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A neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio-based prognostic model to predict mortality in patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

ABSTRACT:

Background

Although the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) research consortium (AARC) ACLF score is easy to use in patients with hepatitis b virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF), serum lactate is not routinely tested in primary hospitals, and its value may be affected by some interference factors. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is used to assess the status of bacterial infection (BI) or outcomes in patients with various diseases. We developed an NLR-based AARC ACLF score and compared it with the existing model.

Methods

A total of 494 HBV-ACLF patients, enrolled in four tertiary academic hospitals in China with 90-day follow-up, were analysed. Prognostic performance of baseline NLR and lactate were compared between cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic subgroups via the receiver operating curve and Kaplan–Meier analyses. A modified AARC ACLF (mAARC ACLF) score using NLR as a replacement for lactate was developed (n = 290) and validated (n = 204).

Results

There were significantly higher baseline values of NLR in non-survivors, patients with admission BI, and those with higher grades of ACLF compared with the control groups. Compared with lactate, NLR better reflected BI status in the cirrhotic subgroup, and was more significantly correlated with CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, and the AARC score. NLR was an independent predictor of 90-day mortality, and was categorized into three risk grades (< 3.10, 3.10–4.78, and > 4.78) with 90-day cumulative mortalities of 8%, 21.2%, and 77.5% in the derivation cohort, respectively. The mAARC ACLF score, using the three grades of NLR instead of corresponding levels of lactate, was superior to the other four scores in predicting 90-day mortality in the derivation (AUROC 0.906, 95% CI 0.872–0.940, average P < 0.001) and validation cohorts (AUROC 0.913, 95% CI 0.876–0.950, average P < 0.01), with a considerable performance in predicting 28-day mortality in the two cohorts.

Conclusions

The prognostic value of NLR is superior to that of lactate in predicting short-term mortality risk in cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-ACLF. NLR can be incorporated into the AARC ACLF scoring system for improving its prognostic accuracy and facilitating the management guidance in patients with HBV-ACLF in primary hospitals.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-02007-w.

SUBMITTER: Sun J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8579631 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundHemodialysis (HD) is the most important renal replacement therapy for patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Systemic inflammation is a risk factor of mortality in HD patients. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) are new inflammatory markers. However, previous studies have inconsistent conclusions about the predictive value of NLR, MLR and PLR on mortality of HD patients. The aim of this study was to establish an inflammation scoring system by including NLR, MLR and PLR, and evaluate the association between the inflammation score and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in HD patients.MethodsIn this single center retrospective cohort study, 213 incident HD patients from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2020 were included. Baseline demographic and clinical data and laboratory measurements were collected. According to the optimal cut-off values, NLR, MLR and PLR were assigned 0 or 1 point, respectively. Then, the inflammation score was obtained by adding the NLR, MLR and PLR scores. All patients were followed until July 31, 2021. The associations of the inflammation score with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were assessed by multivariable-adjusted Cox models.ResultsOf 213 patients, the mean (± SD) age was 56.8 ± 14.4 years, 66.2% were men, and 32.9% with diabetes. The primary cause of ESKD was mainly chronic glomerulonephritis (46.5%) and diabetic nephropathy (28.6%). The median inflammation score was 2 (interquartile range = 1-3). During a median 30 months (interquartile range = 17-50 months) follow-up period, 53 patients had died, of which 33 deaths were caused by cardiovascular disease. After adjusting for demographics, primary diseases and other confounders in multivariable model, the inflammation score = 3 was associated with a hazard ratio for all-cause mortality of 4.562 (95% confidence interval, 1.342-15.504, P = 0.015) and a hazard ratio for cardiovascular mortality of 4.027 (95% confidence interval, 0.882-18.384, P = 0.072).ConclusionIn conclusion, an inflammation scoring system was established by including NLR, MLR and PLR, and the higher inflammation score was independently associated with all-cause mortality in HD patients.