC3963840 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEarly in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there was a concern over possible increase in antibiotic use due to coinfections among COVID-19 patients in the community. Here, we evaluate the changes in nationwide use of broad-spectrum antibiotics during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea.MethodsWe obtained national reimbursement data on the prescription of antibiotics, including penicillin with β-lactamase inhibitors, cephalosporins, fluoroquinolones, and macrolides. We examined the number of antibiotic prescriptions compared with the previous 3 years in the same period from August to July. To quantify the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on antibiotic use, we developed a regression model adjusting for changes of viral acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs), which are an important factor driving antibiotic use.ResultsDuring the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea, the broad-spectrum antibiotic use dropped by 15%-55% compared to the previous 3 years. Overall reduction in antibiotic use adjusting for ARTIs was estimated to be 14%-30%, with a larger impact in children.ConclusionsOur study found that broad-spectrum antibiotic use was substantially reduced during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea. This reduction can be in part due to reduced ARTIs as a result of stringent public health interventions including social distancing measures.
| S-EPMC8083342 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AbstractSeveral studies reported that aspirin can potentially help prevent infection and serious complications of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but no study has elucidated a definitive association between aspirin and COVID-19. This study aims to investigate the association between aspirin and COVID-19.This case-control study used demographic, clinical, and health screening laboratory test data collected from the National Health Insurance Service database. Patients who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection until June 4, 2020, were matched with control patients using propensity score matching according to their SARS-CoV-2 status, the composite of complications, and death. The composite of complications included intensive care unit admission, use of vasopressors, high-flow oxygen therapy, renal replacement therapy, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and death. Exposure to aspirin was defined as having a prescription for aspirin for more than 14 days, including the index date. After matching, multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression analysis was performed. To confirm the robustness of this study, we used 2 study groups, 3 propensity score matching methods, and 3 models for conditional logistic regression analyses.The crude odds ratio and 95% confidence interval for SARS-CoV-2 infection between the groups without and with exposure to aspirin were 1.21 (1.04-1.41), but the adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) were not significant. There was no association between aspirin exposure and COVID-19 status. Multiple statistical analyses, including subgroup analysis, revealed consistent results. Furthermore, the results of analysis for complications and death were not significant. Aspirin exposure was not associated with COVID-19-related complications and mortality in COVID-19 patients.In this nationwide population-based case-control study, aspirin use was not associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection or related complications. With several ongoing randomized controlled trials of aspirin in COVID-19 patients, more studies would be able to confirm the effectiveness of aspirin in COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8322539 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe absence of effective antiviral medications and vaccines increased the focus on non-pharmaceutical preventive behaviors for mitigating against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. To examine the current status of non-pharmaceutical preventive behaviors practiced during the COVID-19 outbreak and factors affecting behavioral activities, we compared to the 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in Korea.MethodsThis was a serial cross-sectional population-based study in Korea with four surveys conducted on June 2 and 25, 2015 (MERS-CoV surveys), and February 4, and April 2, 2020 (COVID-19 surveys). Of 25,711 participants selected using random digit dialing numbers, 4,011 participants (aged ≥ 18 years) were successfully interviewed, for the 2020 COVID-19 (n = 2,002) and 2015 MERS-CoV (n = 2,009) epidemics were included. Participants were selected post-stratification by sex, age, and province. The total number of weighted cases in this survey equaled the total number of unweighted cases at the national level. We measured the levels of preventive behaviors (social distancing [avoiding physical contact with others]), and practicing transmission-reducing behaviors such as wearing face mask and handwashing.ResultsBetween the surveys, respondents who reported practicing social distancing increased from 41.9%-58.2% (MERS-CoV) to 83.4%-92.3% (COVID-19). The response rate for the four surveys ranged between 13.7% and 17.7%. Practicing transmission-reducing behaviors (wearing face masks and handwashing) at least once during COVID-19 (78.8%, 80.2%) also increased compared to that during MERS-CoV (15.5%, 60.3%). The higher affective risk perception groups were more likely to practice transmission-reducing measures (adjusted odds ratio, 3.24-4.81; 95 confidence interval, 1.76-6.96) during both COVID-19 and MERS-CoV.ConclusionThe study findings suggest markedly increased proportions of non-pharmaceutical behavioral practices evenly across all subgroups during the two different novel virus outbreaks in Korea. Strategic interventions are needed to attempt based on preventive behavior works.
| S-EPMC7295600 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We analyzed transmission of coronavirus disease outside of the Daegu-Gyeongsangbuk provincial region in South Korea. We estimated that nonpharmaceutical measures reduced transmissibility by a maximum of 34% without resorting to a strict lockdown strategy. To optimize epidemic control, continuous efforts to monitor the transmissibility are needed.
| S-EPMC7510738 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: The psychological and behavioral responses during the early stage of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South Korea were investigated to guide the public as full and active participants of public health emergency preparedness (PHEP), which is essential to improving resilience and reducing the population's fundamental vulnerability. Methods: Data were collected through an online survey four weeks after the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) confirmed the first case in South Korea; 973 subjects were included in the analysis. Results: Respondents' perceived risk of COVID-19 infection; the majority of respondents reported that their perceived chance of infection was "neither high nor low" (51.3%). The average perceived severity score was higher than perceived susceptibility; 48.6 % reported that the severity would be "high," while 19.9% reported "very high." Many respondents reported taking precautions, 67.8% reported always practicing hand hygiene, and 63.2% reported always wearing a facial mask when outside. Approximately 50% reported postponing or canceling social events, and 41.5% were avoiding crowded places. Practicing precautionary behaviors associated strongly with perceived risk and response efficacy of the behavior. Conclusions: Our study confirmed the significance of the psychological responses, which associated with behavioral responses and significantly influenced the public's level of public health emergency preparedness regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. This result has consequences not only for implementing public health strategies for the pandemic but also for understanding future emerging infectious diseases.
| S-EPMC7246607 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background. Since the emergence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, more than 1,300 laboratory confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infections have been reported in Asia, North Africa, and Europe by July 2015. The recent MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak in South Korea quickly became the second largest such outbreak with 186 total cases and 36 deaths in a little more than one month, second only to Saudi Arabia in country-specific number of reported cases. Methods. We use a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, to trace the temporal course of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak. We pinpoint its outbreak turning point and its transmissibility via basic reproduction number R 0 in order to ascertain the occurrence of this nosocomial outbreak and how it was quickly brought under control. Results. The estimated outbreak turning point of ti = 23.3 days (95% CI [22.6-24.0]), or 23-24 days after the onset date of the index case on May 11, pinpoints June 3-4 as the time of the turning point or the peak incidence for this outbreak by onset date. R 0 is estimated to range between 7.0 and 19.3. Discussion and Conclusion. The turning point of the South Korea MERS-CoV outbreak occurred around May 27-29, when control measures were quickly implemented after laboratory confirmation of the first cluster of nosocomial infections by the index patient. Furthermore, transmissibility of MERS-CoV in the South Korea outbreak was significantly higher than those reported from past MERS-CoV outbreaks in the Middle East, which is attributable to the nosocomial nature of this outbreak. Our estimate of R 0 for the South Korea MERS-CoV nosocomial outbreak further highlights the importance and the risk involved in cluster infections and superspreading events in crowded settings such as hospitals. Similar to the 2003 SARS epidemic, outbreaks of infectious diseases with low community transmissibility like MERS-CoV could still occur initially with large clusters of nosocomial infections, but can be quickly and effectively controlled with timely intervention measures.
| S-EPMC4690341 | biostudies-literature