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CD200R Combined Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio Predict 90-Day Mortality in HBV-Related Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure.

ABSTRACT: Background: Survival of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) cannot be properly predicted based on clinical characteristics. Aims: This study aimed to develop a predictive model to evaluating the prognosis for hepatitis B virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF) based on specific laboratory and immune indicators. Methods: Baseline laboratory results were obtained and immune indicators were detected by flow cytometry. A predictive model, which estimates the prognosis at 90-day follow-up, was developed using data from a prospective study on 45 patients hospitalized of HBV-ACLF from June 2016 to April 2018 at the Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University. The prognostic values of the predictive factors were determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. Results: Six factors exhibited statistical differences between the survival and non-survival groups: proportions of CD4⁺T_N, CD4⁺T_EM, CD8⁺T_N, CD8⁺T_EM, CD200R⁺CD4⁺T cells and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). CD200R combined with the NLR had an AUROC of 0.916, which was significantly higher than the AUROC values of CD200R⁺CD4⁺T cells (0.868), NLR (0.761), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) (0.840), MELD-Na (0.870), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) (0.580), or chronic liver failure-consortium ACLF (CLIF-C ACLF) score(0.840). At the cut-off point of-3.87, matching the maximum Youden index determined by ROC analysis, the positive predictive and negative predictive values for the mortality were 0.86 and 0.97, respectively. Conclusions: The 90-day prediction model based on baseline levels of CD200R⁺CD4⁺T cells and NLR offers potential predictive value for the mortality of HBV-ACLF.

SUBMITTER: Li Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8685236 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAlthough the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) research consortium (AARC) ACLF score is easy to use in patients with hepatitis b virus-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF), serum lactate is not routinely tested in primary hospitals, and its value may be affected by some interference factors. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is used to assess the status of bacterial infection (BI) or outcomes in patients with various diseases. We developed an NLR-based AARC ACLF score and compared it with the existing model.MethodsA total of 494 HBV-ACLF patients, enrolled in four tertiary academic hospitals in China with 90-day follow-up, were analysed. Prognostic performance of baseline NLR and lactate were compared between cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic subgroups via the receiver operating curve and Kaplan-Meier analyses. A modified AARC ACLF (mAARC ACLF) score using NLR as a replacement for lactate was developed (n = 290) and validated (n = 204).ResultsThere were significantly higher baseline values of NLR in non-survivors, patients with admission BI, and those with higher grades of ACLF compared with the control groups. Compared with lactate, NLR better reflected BI status in the cirrhotic subgroup, and was more significantly correlated with CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, and the AARC score. NLR was an independent predictor of 90-day mortality, and was categorized into three risk grades (< 3.10, 3.10-4.78, and > 4.78) with 90-day cumulative mortalities of 8%, 21.2%, and 77.5% in the derivation cohort, respectively. The mAARC ACLF score, using the three grades of NLR instead of corresponding levels of lactate, was superior to the other four scores in predicting 90-day mortality in the derivation (AUROC 0.906, 95% CI 0.872-0.940, average P < 0.001) and validation cohorts (AUROC 0.913, 95% CI 0.876-0.950, average P < 0.01), with a considerable performance in predicting 28-day mortality in the two cohorts.ConclusionsThe prognostic value of NLR is superior to that of lactate in predicting short-term mortality risk in cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients with HBV-ACLF. NLR can be incorporated into the AARC ACLF scoring system for improving its prognostic accuracy and facilitating the management guidance in patients with HBV-ACLF in primary hospitals.

Project description:Background: Sepsis can cause unpredictable harm, and early identification of risk for mortality may be conducive to clinical diagnosis. The present study proposes to assess the efficacy of the monocyte/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (MHR) combined with the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) on the day of admission in predictive efficacy in the 28-day mortality risk in critical patients with sepsis. Material and Methods: We administered observational and retrospective cohort research from a single center. The correlation of the clinical variables, together with the system severity scores of APACHE II and SOFA, are displayed by correlation analysis, and a Cox regression model could be performed to screen the independent risk factors and estimate the capacity of multiple markers in predicting 28-day mortality. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve served as an applied method to output cutoff values for the diagnosis and prognostic risk, and the area under the ROC curve and net reclassification improvement index (NRI), as well as integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI) were employed to assess the feasibility of multiple parameters for predictive value in 28-day mortality of septic patients. Results: The study enrolled 274 eligible patients with sepsis. The correlation analysis indicated NLR and MHR were related to the sepsis severity. A multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that NLR together with MHR displayed a close relation to death rate after adjusting for other potential confounders (NLR, HR = 1.404 [95% CI 1.170-1.684], P < 0.001; MHR, HR = 1.217 [95% CI 1.112-1.331], P < 0.001). The AUC of NLR, MHR, NLR_MHR was 0.827, 0.876, and 0.934, respectively. The addition on the biomarker NLR_MHR to the prediction model improved IDI by 18.5% and NRI by 37.8%. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that NLR and MHR trend to an elevated level in non-surviving patients with sepsis. Evaluation of NLR_MHR, an independent risk factor for increased mortality, might improve the predictive efficacy for 28-day mortality risk in septic patients.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Gastric cancer is the 2nd most common cause of cancer-related deaths, and the morbidity rate after surgery is reported to be as high as 46%. The estimation of possible complications, morbidity, and mortality and the ability to specify patients at high risk have become substantial for an intimate follow-up and for proper management in the intensive care unit. This study aimed to determine the prognostic value of the preoperative platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and their relations with clinical outcomes and complications after gastrectomy for gastric cancer. METHODS:This single-center, retrospective cohort study evaluated the data of 292 patients who underwent gastrectomy with curative intent between January 2015 and June 2018 in a tertiary state hospital in Ankara, Turkey. A receiver operating characteristic curve was generated to evaluate the ability of laboratory values to predict clinically relevant postoperative complications. The area under the curve was computed to compare the predictive power of the NLR and PLR. Then, the cutoff points were selected as the stratifying values for the PLR and NLR. RESULTS:The area under the curve values of the PLR (0.60, 95% CI 0.542-0.657) and NLR (0.556, 95% CI 0.497-0.614) were larger than those of the other preoperative laboratory values. For the PLR, the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 50.00 and 72.22%, respectively, whereas for the NLR, the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 37.50 and 80.16%, respectively. The PLR was related to morbidity, whereas the relation of the NLR with mortality was more prominent. This study demonstrated that the PLR and NLR may predict mortality and morbidity via the Clavien-Dindo classification in gastric cancer patients. The variable was grade ? 3 in the Clavien-Dindo classification, including complications requiring surgical or endoscopic interventions, life-threatening complications, and death. Both the PLR and NLR differed significantly according to Clavien-Dindo grade ? 3. In this analysis, the PLR was related to morbidity, while the NLR relation with mortality was more intense. CONCLUSION:Based on the results of the study, the PLR and NLR could be used as independent predictive factors for mortality and morbidity in patients with gastric cancer.

Project description:Background:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly worldwide from Wuhan. An easy-to-use index capable of the early identification of inpatients who are at risk of becoming critically ill is urgently needed in clinical practice. Hence, the aim of this study was to explore an easy-to-use nomogram and a model to triage patients into risk categories to determine the likelihood of developing a critical illness. Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted. We extracted data from 84 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from one designated hospital. The primary endpoint was the development of severe/critical illness within 7 days after admission. Predictive factors of this endpoint were selected by LASSO Cox regression model. A nomogram was developed based on selected variables. The predictive performance of the derived nomogram was evaluated by calibration curves and decision curves. Additionally, the predictive performances of individual and combined variables under study were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves. The developed model was also tested in a separate validation set with 71 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients. Results:None of the 84 inpatients were lost to follow-up in this retrospective study. The primary endpoint occurred in 23 inpatients (27.4%). The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were selected as the final prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed based on the NLR and CRP. The calibration curve and decision curve indicated that the constructed nomogram model was clinically useful. The AUCs for the NLR, CRP and Combined Index in both training set and validation sets were 0.685 (95% CI: 0.574-0.783), 0.764 (95% CI: 0.659-0.850), 0.804 (95% CI: 0.702-0.883), and 0.881 (95% CI: 0.782-0.946), respectively. Conclusions:Our results demonstrated that the nomogram and Combined Index calculated from the NLR and CRP are potential and reliable predictors of COVID-19 prognosis and can triage patients at the time of admission.

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CD200R Combined Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio Predict 90-Day Mortality in HBV-Related Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure.

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