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Estimating the Number of Civilian Casualties in Modern Armed Conflicts–A Systematic Review

ABSTRACT: Objective: To examine the possibility of estimating the number of civilian casualties in modern armed conflicts. Methods: A systematic review was conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, using PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science search engines. The outcome was analyzed using a qualitative inductive thematic analysis. The scientific evidence of selected article was assessed, using the Health Evidence Quality Assessment Tool. Findings: The review of 66 included articles in this study indicates that with an increasing number of public health emergencies and the lack of vital elements of life such as water and food, emerging armed conflicts seem to be inevitable. In contrast to military-led cross-border traditional wars, modern armed conflicts affect internally on local communities and take civilian lives. Consequently, the measures and tools used in traditional military-led cross-border wars to adequately tally wounded and dead for many decades under the mandates of the International Humanitarian Law, is insufficient for modern warfare. While casualty counting during modern conflicts is deficient due to organizational, political or strategic reasons, the international organizations responsible for collecting such data (the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent and International Institute of Humanitarian Law) face difficulties to access the conflict scene, resulting in under-reported, unreliable or no-reported data. Conclusion: There are challenges in estimating and counting the number of civilian casualties in modern warfare. Although the global need for such data is evident, the risks and barriers to obtaining such data should be recognized, and the need for new international involvement in future armed conflicts should be emphasized.

SUBMITTER: Khorram-Manesh A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8581199 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundUndernutrition is defined as not consuming enough nutrients and energy to meet one's needs for maintaining good health. It is exacerbated by armed conflict. Individuals cannot stick to jobs because of a lack of safety during conflicts, which has an impact on families' ability to purchase food. However, there is a paucity of evidence on pooled evidence on the impact of armed conflict on childhood undernutrition among children aged 6 to 59 months in Africa. Therefore, this review aimed to examine the effects of armed conflict on the magnitude of undernutrition, particularly stunting, underweight, and wasting among children in Africa.MethodsA comprehensive literature search was conducted using electronic databases (PubMed, Hinari, and Google Scholar database) to locate potential studies. Heterogeneity between studies was checked using Cochrane Q test statistics and I2 test statistics. Small-study effects were checked using Egger's statistical test at a 5% significance level. A random-effects model was employed to estimate the pooled prevalence and associated factors of undernutrition among children aged 6-59 months in Africa.ResultsOf a total of 585 articles retrieved from the databases, 12 studies met our inclusion criteria. The pooled prevalence of wasting, stunting, and being underweight among conflict-affected African countries was 20.25% (95%CI = 15.08-25.43), 34.18% (95% CI = 26.34-42.02), and 24.00% (95%CI = 16.35-31.65), respectively. The most consistent factors associated with childhood stunting, wasting, and being underweight in Africa were low mother's education, prolonged duration of armed conflict, and rural place of residence.ConclusionThe severity of malnutrition crises will be assisted by a better understanding of the variables associated with child malnutrition, which will improve the effectiveness of development and humanitarian responses. We urge that health planners, policymakers, and the general public prioritize children with acute malnutrition in Africa's conflict-affected areas.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42022367487.

Project description:BackgroundArmed conflict can indirectly affect population health through detrimental impacts on political and social institutions and destruction of infrastructure. This study aimed to quantify indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations globally and explore differential effects by armed conflict characteristics and population groups.MethodsWe included 193 countries between 1990 and 2017 and constructed fixed effects panel regression models using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Global Burden of Disease study. Mortality rates were corrected to exclude battle-related deaths. We assessed separately four different armed conflict variables (capturing binary, continuous, categorical, and quintile exposures) and ran models by cause-specific mortality stratified by age groups and sex. Post-estimation analyses calculated the number of civilian deaths.ResultsWe identified 1118 unique armed conflicts. Armed conflict was associated with increases in civilian mortality-driven by conflicts categorised as wars. Wars were associated with an increase in age-standardised all-cause mortality of 81.5 per 100,000 population (β 81.5, 95% CI 14.3-148.8) in adjusted models contributing 29.4 million civilian deaths (95% CI 22.1-36.6) globally over the study period. Mortality rates from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (β 51.3, 95% CI 2.6-99.9); non-communicable diseases (β 22.7, 95% CI 0.2-45.2); and injuries (β 7.6, 95% CI 3.4-11.7) associated with war increased, contributing 21.0 million (95% CI 16.3-25.6), 6.0 million (95% CI 4.1-8.0), and 2.4 million deaths (95% CI 1.7-3.1) respectively. War-associated increases in all-cause and cause-specific mortality were found across all age groups and both genders, but children aged 0-5 years had the largest relative increases in mortality.ConclusionsArmed conflict, particularly war, is associated with a substantial indirect mortality impact among civilians globally with children most severely burdened.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough item response theory (IRT) appears to be increasingly used within health care research in general, a comprehensive overview of the frequency and characteristics of IRT analyses within the rheumatic field is lacking. An overview of the use and application of IRT in rheumatology to date may give insight into future research directions and highlight new possibilities for the improvement of outcome assessment in rheumatic conditions. Therefore, this study systematically reviewed the application of IRT to patient-reported and clinical outcome measures in rheumatology.MethodsLiterature searches in PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science resulted in 99 original English-language articles which used some form of IRT-based analysis of patient-reported or clinical outcome data in patients with a rheumatic condition. Both general study information and IRT-specific information were assessed.ResultsMost studies used Rasch modeling for developing or evaluating new or existing patient-reported outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis or osteoarthritis patients. Outcomes of principle interest were physical functioning and quality of life. Since the last decade, IRT has also been applied to clinical measures more frequently. IRT was mostly used for evaluating model fit, unidimensionality and differential item functioning, the distribution of items and persons along the underlying scale, and reliability. Less frequently used IRT applications were the evaluation of local independence, the threshold ordering of items, and the measurement precision along the scale.ConclusionIRT applications have markedly increased within rheumatology over the past decades. To date, IRT has primarily been applied to patient-reported outcomes, however, applications to clinical measures are gaining interest. Useful IRT applications not yet widely used within rheumatology include the cross-calibration of instrument scores and the development of computerized adaptive tests which may reduce the measurement burden for both the patient and the clinician. Also, the measurement precision of outcome measures along the scale was only evaluated occasionally. Performed IRT analyses should be adequately explained, justified, and reported. A global consensus about uniform guidelines should be reached concerning the minimum number of assumptions which should be met and best ways of testing these assumptions, in order to stimulate the quality appraisal of performed IRT analyses.

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Estimating the Number of Civilian Casualties in Modern Armed Conflicts–A Systematic Review

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