Disrupting transitions: Qualitatively modelling the impact of Covid-19 on UK food and mobility provision.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Boons F
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8565922 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), particularly mobility restrictions, are mainstay measures for the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. We evaluated the effects of Oman's mobility restriction strategies to highlight their efficacy in controlling the pandemic. Accessible national data of daily admissions and deaths were collected from 1 April 2020 to 22 May 2021. Google Community Mobility Report (CMR) data were downloaded for the same period. Among six CMR categories, three were used and reduced to one index-the community mobility index (CMI). We used a generalised linear model with a negative binomial distribution combined with a non-linear distributed lag model to investigate the short-term effects of CMI on the number of admitted PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, controlling for public holidays, day of the week, and Eid/Ramadan days. We demonstrated the feasibility of using CMRs in the evaluation and monitoring of different NPIs, particularly those related to movement restriction. The best movement restriction strategy was a curfew from 7 p.m. to 5 a.m. (level 3 of CMI = 8), which had a total reduction of 35% (95% confidence interval (CI); 25-44%) in new COVID-19 admissions in the following two weeks, and a fatality reduction in the following four weeks by 52% (95% CI; 11-75%). Evening lockdown significantly affected the course of the pandemic in Oman which lines up with similar studies throughout the world.
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Project description:The dataset presented in this paper contains information on 55 food support providers active in Greater Manchester during the COVID-19 crisis. Survey data were collected in June 2020 to obtain standardized information on the obstacles, needs, and prospects of the food support providers of the region immediately after the first COVID-19 wave. Although the sample is mainly composed of food banks, it also includes other providers such as food pantries, food clubs and meal providers. The data allows to draw some preliminary conclusions on the emergency response put in place and to highlight the most common difficulties faced by the organizations. To this purpose, the dataset contains variables that capture information related (i) to the impact of COVID-19 on organizational procedures and management, and (ii) to the characteristics of different food support provider before the COVID-19 outbreak.
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Project description:As the UK reopened after the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, crucial questions emerged around the role for ongoing interventions, including test-trace-isolate (TTI) strategies and mandatory masks. Here we assess the importance of masks in secondary schools by evaluating their impact over September 1-October 23, 2020. We show that, assuming TTI levels from August 2020 and no fundamental changes in the virus's transmissibility, adoption of masks in secondary schools would have reduced the predicted size of a second wave, but preventing it would have required 68% or 46% of those with symptoms to seek testing (assuming masks' effective coverage 15% or 30% respectively). With masks in community settings but not secondary schools, the required testing rates increase to 76% and 57%.
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Project description:To prevent the outbreak of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), many countries around the world went into lockdown and imposed unprecedented containment measures. These restrictions progressively produced changes to social behavior and global mobility patterns, evidently disrupting social and economic activities. Here, using maritime traffic data collected via a global network of Automatic Identification System (AIS) receivers, we analyze the effects that the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures had on the shipping industry, which accounts alone for more than 80% of the world trade. We rely on multiple data-driven maritime mobility indexes to quantitatively assess ship mobility in a given unit of time. The mobility analysis here presented has a worldwide extent and is based on the computation of: Cumulative Navigated Miles (CNM) of all ships reporting their position and navigational status via AIS, number of active and idle ships, and fleet average speed. To highlight significant changes in shipping routes and operational patterns, we also compute and compare global and local vessel density maps. We compare 2020 mobility levels to those of previous years assuming that an unchanged growth rate would have been achieved, if not for COVID-19. Following the outbreak, we find an unprecedented drop in maritime mobility, across all categories of commercial shipping. With few exceptions, a generally reduced activity is observable from March to June 2020, when the most severe restrictions were in force. We quantify a variation of mobility between -5.62 and -13.77% for container ships, between +2.28 and -3.32% for dry bulk, between -0.22 and -9.27% for wet bulk, and between -19.57 and -42.77% for passenger traffic. The presented study is unprecedented for the uniqueness and completeness of the employed AIS dataset, which comprises a trillion AIS messages broadcast worldwide by 50,000 ships, a figure that closely parallels the documented size of the world merchant fleet.
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Project description:Objective: To investigate the association between functional status and post-acute care (PAC) transition(s). Methods: Secondary analysis of 2013-2014 Medicare data for individuals aged ≥66 years with stroke, lower extremity joint replacements, and hip/femur fracture discharged to one of three PAC settings (inpatient rehabilitation facilities, skilled nursing facilities, and home health agencies). Functional scores were co-calibrated into a 0-100 scale across settings. Multilevel logistic regression was used to test the partition of variance (%) and the probability of PAC transition attributed to the functional score in the initial PAC setting. Results: Patients discharged to inpatient rehabilitation facilities with higher function were less likely to use additional PAC. Function level in an inpatient rehabilitation facility explained more of the variance in PAC transitions than function level while in a skilled nursing facility. Discussion: The function level affected PAC transitions more for those discharged to an inpatient rehabilitation facility than to a skilled nursing facility.
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Project description:Covid-19 had shown the vulnerability of the food supply chain and fraudsters may take advantage of the pandemic whilst the population needed a continuous supply of safe and quality food. The lack of monitoring and policing in the food supply chain may encourage fraudsters to upscale their operations. Previous studies had warned of a surge in fraudulent products due to COVID-19. This raised the question on whether food fraud had increased during the pandemic? This study aims to investigate food fraud during COVID-19 and how the food supply chain develops mitigating strategies against fraudulent activities. A mixed-method approach including survey and semi-structured interviews were conducted among UK food businesses. Two hundred and two agri-food businesses responded to the survey and 15 semi-structured interviews were conducted. The majority of the food businesses did not experience an increase of food fraud activities during COVID-19. Two thematic domains and ten sub-themes were identified from the data set. There was a heightened sense of anticipation and preparation for increased fraudulent activities during the pandemic. The main risk mitigating strategies included horizon scanning; developing and maintaining supplier relationship and assurance; understanding product characteristics, testing capabilities, conducting vulnerability assessments and training. Practical and cost-effective strategies for small and medium food businesses were recommended. This is the first empirical study on food fraud and mitigating strategies of the UK food supply chain during the pandemic. Our findings provide evidence for informing the policies and practices of the food regulatory authorities as well as best practices to protect the UK food supply chain against food fraud during exogenous shocks like COVID-19.
| S-EPMC9894533 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRestrictions on the advertising of less-healthy foods and beverages is seen as one measure to tackle childhood obesity and is under active consideration by the UK government. Whilst evidence increasingly links this advertising to excess calorie intake, understanding of the potential impact of advertising restrictions on population health is limited.Methods and findingsWe used a proportional multi-state life table model to estimate the health impact of prohibiting the advertising of food and beverages high in fat, sugar, and salt (HFSS) from 05.30 hours to 21.00 hours (5:30 AM to 9:00 PM) on television in the UK. We used the following data to parameterise the model: children's exposure to HFSS advertising from AC Nielsen and Broadcasters' Audience Research Board (2015); effect of less-healthy food advertising on acute caloric intake in children from a published meta-analysis; population numbers and all-cause mortality rates from the Human Mortality Database for the UK (2015); body mass index distribution from the Health Survey for England (2016); disability weights for estimating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Disease Study; and healthcare costs from NHS England programme budgeting data. The main outcome measures were change in the percentage of the children (aged 5-17 years) with obesity defined using the International Obesity Task Force cut-points, and change in health status (DALYs). Monte Carlo analyses was used to estimate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We estimate that if all HFSS advertising between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours was withdrawn, UK children (n = 13,729,000), would see on average 1.5 fewer HFSS adverts per day and decrease caloric intake by 9.1 kcal (95% UI 0.5-17.7 kcal), which would reduce the number of children (aged 5-17 years) with obesity by 4.6% (95% UI 1.4%-9.5%) and with overweight (including obesity) by 3.6% (95% UI 1.1%-7.4%) This is equivalent to 40,000 (95% UI 12,000-81,000) fewer UK children with obesity, and 120,000 (95% UI 34,000-240,000) fewer with overweight. For children alive in 2015 (n = 13,729,000), this would avert 240,000 (95% UI 65,000-530,000) DALYs across their lifetime (i.e., followed from 2015 through to death), and result in a health-related net monetary benefit of £7.4 billion (95% UI £2.0 billion-£16 billion) to society. Under a scenario where all HFSS advertising is displaced to after 21.00 hours, rather than withdrawn, we estimate that the benefits would be reduced by around two-thirds. This is a modelling study and subject to uncertainty; we cannot fully and accurately account for all of the factors that would affect the impact of this policy if implemented. Whilst randomised trials show that children exposed to less-healthy food advertising consume more calories, there is uncertainty about the nature of the dose-response relationship between HFSS advertising and calorie intake.ConclusionsOur results show that HFSS television advertising restrictions between 05.30 hours and 21.00 hours in the UK could make a meaningful contribution to reducing childhood obesity. We estimate that the impact on childhood obesity of this policy may be reduced by around two-thirds if adverts are displaced to after 21.00 hours rather than being withdrawn.
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Project description:The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has undoubtedly had a major impact on the provision of physical healthcare in Ireland and worldwide. The mental health impact of this pandemic cannot be underestimated, particularly relating to patients suffering from addiction. Heightened public stress and anxiety levels, increasing isolation and the physical consequences of addiction play a large role in the proliferation and ongoing relapse of substance misuse and behavioural addiction. Service provision is an ongoing challenge not only due to the increasing need for services given the increased mental health burden of COVID-19 but also the restrictions in place in clinical areas to achieve social distancing. The necessary adaptations to service provision provide opportunities for the analysis of current processes used in our addiction unit and the introduction of new processes to our service. The current crisis tests the sustainability of the service to provide the high standard of care required for these patients.
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