Modelling the potential impact of mask use in schools and society on COVID-19 control in the UK.
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SUBMITTER: Panovska-Griffiths J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8062670 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The educational and social benefits provided by school far outweigh the risks of a possible COVID-19 contamination of children in school environments or in daycare centers. Following summer break, the back-to-school period in France is taking place in the context of an increasing viral spread and requires strict adherence to health measures to limit the risk of outbreaks in communities. Based on a critical update of the role of children in the transmission of the infection, and of children's susceptibility to infection, the French Pediatric Society published practical guidelines for school re-entry and the management of COVID-19 infections in schools.
| S-EPMC7473250 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundFace mask wearing has been an important part of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As vaccination coverage progresses in countries, relaxation of such practices is increasing. Subsequent COVID-19 surges have raised the questions of whether face masks should be encouraged or required and for how long. Here, we aim to assess the value of maintaining face masks use indoors according to different COVID-19 vaccination coverage levels in the USA.MethodsIn this computational simulation-model study, we developed and used a Monte Carlo simulation model representing the US population and SARS-CoV-2 spread. Simulation experiments compared what would happen if face masks were used versus not used until given final vaccination coverages were achieved. Different scenarios varied the target vaccination coverage (70-90%), the date these coverages were achieved (Jan 1, 2022, to July 1, 2022), and the date the population discontinued wearing face masks.FindingsSimulation experiments revealed that maintaining face mask use (at the coverage seen in the USA from March, 2020, to July, 2020) until target vaccination coverages were achieved was cost-effective and in many cases cost saving from both the societal and third-party payer perspectives across nearly all scenarios explored. Face mask use was estimated to be cost-effective and usually cost saving when the cost of face masks per person per day was ≤US$1·25. In all scenarios, it was estimated to be cost-effective to maintain face mask use for about 2-10 weeks beyond the date that target vaccination coverage (70-90%) was achieved, with this added duration being longer when the target coverage was achieved during winter versus summer. Factors that might increase the transmissibility of the virus (eg, emergence of the delta [B.1.617.2] and omicron [B.1.1.529] variants), or decrease vaccine effectiveness (eg, waning immunity or escape variants), or increase social interactions among certain segments of the population, only increased the cost savings or cost-effectiveness provided by maintaining face mask use.InterpretationOur study provides strong support for maintaining face mask use until and a short time after achieving various final vaccination coverage levels, given that maintaining face mask use can be not just cost-effective, but even cost saving. The emergence of the omicron variant and the prospect of future variants that might be more transmissible and reduce vaccine effectiveness only increases the value of face masks.FundingThe Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, the National Science Foundation, the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, and the City University of New York.
| S-EPMC8903840 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Since its outbreak, COVID-19 has impacted world regions differentially. Whereas some regions still record tens of thousands of new infections daily, other regions have contained the virus. What explains these striking regional differences? We advance a cultural psychological perspective on mask usage, a precautionary measure vital for curbing the pandemic. Four large-scale studies provide evidence that collectivism (versus individualism) positively predicts mask usage-both within the United States and across the world. Analyzing a dataset of all 3,141 counties of the 50 US states (based on 248,941 individuals), Study 1a revealed that mask usage was higher in more collectivistic US states. Study 1b replicated this finding in another dataset of 16,737 individuals in the 50 US states. Analyzing a dataset of 367,109 individuals in 29 countries, Study 2 revealed that mask usage was higher in more collectivistic countries. Study 3 replicated this finding in a dataset of 277,219 Facebook users in 67 countries. The link between collectivism and mask usage was robust to a host of control variables, including cultural tightness-looseness, political affiliation, demographics, population density, socioeconomic indicators, universal health coverage, government response stringency, and time. Our research suggests that culture fundamentally shapes how people respond to crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding cultural differences not only provides insight into the current pandemic, but also helps the world prepare for future crises.
| S-EPMC8201834 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Abstract There is no denying the impact that the coronravirus disease (COVID?19) outbreak has had on many aspects of our lives. This article looks at the potential impact of COVID?19 on student learning as schools abruptly morphed into virtual learning environments using data from several instructional, practice, and assessment solutions offered by Renaissance. First, three hypothetical learning scenarios are considered using normative data from Star assessments to explore the potential impact on reading and math test performace. Next, data on Focus Skills are used to highlight which grades may have missed the most foundational math and reading content if instruction was stopped or reduced. Last, data from two of Renaissance's practice tools are used to evaluate whether students were practicing key skills following school closures. The article concludes that academic decline will likely occur but may be tempered by the increased use of practice tools; effects may look different for math and reading; and may impact grades and schools differently. As such, schools may need to leverage decision?making frameworks, such as the Multi?tiered Systems of Support/Response?to?Intervention (MTSS/RTI) framework, more than ever to identify needs and target instruction where it matters most when school begins in fall 2020.
| S-EPMC7405060 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The 2020 Covid-19 pandemic provides an empirical testing ground for assessing the impact of critical events on societal transitions. Such events are typically seen as exogenous to the transition process, an assumption which is investigated in this paper. Using a qualitative system dynamics modelling approach we conceptualize transition pathways as sets of interacting sequences of events. This enables the analysis of event sequences that constitute the evolving pandemic as impacting on those pathways. We apply this approach to the provision of (auto)mobility and food in the UK. This shows the way in which the pandemic has had a differential effect on ongoing transitions in both systems, sometimes slowing them down, and sometimes accelerating them. In addition, it reveals how it has established new transition pathways. The empirical work further shows how qualitative modelling with system dynamics facilitates an explicit and systematic comparative analysis of transition case studies.
| S-EPMC8565922 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Face masks are now seen as a key tool in the world's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, during the early stages of the outbreak, face mask use in the United Kingdom (UK) was significantly lower than that of countries equally impacted by the virus. We were interested to explore whether social cognitions played a role in levels of mask wearing. A cross-sectional online survey of UK adults (n=908) was conducted in July 2020. Estimated face mask use and thoughts about wearing face masks were assessed using measures developed for this study. Participants also answered questions about their general mood, social anxiety and basic demographic data. Multiple regression was used to examine factors associated with mask wearing. Participants' estimated mask wearing was low when in public spaces, such as the park (17%) or walking on the high street (36%). However, broadly fitting with UK guidance at the time, rates were considerably higher when in situations of closer proximity to others, such as on public transport (94%), in a shop or café (62%), when speaking to somebody in an enclosed public space (67%) or in a busy area when social distancing was not possible (79%). When looking at estimated mask wearing when in proximity to others, positive social cognitions (e.g., I'll look confident and competent wearing a mask) were associated with more wearing, whereas negative social cognitions (e.g., I'll look anxious, I'll look foolish) were associated with less wearing. These results remained after controlling for factors that have indicated increased risk from COVID-19 (age, gender, ethnicity, presence of a health condition or pregnancy), belief about the health benefit for others and levels of depression and social anxiety. The largest predictors of mask wearing were the amount of people believed wearing a mask would keep others safe and the presence of an underlying health condition. The study findings indicate that future public health campaigns would benefit from a focus on strengthening beliefs about the protective benefits of masks, but also promoting positive social messages about wearing in public (e.g., mask wearing means you are confident and competent).
| S-EPMC8569128 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNovel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Although public health countermeasures effectively controlled the epidemic in China, non-pharmaceutical interventions can neither be maintained indefinitely nor conveniently implemented globally. Vaccination is mainly used to prevent COVID-19, and most current antiviral treatment evaluations focus on clinical efficacy. Therefore, we conducted population-based simulations to assess antiviral treatment effectiveness among different age groups based on its clinical efficacy.MethodsWe collected COVID-19 data of Wuhan City from published literature and established a database (from 2 December 2019 to 16 March 2020). We developed an age-specific model to evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral treatment in patients with COVID-19. Efficacy was divided into three types: (1) viral activity reduction, reflected as transmission rate decrease [reduction was set as v (0-0.8) to simulate hypothetical antiviral treatments]; (2) reduction in the duration time from symptom onset to patient recovery/removal, reflected as a 1/γ decrease (reduction was set as 1-3 days to simulate hypothetical or real-life antiviral treatments, and the time of asymptomatic was reduced by the same proportion); (3) fatality rate reduction in severely ill patients (fc) [reduction (z) was set as 0.3 to simulate real-life antiviral treatments]. The population was divided into four age groups (groups 1, 2, 3 and 4), which included those aged ≤ 14; 15-44; 45-64; and ≥ 65 years, respectively. Evaluation indices were based on outbreak duration, cumulative number of cases, total attack rate (TAR), peak date, number of peak cases, and case fatality rate (f).ResultsComparing the simulation results of combination and single medication therapy s, all four age groups showed better results with combination medication. When 1/γ = 2 and v = 0.4, age group 2 had the highest TAR reduction rate (98.48%, 56.01-0.85%). When 1/γ = 2, z = 0.3, and v = 0.1, age group 1 had the highest reduction rate of f (83.08%, 0.71-0.12%).ConclusionsAntiviral treatments are more effective in COVID-19 transmission control than in mortality reduction. Overall, antiviral treatments were more effective in younger age groups, while older age groups showed higher COVID-19 prevalence and mortality. Therefore, physicians should pay more attention to prevention of viral spread and patients deaths when providing antiviral treatments to patients of older age groups.
| S-EPMC8054260 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAs lockdown measures to slow the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection begin to ease in the UK, it is important to assess the impact of any changes in policy, including school reopening and broader relaxation of physical distancing measures. We aimed to use an individual-based model to predict the impact of two possible strategies for reopening schools to all students in the UK from September, 2020, in combination with different assumptions about relaxation of physical distancing measures and the scale-up of testing.MethodsIn this modelling study, we used Covasim, a stochastic individual-based model for transmission of SARS-CoV-2, calibrated to the UK epidemic. The model describes individuals' contact networks stratified into household, school, workplace, and community layers, and uses demographic and epidemiological data from the UK. We simulated six different scenarios, representing the combination of two school reopening strategies (full time and a part-time rota system with 50% of students attending school on alternate weeks) and three testing scenarios (68% contact tracing with no scale-up in testing, 68% contact tracing with sufficient testing to avoid a second COVID-19 wave, and 40% contact tracing with sufficient testing to avoid a second COVID-19 wave). We estimated the number of new infections, cases, and deaths, as well as the effective reproduction number (R) under different strategies. In a sensitivity analysis to account for uncertainties within the stochastic simulation, we also simulated infectiousness of children and young adults aged younger than 20 years at 50% relative to older ages (20 years and older).FindingsWith increased levels of testing (between 59% and 87% of symptomatic people tested at some point during an active SARS-CoV-2 infection, depending on the scenario), and effective contact tracing and isolation, an epidemic rebound might be prevented. Assuming 68% of contacts could be traced, we estimate that 75% of individuals with symptomatic infection would need to be tested and positive cases isolated if schools return full-time in September, or 65% if a part-time rota system were used. If only 40% of contacts could be traced, these figures would increase to 87% and 75%, respectively. However, without these levels of testing and contact tracing, reopening of schools together with gradual relaxing of the lockdown measures are likely to induce a second wave that would peak in December, 2020, if schools open full-time in September, and in February, 2021, if a part-time rota system were adopted. In either case, the second wave would result in R rising above 1 and a resulting second wave of infections 2·0-2·3 times the size of the original COVID-19 wave. When infectiousness of children and young adults was varied from 100% to 50% of that of older ages, we still found that a comprehensive and effective test-trace-isolate strategy would be required to avoid a second COVID-19 wave.InterpretationTo prevent a second COVID-19 wave, relaxation of physical distancing, including reopening of schools, in the UK must be accompanied by large-scale, population-wide testing of symptomatic individuals and effective tracing of their contacts, followed by isolation of diagnosed individuals.FundingNone.
| S-EPMC7398659 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeTo evaluate euploidy rates and probability of having at least one euploid embryo for transfer per cycle when mosaicism is reported compared to when it is masked.MethodsWomen age 18-46 years who underwent PGT-A with next generation sequencing of blastocyst biopsies were analyzed. When reported, mosaic embryos were classified as low-level, 20-40% mosaic, or high-level, 41-80% mosaic. When masked, low-level mosaics were categorized as euploid and high-level mosaics were considered aneuploid. Comparative analyses were performed with χ2 tests and t-tests.ResultsA total of 22,504 PGT-A biopsy cycles from 18,401 patients were included. These cycles were from 293 different clinics with a mean of 1.22 cycles per patient. The majority of cycles (94.8%) reported mosaicism, and only 5.2% cycles were masked. The euploidy rate was significantly lower when mosaicism was reported versus masked (38.7% v 47.4%, p < 0.0001), which remained significant for age 40 years old and younger. The mosaic reporting cohort was less likely to have at least one euploid embryo for transfer (68.8%) compared to the masked cohort (75.7%) (p < 0.0001); however, this was no longer significant after stratification by age.ConclusionMosaicism reporting shows an overall expected reduction in euploidy rate. In turn, the probability of having a euploid embryo to transfer depends on clinic transfer practices and patient preference. If mosaic embryos are not transferred, we observe a reduction in probability of having an embryo for transfer. Although the magnitude of these differences is small, our data show that mosaic reporting may contribute to embryo attrition rate.
| S-EPMC9474961 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo estimate the impact of the UK government's sugar reduction programme on child and adult obesity, adult disease burden, and healthcare costs.DesignModelling study.SettingSimulated scenario based on National Diet and Nutrition Survey waves 5 and 6, England.Participants1508 survey respondents were used to model weight change among the population of England aged 4-80 years.Main outcome measuresCalorie change, weight change, and body mass index change were estimated for children and adults. Impact on non-communicable disease incidence, quality adjusted life years, and healthcare costs were estimated for adults. Changes to disease burden were modelled with the PRIMEtime-CE Model, based on the 2014 population in England aged 18-80.ResultsIf the sugar reduction programme was achieved in its entirety and resulted in the planned sugar reduction, then the calorie reduction was estimated to be 25 kcal/day (1 kcal=4.18 kJ=0.00418 MJ) for 4-10 year olds (95% confidence interval 23 to 26), 25 kcal/day (24 to 28) for 11-18 year olds, and 19 kcal/day (17 to 20) for adults. The reduction in obesity could represent 5.5% of the baseline obese population of 4-10 year olds, 2.2% of obese 11-18 year olds, and 5.5% of obese 19-80 year olds. A modelled 51 729 quality adjusted life years (95% uncertainty interval 45 768 to 57 242) were saved over 10 years, including 154 550 (132 623 to 174 604) cases of diabetes and relating to a net healthcare saving of £285.8m (€332.5m, $373.5m; £249.7m to £319.8m).ConclusionsThe UK government's sugar reduction programme could reduce the burden of obesity and obesity related disease, provided that reductions in sugar levels and portion sizes do not prompt unanticipated changes in eating patterns or product formulation.
| S-EPMC6468887 | biostudies-literature