Modeling the impact of vaccination strategies for nursing homes in the context of increased SARS-CoV-2 community transmission and variants
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Holmdahl I
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8562554 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Using an agent-based model, we examined the impact of community prevalence, the Delta variant, staff vaccination coverage, and booster vaccines for residents on outbreak dynamics in nursing homes. Increased staff coverage and high booster vaccine effectiveness leads to fewer infections, but cumulative incidence is highly dependent on community transmission.
| S-EPMC8807308 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE To estimate the costs of 3 MRSA transmission prevention scenarios compared with standard precautions in community-based nursing homes. DESIGN Cost analysis of data collected from a prospective, observational study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS Care activity data from 401 residents from 13 nursing homes in 2 states. METHODS Cost components included the quantities of gowns and gloves, time to don and doff gown and gloves, and unit costs. Unit costs were combined with information regarding the type and frequency of care provided over a 28-day observation period. For each scenario, the estimated costs associated with each type of care were summed across all residents to calculate an average cost and standard deviation for the full sample and for subgroups. RESULTS The average cost for standard precautions was $100 (standard deviation [SD], $77) per resident over a 28-day period. If gown and glove use for high-risk care was restricted to those with MRSA colonization or chronic skin breakdown, average costs increased to $137 (SD, $120) and $125 (SD, $109), respectively. If gowns and gloves were used for high-risk care for all residents in addition to standard precautions, the average cost per resident increased substantially to $223 (SD, $127). CONCLUSIONS The use of gowns and gloves for high-risk activities with all residents increased the estimated cost by 123% compared with standard precautions. This increase was ameliorated if specific subsets (eg, those with MRSA colonization or chronic skin breakdown) were targeted for gown and glove use for high-risk activities. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016;37:962-966.
| S-EPMC6269274 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNursing home residents and staff were included in the first phase of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States. Because the primary trial endpoint was vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic disease, there are limited data on the extent to which vaccines protect against SARS-CoV-2 infection and the ability to infect others (infectiousness). Assumptions about VE against infection and infectiousness have implications for changes to infection prevention guidance for vaccinated populations, including testing strategies.MethodsWe use a stochastic agent-based SEIR model of a nursing home to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We model three scenarios, varying VE against infection, infectiousness, and symptoms, to understand the expected impact of vaccination in nursing homes, increasing staff vaccination coverage, and different screening testing strategies under each scenario.ResultsIncreasing vaccination coverage in staff decreases total symptomatic cases in the nursing home (among staff and residents combined) in each VE scenario. In scenarios with 50% and 90% VE against infection and infectiousness, increasing staff coverage reduces symptomatic cases among residents. If vaccination only protects against symptoms, and asymptomatic cases remain infectious, increased staff coverage increases symptomatic cases among residents. However, this is outweighed by the reduction in symptomatic cases among staff. Higher frequency testing-more than once weekly-is needed to reduce total symptomatic cases if the vaccine has lower efficacy against infection and infectiousness, or only protects against symptoms.ConclusionsEncouraging staff vaccination is not only important for protecting staff, but might also reduce symptomatic cases in residents if a vaccine confers at least some protection against infection or infectiousness.
| S-EPMC8244782 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Nursing home residents and staff were included in the first phase of COVID-19 vaccination in the United States. Because the primary trial endpoint was vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic disease, there are limited data on the extent to which vaccines protect against SARS-CoV-2 infection and the ability to infect others (infectiousness). Assumptions about VE against infection and infectiousness have implications for possible changes to infection prevention guidance for vaccinated populations, including testing strategies. We use a stochastic agent-based SEIR model of a nursing home to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We model three scenarios, varying VE against infection, infectiousness, and symptoms, to understand the expected impact of vaccination in nursing homes, increasing staff vaccination coverage, and different screening testing strategies under each scenario. Increasing vaccination coverage in staff decreases total symptomatic cases in each scenario. When there is low VE against infection and infectiousness, increasing staff coverage reduces symptomatic cases among residents. If vaccination only protects against symptoms, but asymptomatic cases remain infectious, increased staff coverage increases symptomatic cases among residents through exposure to asymptomatic but infected staff. High frequency testing is needed to reduce total symptomatic cases if the vaccine has low efficacy against infection and infectiousness, or only protects against symptoms. Encouraging staff vaccination is not only important for protecting staff, but might also reduce symptomatic cases in residents if a vaccine confers at least some protection against infection or infectiousness. The extent of efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines against infection, infectiousness, or disease, impacts strategies for vaccination and testing in nursing homes. If vaccines confer some protection against infection or infectiousness, encouraging vaccination in staff may reduce symptomatic cases in residents.
| S-EPMC7941643 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic have disproportionately affected older adults and residents in nursing homes. Although emerging research has identified place-based risk factors for the general population, little research has been conducted for nursing home populations. This GIS-based spatial modeling study aimed to determine the association between nursing home-level metrics and county-level, place-based variables with COVID-19 confirmed cases in nursing homes across the United States. A cross-sectional research design linked data from Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, American Community Survey, the 2010 Census, and COVID-19 cases among the general population and nursing homes. Spatial cluster analysis identified specific regions with statistically higher COVID-19 cases and deaths among residents. Multivariate analysis identified risk factors at the nursing home level including, total count of fines, total staffing levels, and LPN staffing levels. County-level or place-based factors like per-capita income, average household size, population density, and minority composition were significant predictors of COVID-19 cases in the nursing home. These results provide a framework for examining further COVID-19 cases in nursing homes and highlight the need to include other community-level variables when considering risk of COVID-19 transmission and outbreaks in nursing homes.
| S-EPMC7446707 | biostudies-literature
Project description:As of 2 September 2021, United States nursing homes have reported >675,000 COVID-19 cases and >134,000 deaths according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). More than 205,000,000 persons in the United States had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine (62% of total population) as of 2 September 2021. We investigate the role of vaccination in controlling future COVID-19 outbreaks. We developed a stochastic, compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a 100-bed nursing home with a staff of 99 healthcare personnel (HCP) in a community of 20,000 people. We parameterized admission and discharge of residents in the model with CMS data, for a within-facility basic reproduction number (R0) of 3.5 and a community R0 of 2.5. The model also included: importation of COVID-19 from the community, isolation of SARS-CoV-2 positive residents, facility-wide adherence to personal protective equipment (PPE) use by HCP, and testing. We systematically varied coverage of mRNA vaccine among residents, HCP, and the community. Simulations were run for 6 months after the second dose in the facility, with results summarized over 1,000 simulations. Expected resident cases decreased as community vaccination increased, with large reductions at high HCP coverage. The probability of a COVID-19 outbreak was lower as well: at HCP vaccination coverage of 60%, probability of an outbreak was below 20% for community coverage of 50% or above. At high coverage, stopping asymptomatic screening and facility-wide testing yielded similar results. Results suggest that high coverage among HCP and in the community can prevent infections in residents. When vaccination is high in nursing homes, but not in their surrounding communities, asymptomatic and facility-wide testing remains necessary to prevent the spread of COVID-19. High adherence to PPE may increase the likelihood of containing future COVID-19 outbreaks if they occur.
| S-EPMC9013672 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Ebola epidemics constitute serious public health emergencies. Multiple vaccines are under development to prevent these epidemics and avoid the associated morbidity and mortality. Assessing the potential impact of these vaccines on morbidity and mortality of Ebola is essential for devising prevention strategies. A mean-field compartmental stochastic model was developed for this purpose and validated by simulating the 2014 Sierra Leone epidemic. We assessed the impacts of prophylactic vaccination of healthcare workers (HCW) both alone and in combination with the vaccination of the general population (entire susceptible population other than HCW). The model simulated 8,706 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 478-21,942) cases and 3,575 (95%CI: 179-9,031) deaths in Sierra Leone, in line with WHO-reported statistics for the 2014 epidemic (8,704 cases and 3,587 deaths). Relative to this base case, the model then estimated that prophylactic vaccination of only 10% of HCW will avert 12% (95% CI: 6%-14%) of overall cases and deaths, while vaccination of 30% of HCW will avert 34% of overall cases (95% CI: 30%-64%) and deaths (95% CI: 30%-65%). Prophylactic vaccination of 1% and 5% of the general population in addition to vaccinating 30% of HCW was estimated to result in reduction in cases by 44% (95% CI: 39%-61%) and 72% (95% CI: 68%-84%) respectively, and deaths by 45% (95% CI: 40%-61%) and 74% (95% CI: 70%-85%) respectively. Prophylactic vaccination of even small proportions of HCW is estimated to significantly reduce incidence of Ebola and associated mortality. The effect is greatly enhanced by the additional vaccination even of small percentages of the general population. These findings could be used to inform the planning of prevention strategies.
| S-EPMC7185698 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Due to security, access, and programmatic challenges in areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan, both countries continue to sustain indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission and threaten the success of global polio eradication and oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation. We fitted an existing differential-equation-based poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution model to Pakistan and Afghanistan using four subpopulations to characterize the well-vaccinated and undervaccinated subpopulations in each country. We explored retrospective and prospective scenarios for using inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization or supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). The undervaccinated subpopulations sustain the circulation of serotype 1 WPV and serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus. We find a moderate impact of past IPV use on polio incidence and population immunity to transmission mainly due to (1) the boosting effect of IPV for individuals with preexisting immunity from a live poliovirus infection and (2) the effect of IPV-only on oropharyngeal transmission for individuals without preexisting immunity from a live poliovirus infection. Future IPV use may similarly yield moderate benefits, particularly if access to undervaccinated subpopulations dramatically improves. However, OPV provides a much greater impact on transmission and the incremental benefit of IPV in addition to OPV remains limited. This study suggests that despite the moderate effect of using IPV in SIAs, using OPV in SIAs remains the most effective means to stop transmission, while limited IPV resources should prioritize IPV use in routine immunization.
| S-EPMC7879700 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Influenza vaccination remains the cornerstone of influenza prevention, yet national goals for nursing home residents and staff vaccination have not been met. Few studies have examined associations between facility and resident characteristics; employee processes, such as staff vaccination policies; and resident influenza vaccination. In this national survey of nursing homes, employee processes were not associated with resident influenza vaccination; however, various facility and resident characteristics were.
| S-EPMC5402757 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeOrganizational context is recognized as important for facilitating evidence-based practice and improving patient outcomes. Organizational context is a complex construct to measure and appropriate instruments that can quantify and measure context are needed. The aim of this study was to translate and cross-culturally adapt the Alberta Context Tool (ACT) to Norwegian, and to test the reliability and structural validity among registered nurses (RNs) and licenced practice nurses (LPNs) working in nursing homes.MethodsThis study was a validation study utilizing a cross-sectional design. The sample consisted of n = 956 healthcare personnel from 28 nursing homes from a municipality in Norway. In the first stage, the ACT was translated before being administered in 28 nursing homes. In the second stage, internal consistency and structural validity were explored using Cronbach's alpha and confirmatory factor analysis.ResultsA rigorous forward-and-back translation process was performed including a team of academics, experts, professional translators and the copyright holders, before an acceptable version of the ACT was piloted and finalized. The Norwegian version of the ACT showed good internal consistency with Chronbachs alpha above .75 for all concepts except for Formal interactions where the alpha was .69. Structural validity was acceptable for both RNs and LPNs with factors loadings more than .4 for most items.ConclusionsThe Norwegian version of the ACT is a valid measure of organizational context in Norwegian nursing homes among RNs and LPNs.
| S-EPMC8500415 | biostudies-literature