Estimating the Number of Civilian Casualties in Modern Armed Conflicts–A Systematic Review
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SUBMITTER: Khorram-Manesh A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8581199 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundArmed conflict can indirectly affect population health through detrimental impacts on political and social institutions and destruction of infrastructure. This study aimed to quantify indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations globally and explore differential effects by armed conflict characteristics and population groups.MethodsWe included 193 countries between 1990 and 2017 and constructed fixed effects panel regression models using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Global Burden of Disease study. Mortality rates were corrected to exclude battle-related deaths. We assessed separately four different armed conflict variables (capturing binary, continuous, categorical, and quintile exposures) and ran models by cause-specific mortality stratified by age groups and sex. Post-estimation analyses calculated the number of civilian deaths.ResultsWe identified 1118 unique armed conflicts. Armed conflict was associated with increases in civilian mortality-driven by conflicts categorised as wars. Wars were associated with an increase in age-standardised all-cause mortality of 81.5 per 100,000 population (β 81.5, 95% CI 14.3-148.8) in adjusted models contributing 29.4 million civilian deaths (95% CI 22.1-36.6) globally over the study period. Mortality rates from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (β 51.3, 95% CI 2.6-99.9); non-communicable diseases (β 22.7, 95% CI 0.2-45.2); and injuries (β 7.6, 95% CI 3.4-11.7) associated with war increased, contributing 21.0 million (95% CI 16.3-25.6), 6.0 million (95% CI 4.1-8.0), and 2.4 million deaths (95% CI 1.7-3.1) respectively. War-associated increases in all-cause and cause-specific mortality were found across all age groups and both genders, but children aged 0-5 years had the largest relative increases in mortality.ConclusionsArmed conflict, particularly war, is associated with a substantial indirect mortality impact among civilians globally with children most severely burdened.
| S-EPMC7487992 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo assess whether speed cameras reduce road traffic collisions and related casualties.DesignSystematic review.Data sourcesCochrane Injuries Group Specialised Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Medline, Embase, Social Science Citation Index, TRANSPORT database, ZETOC, the internet (including websites of road safety and motoring organisations), and contact with key individuals and organisations.Main outcome measuresRoad traffic collisions, injuries, and deaths.Inclusion criteriaControlled trials and observational studies assessing the impact of fixed or mobile speed cameras on any of the selected outcomes.Results14 observational studies met the inclusion criteria; no randomised controlled trials were found. Most studies were before-after studies without controls (n = 8). All but one of the studies showed effectiveness of cameras up to three years or less after their introduction; one study showed sustained longer term effects (4.6 years after introduction). Reductions in outcomes across studies ranged from 5% to 69% for collisions, 12% to 65% for injuries, and 17% to 71% for deaths in the immediate vicinity of camera sites. The reductions over wider geographical areas were of a similar order of magnitude.ConclusionsExisting research consistently shows that speed cameras are an effective intervention in reducing road traffic collisions and related casualties. The level of evidence is relatively poor, however, as most studies did not have satisfactory comparison groups or adequate control for potential confounders. Controlled introduction of speed cameras with careful data collection may offer improved evidence of their effectiveness in the future.
| S-EPMC548724 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo systematically evaluate the prevalence of disclosed and undisclosed financial conflicts of interest (FCOI) among clinical practice guidelines (CPGs).MethodsIn this systematic review, we ascertained the prevalence and types of FCOI for CPGs from January 1, 1980, to March 3, 2019. The primary outcome was the prevalence of FCOI among authors of CPGs. FCOI disclosures were compared between medical subspecialties and societies producing CPGs.ResultsAmong the 37 studies including 14,764 total guideline authors, 45% had at least one FCOI. The prevalence of FCOI per study ranged from 6% to 100%. More authors had FCOI involving general payments (39%) compared with research payments (29%). Oncology, neurology, and gastroenterology had the highest prevalence of FCOI compared with other medical specialties. Among the 8 studies that included the monetary values in US dollars of FCOI, average payments per author ranged from $578 to $242,300. Among the 10 studies that included data on undisclosed FCOI, 32% of authors had undisclosed industry payments.ConclusionThere are numerous FCOI among authors of CPGs, many of which are undisclosed. Our study found a significant difference in FCOI prevalence based on types of FCOI and CPG sponsor society. Additional research is required to quantify the implications of FCOI on clinical judgment and patient care.
| S-EPMC8105509 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To explore conflicts of interest (COI) and their reporting in systematic reviews of psychological therapies, and to evaluate spin in the conclusions of the reviews.MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases were searched for systematic reviews published between 2010 and 2013 that assessed effects of psychological therapies for anxiety, depressive or personality disorders, and included at least one randomised controlled trial. Required COI disclosure by journal, disclosed COI by review authors, and the inclusion of own primary studies by review authors were extracted. Researcher allegiance, that is, that researchers concluded favourably about the interventions they have studied, as well as spin, that is, differences between results and conclusions of the reviews, were rated by 2 independent raters.936 references were retrieved, 95 reviews fulfilled eligibility criteria. 59 compared psychological therapies with other forms of psychological therapies, and 36 psychological therapies with pharmacological interventions. Financial, non-financial, and personal COI were disclosed in 22, 4 and 1 review, respectively. 2 of 86 own primary studies of review authors included in 34 reviews were disclosed by review authors. In 15 of the reviews, authors showed an allegiance effect to the evaluated psychological therapy that was never disclosed. Spin in review conclusions was found in 27 of 95 reviews. Reviews with a conclusion in favour of psychological therapies (vs pharmacological interventions) were at high risk for a spin in conclusions (OR=8.31 (1.41 to 49.05)). Spin was related in trend to the inclusion of own primary studies in the systematic review (OR=2.08 (CI 0.83 to 5.18) p=0.11) and researcher allegiance (OR=2.63 (0.84 to 8.16) p=0.16).Non-financial COI, especially the inclusion of own primary studies into reviews and researcher allegiance, are frequently seen in systematic reviews of psychological therapies and need more transparency and better management.
| S-EPMC4853969 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundAlthough item response theory (IRT) appears to be increasingly used within health care research in general, a comprehensive overview of the frequency and characteristics of IRT analyses within the rheumatic field is lacking. An overview of the use and application of IRT in rheumatology to date may give insight into future research directions and highlight new possibilities for the improvement of outcome assessment in rheumatic conditions. Therefore, this study systematically reviewed the application of IRT to patient-reported and clinical outcome measures in rheumatology.MethodsLiterature searches in PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science resulted in 99 original English-language articles which used some form of IRT-based analysis of patient-reported or clinical outcome data in patients with a rheumatic condition. Both general study information and IRT-specific information were assessed.ResultsMost studies used Rasch modeling for developing or evaluating new or existing patient-reported outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis or osteoarthritis patients. Outcomes of principle interest were physical functioning and quality of life. Since the last decade, IRT has also been applied to clinical measures more frequently. IRT was mostly used for evaluating model fit, unidimensionality and differential item functioning, the distribution of items and persons along the underlying scale, and reliability. Less frequently used IRT applications were the evaluation of local independence, the threshold ordering of items, and the measurement precision along the scale.ConclusionIRT applications have markedly increased within rheumatology over the past decades. To date, IRT has primarily been applied to patient-reported outcomes, however, applications to clinical measures are gaining interest. Useful IRT applications not yet widely used within rheumatology include the cross-calibration of instrument scores and the development of computerized adaptive tests which may reduce the measurement burden for both the patient and the clinician. Also, the measurement precision of outcome measures along the scale was only evaluated occasionally. Performed IRT analyses should be adequately explained, justified, and reported. A global consensus about uniform guidelines should be reached concerning the minimum number of assumptions which should be met and best ways of testing these assumptions, in order to stimulate the quality appraisal of performed IRT analyses.
| S-EPMC3517453 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCivilian explosion blast injury is more frequent in developing countries, including China. However, the incidence, casualties, and characteristics of such incidents in China are unknown.MethodsThis is a retrospective analysis of the State Administration of Work Safety database. Incidents during a period from January 1, 2000 to April 30, 2017 were included in the analysis. The explosions were classified based on the number of deaths into extraordinarily major, major, serious and ordinary type. Descriptive statistics was used to analyze the incidence and characteristics of the explosions. Correlation analysis was performed to examine the potential correlations among various variables.ResultsData base search identified a total of 2098 explosions from 2000 to 2017, with 29,579 casualties: 15,788 deaths (53.4%), 12,637 injured (42.7%) and 1154 missing (3.9%). Majority of the explosions were serious type (65.4%). The number of deaths (39.5%) was also highest with the serious type (P?=?0.006). The highest incidence was observed in the fourth quarter of the year (October to December), and at 9:00-11:00?am and 4:00-6:00?pm of the day. The explosions were most frequent in coal-producing provinces (Guizhou and Shanxi Province). Coal mine gas explosions resulted majority of the deaths (9620, 60.9%). The number of explosion accidents closely correlated with economic output (regional economy and national GDP growth rate) (r?=?-?0.372, P?=?0.040; r?=?0.629, P?=?0.028).ConclusionsThe incidence and civilian casualties due to explosions remain unacceptabe in developing China. Measures that mitigate the risk factors are of urgently required.
| S-EPMC7288536 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundArmed conflicts affect more than one in 10 children globally. While there is a large literature on mental health, the effects of armed conflict on children's physical health and development are not well understood. This systematic review summarizes the current and past knowledge on the effects of armed conflict on child health and development.MethodsA systematic review was performed with searches in major and regional databases for papers published 1 January 1945 to 25 April 2017. Included studies provided data on physical and/or developmental outcomes associated with armed conflict in children under 18 years. Data were extracted on health outcomes, displacement, social isolation, experience of violence, orphan status, and access to basic needs. The review is registered with PROSPERO: CRD42017036425.FindingsAmong 17,679 publications screened, 155 were eligible for inclusion. Nearly half of the 131 quantitative studies were case reports, chart or registry reviews, and one-third were cross-sectional studies. Additionally, 18 qualitative and 6 mixed-methods studies were included. The papers describe mortality, injuries, illnesses, environmental exposures, limitations in access to health care and education, and the experience of violence, including torture and sexual violence. Studies also described conflict-related social changes affecting child health. The geographical coverage of the literature is limited. Data on the effects of conflict on child development are scarce.InterpretationThe available data document the pervasive effect of conflict as a form of violence against children and a negative social determinant of child health. There is an urgent need for research on the mechanisms by which conflict affects child health and development and the relationship between physical health, mental health, and social conditions. Particular priority should be given to studies on child development, the long term effects of exposure to conflict, and protective and mitigating factors against the harmful effects of armed conflict on children.
| S-EPMC6334973 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background. Tobacco companies have actively promoted the substitution of cigarettes with purportedly safer tobacco products (e.g., smokeless tobacco, e-cigarettes) as tobacco harm reduction (THR). Given the tobacco, e-cigarette, and pharmaceutical industries' substantial financial interests, we quantified industry influence on support for THR. Objectives. To analyze a comprehensive set of articles published in peer-reviewed journals assessing funding sources and support for or opposition to substitution of tobacco or nicotine products as harm reduction. Search Methods. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and PsycINFO with a comprehensive search string including all articles, comments, and editorials published between January 1, 1992, and July 26, 2016. Selection Criteria. We included English-language publications published in peer-reviewed journals addressing THR in humans and excluded studies on modified cigarettes, on South Asian smokeless tobacco variants, on pregnant women, on animals, not mentioning a tobacco or nicotine product, on US Food and Drug Administration-approved nicotine replacement therapies, and on nicotine vaccines. Data Collection and Analysis. We double-coded all articles for article type; primary product type (e.g., snus, e-cigarettes); themes for and against THR; stance on THR; THR concepts; funding or affiliation with tobacco, e-cigarette, pharmaceutical industry, or multiple industries; and each author's country. We fit exact logistic regression models with stance on THR as the outcome (pro- vs anti-THR) and source of funding or industry affiliation as the predictor taking into account sparse data. Additional models included article type as the outcome (nonempirical or empirical) and industry funding or affiliation as predictor, and stratified analyses for empirical and nonempirical studies with stance on THR as outcome and funding source as predictor. Main Results. Searches retrieved 826 articles, including nonempirical articles (21%), letters or commentaries (34%), editorials (5%), cross-sectional studies (15%), systematic reviews and meta-analyses (3%), and randomized controlled trials (2%). Overall, 23.9% disclosed support by industry; 49% of articles endorsed THR, 42% opposed it, and 9% took neutral or mixed positions. Support from the e-cigarette industry (odds ratio [OR]?=?20.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]?=?5.3, 180.7), tobacco industry (OR?=?59.4; 95% CI?=?10.1, +infinity), or pharmaceutical industry (OR?=?2.18; 95% CI?=?1.3, 3.7) was significantly associated with supportive stance on THR in analyses accounting for sparse data. Authors' Conclusions. Non-industry-funded articles were evenly divided in stance, while industry-funded articles favored THR. Because of their quantity, letters and comments may influence perceptions of THR when empirical studies lack consensus. Public Health Implications. Public health practitioners and researchers need to account for industry funding when interpreting the evidence in THR debates.
| S-EPMC6603486 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlthough mandatory laparotomy has been standard of care for patients with abdominal gunshot wounds (GSWs) for decades, this approach is associated with non-therapeutic operations, morbidity, and long hospital stays. This systematic review and meta-analysis sought to summarize outcomes of selective nonoperative management (SNOM) of civilian abdominal GSWs.MethodsWe searched electronic databases (March 1966-April 1, 2017) and reference lists of articles included in the systematic review for studies reporting outcomes of SNOM of civilian abdominal GSWs. We meta-analyzed the associated risks of SNOM-related failure (defined as laparotomy during hospital admission), mortality, and morbidity across included studies using DerSimonian and Laird random-effects models. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed by calculating I 2 statistics and conducting tests of homogeneity.ResultsOf 7155 citations identified, we included 41 studies [n?=?22,847 patients with abdominal GSWs, of whom 6777 (29.7%) underwent SNOM]. The pooled risk of failure of SNOM in hemodynamically stable patients without a reduced level of consciousness or signs of peritonitis was 7.0% [95% confidence interval (CI)?=?3.9-10.1%; I 2 =?92.6%, homogeneity p?<?0.001] while the pooled mortality associated with use of SNOM in this patient population was 0.4% (95% CI?=?0.2-0.6%; I 2 =?0%, homogeneity p?>?0.99). In patients who failed SNOM, the pooled estimate of the risk of therapeutic laparotomy was 68.0% (95% CI?=?58.3-77.7%; I 2 =?91.5%; homogeneity p?<?0.001). Risks of failure of SNOM were lowest in studies that evaluated patients with right thoracoabdomen (3.4%; 95% CI?=?0-7.0%; I 2 =?0%; homogeneity p?=?0.45), flank (7.0%; 95% CI?=?3.9-10.1%), and back (3.1%; 95% CI?=?0-6.5%) GSWs and highest in those that evaluated patients with anterior abdomen (13.2%; 95% CI?=?6.3-20.1%) GSWs. In patients who underwent mandatory abdominopelvic computed tomography (CT), the pooled risk of failure was 4.1% versus 8.3% in those who underwent selective CT (p?=?0.08). The overall sample-size-weighted mean hospital length of stay among patients who underwent SNOM was 6 days versus 10 days if they failed SNOM or developed an in-hospital complication.ConclusionsSNOM of abdominal GSWs is safe when conducted in hemodynamically stable patients without a reduced level of consciousness or signs of peritonitis. Failure of SNOM may be lower in patients with GSWs to the back, flank, or right thoracoabdomen and be decreased by mandatory use of abdominopelvic CT scans.
| S-EPMC6260713 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Accurate estimates of the burden of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are needed to establish the magnitude of this global threat in terms of both health and cost, and to paramaterise cost-effectiveness evaluations of interventions aiming to tackle the problem. This review aimed to establish the alternative methodologies used in estimating AMR burden in order to appraise the current evidence base.MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, EconLit, PubMed and grey literature were searched. English language studies evaluating the impact of AMR (from any microbe) on patient, payer/provider and economic burden published between January 2013 and December 2015 were included. Independent screening of title/abstracts followed by full texts was performed using pre-specified criteria. A study quality score (from zero to one) was derived using Newcastle-Ottawa and Philips checklists. Extracted study data were used to compare study method and resulting burden estimate, according to perspective. Monetary costs were converted into 2013 USD.Out of 5187 unique retrievals, 214 studies were included. One hundred eighty-seven studies estimated patient health, 75 studies estimated payer/provider and 11 studies estimated economic burden. 64% of included studies were single centre. The majority of studies estimating patient or provider/payer burden used regression techniques. 48% of studies estimating mortality burden found a significant impact from resistance, excess healthcare system costs ranged from non-significance to $1 billion per year, whilst economic burden ranged from $21,832 per case to over $3 trillion in GDP loss. Median quality scores (interquartile range) for patient, payer/provider and economic burden studies were 0.67 (0.56-0.67), 0.56 (0.46-0.67) and 0.53 (0.44-0.60) respectively.This study highlights what methodological assumptions and biases can occur dependent on chosen outcome and perspective. Currently, there is considerable variability in burden estimates, which can lead in-turn to inaccurate intervention evaluations and poor policy/investment decisions. Future research should utilise the recommendations presented in this review.This systematic review is registered with PROSPERO (PROSPERO CRD42016037510).
| S-EPMC5918775 | biostudies-other