Stochastic Optimization for Vaccine and Testing Kit Allocation for the COVID-19 Pandemic.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Thul L
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8580866 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveTo assess the value of using SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody testing to prioritize the vaccination of susceptible individuals as part of a COVID-19 vaccine distribution plan when vaccine supply is limited.MethodsAn extended susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) compartmental model was used to simulate COVID-19 spread when considering diagnosis, isolation, and vaccination of a cohort of 1 million individuals. The scenarios modeled represented 4 pandemic severity scenarios and various times when the vaccine becomes available during the pandemic. Eligible individuals have a probability p of receiving antibody testing prior to vaccination (p = 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 1). The vaccine was modeled as a single dose vaccine with 90% and 70% efficacy. The value of serology testing was evaluated by comparing the infection attack rate, peak infections, peak day, and deaths.ResultsThe use of antibody testing to prioritize the allocation of limited vaccines reduces infection attack rates and deaths. The size of the reduction depends on when the vaccine becomes available relative to the infection peak day. The largest percentage reduction in cases and deaths occurs when the vaccine is deployed before and close to the infection peak day. The reduction in the number of cases and deaths diminishes as vaccine deployment is delayed.ConclusionsAntibody testing as part of the vaccination plan is an effective method to maximize the benefit of a COVID-19 vaccine. Decision-makers need to consider relative timing between the infection peak day and when the vaccine becomes available.
| S-EPMC8233959 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-BSST1076 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundThis study presents a framework for determining the allocation and distribution of the limited amount of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).MethodsAfter analyzing the pandemic strategies of the major organizations and countries and with a literature review conducted by a core panel, a modified Delphi survey was administered to 13 experts in the fields of vaccination, infectious disease, and public health in the Republic of Korea. The following topics were discussed: 1) identifying the objectives of the vaccination strategy, 2) identifying allocation criteria, and 3) establishing a step-by-step vaccination framework and prioritization strategy based on the allocation criteria. Two rounds of surveys were conducted for each topic, with a structured questionnaire provided via e-mail in the first round. After analyzing the responses, a meeting with the experts was held to obtain consensus on how to prioritize the population groups.ResultsThe first objective of the vaccination strategy was maintenance of the integrity of the healthcare system and critical infrastructure, followed by reduction of morbidity and mortality and reduction of community transmission. In the initial phase, older adult residents in care homes, high-risk health and social care workers, and personal support workers who work in direct contact with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients would be prioritized. Expansion of vaccine supply would allow immunization of older adults not included in phase 1, followed by healthcare workers not previously included and individuals with comorbidities. Further widespread vaccine supply would ensure availability to the extended adult age groups (50-64 years old), critical workers outside the health sector, residents who cannot socially distance, and, eventually, the remaining populations.ConclusionThis survey provides the much needed insight into the decision-making process for vaccine allocation at the national level. However, flexibility in adapting to strategies will be essential, as new information is constantly emerging.
| S-EPMC8203851 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundECMO is a particularly scarce resource during the COVID-19 pandemic. Its allocation involves ethical considerations that may be different to usual times. There is limited pre-pandemic literature on the ethical factors that ECMO physicians consider during ECMO allocation. During the pandemic, there has been relatively little professional guidance specifically relating to ethics and ECMO allocation; although there has been active ethical debate about allocation of other critical care resources. We report the results of a small international exploratory survey of ECMO clinicians' views on different patient factors in ECMO decision-making prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We then outline current ethical decision procedures and recommendations for rationing life-sustaining treatment during the COVID-19 pandemic, and examine the extent to which current guidelines for ECMO allocation (and reported practice) adhere to these ethical guidelines and recommendations.MethodsAn online survey was performed with responses recorded between mid May and mid August 2020. Participants (n = 48) were sourced from the ECMOCard study group-an international group of experts (n = 120) taking part in a prospective international study of ECMO and intensive care for patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey compared the extent to which certain ethical factors involved in ECMO resource allocation were considered prior to and during the pandemic.ResultsWhen initiating ECMO during the pandemic, compared to usual times, participants reported giving more ethical weight to the benefit of ECMO to other patients not yet admitted as opposed to those already receiving ECMO, (p < 0.001). If a full unit were referred a good candidate for ECMO, participants were more likely during the pandemic to consider discontinuing ECMO from a current patient with low chance of survival (53% during pandemic vs. 33% prior p = 0.002). If the clinical team recommends that ECMO should cease, but family do not agree, the majority of participants indicated that they would continue treatment, both in usual circumstances (67%) and during the pandemic (56%).ConclusionsWe found differences during the COVID-19 pandemic in prioritisation of several ethical factors in the context of ECMO allocation. The ethical principles prioritised by survey participants were largely consistent with ECMO allocation guidelines, current ethical decision procedures and recommendations for allocation of life-sustaining treatment during the COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC8169422 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Committing to global access for COVID-19 vaccines is key to avoiding a resurgence of the pandemic. However, the vaccine rollout continues to highlight longstanding inequities and agreements between countries and vaccine manufacturers that undermine a globally coordinated approach. The surest path out of this pandemic is one towards greater equity.
| S-EPMC7972793 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAnticipating an initial shortage of vaccines for COVID-19, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in the United States developed priority vaccine allocations for specific demographic groups in the population. This study evaluates the performance of the CDC vaccine allocation strategy with respect to multiple potentially competing vaccination goals (minimizing mortality, cases, infections, and years of life lost (YLL)), under the same framework as the CDC allocation: four priority vaccination groups and population demographics stratified by age, comorbidities, occupation and living condition (congested or non-congested).Methods and findingsWe developed a compartmental disease model that incorporates key elements of the current pandemic including age-varying susceptibility to infection, age-varying clinical fraction, an active case-count dependent social distancing level, and time-varying infectivity (accounting for the emergence of more infectious virus strains). The CDC allocation strategy is compared to all other possibly optimal allocations that stagger vaccine roll-out in up to four phases (17.5 million strategies). The CDC allocation strategy performed well in all vaccination goals but never optimally. Under the developed model, the CDC allocation deviated from the optimal allocations by small amounts, with 0.19% more deaths, 4.0% more cases, 4.07% more infections, and 0.97% higher YLL, than the respective optimal strategies. The CDC decision to not prioritize the vaccination of individuals under the age of 16 was optimal, as was the prioritization of health-care workers and other essential workers over non-essential workers. Finally, a higher prioritization of individuals with comorbidities in all age groups improved outcomes compared to the CDC allocation.ConclusionThe developed approach can be used to inform the design of future vaccine allocation strategies in the United States, or adapted for use by other countries seeking to optimize the effectiveness of their vaccine allocation strategies.
| S-EPMC8598051 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-BSST1055 | biostudies-other
Project description:In the last two years, the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been a scientific and social challenge worldwide. Vaccines have been the most effective intervention for reducing virus transmission and disease severity. However, virus genetic variants are still circulating among vaccinated individuals with different symptomatology disease cases. Understanding the protective or disease associated mechanisms in vaccinated individuals is relevant to advance in vaccine development and implementation. To address this objective, serum protein profiles were characterized by quantitative proteomics and data analysis algorithms in four cohorts of vaccinated individuals uninfected and SARS-CoV-2 infected with asymptomatic, nonsevere and severe disease symptomatology. The results showed that immunoglobulins were the most overrepresented proteins in infected cohorts when compared to PCR-negative individuals. The immunoglobulin profile varied between different infected cohorts and correlated with protective or disease associated capacity. Overrepresented immunoglobulins in PCR-positive individuals correlated with protective response against SARS-CoV-2, other viruses, and thrombosis in asymptomatic cases. In nonsevere cases, correlates of protection against SARS-CoV-2 and HBV together with risk of myasthenia gravis and allergy and autoantibodies were observed. Patients with severe symptoms presented risk for allergy, chronic idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura, and autoantibodies. The analysis of underrepresented immunoglobulins in PCR-positive compared to PCR-negative individuals identified vaccine-induced protective epitopes in various coronavirus proteins including the Spike receptor-binding domain RBD. Non-immunoglobulin proteins were associated with COVID-19 symptoms and biological processes. These results evidence host-associated differences in response to vaccination and the possibility of improving vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2.
2022-10-14 | PXD031969 | Pride
Project description:Real-time vaccination following an outbreak can effectively mitigate the damage caused by an infectious disease. However, in many cases, available resources are insufficient to vaccinate the entire at-risk population, logistics result in delayed vaccine deployment, and the interaction between members of different cities facilitates a wide spatial spread of infection. Limited vaccine, time delays, and interaction (or coupling) of cities lead to tradeoffs that impact the overall magnitude of the epidemic. These tradeoffs mandate investigation of optimal strategies that minimize the severity of the epidemic by prioritizing allocation of vaccine to specific subpopulations. We use an SIR model to describe the disease dynamics of an epidemic which breaks out in one city and spreads to another. We solve a master equation to determine the resulting probability distribution of the final epidemic size. We then identify tradeoffs between vaccine, time delay, and coupling, and we determine the optimal vaccination protocols resulting from these tradeoffs.
| S-EPMC4820222 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundVaccine allocation is a national concern especially for countries such as the Philippines that have limited resources in acquiring COVID-19 vaccines. As such, certain groups are suggested to be prioritized for vaccination to protect the most vulnerable before vaccinating others.ObjectiveThe study aims to determine an optimal and equitable allocation of COVID-19 vaccines in the Philippines that will minimize the projected number of additional COVID-19 deaths while satisfying the priority groups for immediate vaccination.MethodsIn this study, a linear programming model is formulated to determine an allocation of vaccines such that COVID-19 deaths are minimized while the prioritization framework set by the government is satisfied. Data used were collected up to November 2020. Total vaccine supply, vaccine effectiveness, vaccine cost, and projected deaths are analyzed. Results of the model are also compared to other allocation approaches.ResultsResults of the model show that a vaccine coverage of around 60-70% of the population can be enough for a community with limited supplies, and an increase in vaccine supply is beneficial if the initial coverage is less than the specified target range. Additionally, among the vaccines considered in the study, the one with 89.9% effectiveness and a 183 Philippine peso price per dose projected the lowest number of deaths. Compared with other model variations and common allocation approaches, the model has achieved both an optimal and equitable allocation.ConclusionsHaving a 100% coverage for vaccination with a 100% effectiveness rate of vaccine is ideal for all countries. However, some countries have limited resources. Therefore, the results of our study can be used by policymakers to determine an optimal and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines for a country/community.
| S-EPMC8225461 | biostudies-literature