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Spatio-temporal modelling of changes in air pollution exposure associated to the COVID-19 lockdown measures across Europe

ABSTRACT: The lockdown and related measures implemented by many European countries to stop the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) pandemic have altered the economic activities and road transport in many cities. To rigorously evaluate how these measures have affected air quality in Europe, we developed Bayesian spatio-temporal (BST) models that assess changes in the surface nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration across the continent. We fitted BST models to measurements of the two pollutants in 2020 using a lockdown indicator covariate, while accounting for the spatial and temporal correlation present in the data. Since other factors, such as weather conditions, local combustion sources and/or land surface characteristics may contribute to the variation of pollutant concentrations, we proposed two model formulations that allowed the differentiation between the variations in pollutant concentrations due to seasonality from the variations associated to the lockdown policies. The first model compares the changes in 2020, with the ones during the same period in the previous five years, by introducing an offset term, which controls for the long-term average concentrations of each pollutant during 2014–2019. The second approach models only the 2020 data, but adjusts for confounding factors. The results indicated that the latter can better capture the lockdown effect. The measures taken to tackle the virus in Europe reduced the average surface concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 by 29.5% (95% Bayesian credible interval: 28.1%, 30.9%) and 25.9% (23.6%, 28.1%), respectively. To our knowledge, this research is the first to account for the spatio-temporal correlation present in the monitoring data during the pandemic and to assess how it affects estimation of the lockdown effect while accounting for confounding. The proposed methodology improves our understanding of the effect of COVID-19 lockdown policies on the air pollution burden across the continent. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image

SUBMITTER: Beloconi A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8585527 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Mounting evidence over the past several decades has demonstrated inequitable distribution of pollutants of ambient origin between sociodemographic groups in the United States. Most environmental inequality studies to date are cross-sectional and used proximity-based methods rather than modeled air pollution concentrations, limiting the ability to examine trends over time or the factors that drive exposure inequalities. In this paper, we use 1km2 modeled PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations in Massachusetts over an 8-year period and Census demographic data to quantify inequality between sociodemographic groups and to develop a more nuanced understanding of the drivers and trends in longitudinal air pollution inequality. Annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations were highest for urban non-Hispanic black populations (11.8µg/m3 in 2003 and 8.4µg/m3 in 2010, vs. 11.3µg/m3 and 8.1µg/m3 for urban non-Hispanic whites) and urban Hispanic populations (15.9 ppb in 2005 and 13.0 ppb in 2010, vs. 13.0 ppb and 10.2 ppb for urban non-Hispanic whites), respectively. While population groups experienced similar absolute decreases in exposure over time, disparities in population-weighted concentrations increased over time when quantified by the Atkinson Index, a relative inequality measure. Exposure inequalities were approximately one order of magnitude greater for NO2 compared to PM2.5, were more pronounced in urban compared to rural geographies, and between racial/ethnic groups compared to income and educational attainment groups. Our results also revealed similar longitudinal PM2.5 and NO2 inequality trends using Census 2000 and Census 2010 data, indicating that spatio-temporal shifts in air pollution may best explain observed trends in inequality. These findings enhance our understanding of factors that contribute to persistent inequalities and underscore the importance of targeted exposure reduction strategies aimed at vulnerable populations and neighborhoods.

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Spatio-temporal modelling of changes in air pollution exposure associated to the COVID-19 lockdown measures across Europe

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