Dataset Information

Measuring vaccine efficacy against infection and disease in clinical trials: sources and magnitude of bias in COVID-19 vaccine efficacy estimates

ABSTRACT: Abstract

Background

Phase III trials have estimated COVID-19 vaccine efficacy (VE) against symptomatic and asymptomatic infection. We explore the direction and magnitude of potential biases in these estimates and their implications for vaccine protection against infection and against disease in breakthrough infections.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model that accounts for natural and vaccine-induced immunity, changes in serostatus and imperfect sensitivity and specificity of tests for infection and antibodies. We estimated expected biases in VE against symptomatic, asymptomatic and any SARS͏CoV2 infections and against disease following infection for a range of vaccine characteristics and measurement approaches, and the likely overall biases for published trial results that included asymptomatic infections.

Results

VE against asymptomatic infection measured by PCR or serology is expected to be low or negative for vaccines that prevent disease but not infection. VE against any infection is overestimated when asymptomatic infections are less likely to be detected than symptomatic infections and the vaccine protects against symptom development. A competing bias towards underestimation arises for estimates based on tests with imperfect specificity, especially when testing is performed frequently. Our model indicates considerable uncertainty in Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 and Janssen Ad26.COV2.S VE against any infection, with slightly higher than published, bias-adjusted values of 59.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38.4 to 77.1) and 70.9% (95% UI 49.8 to 80.7) respectively.

Conclusions

Multiple biases are likely to influence COVID-19 VE estimates, potentially explaining the observed difference between ChAdOx1 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines. These biases should be considered when interpreting both efficacy and effectiveness study results.

SUBMITTER: Williams L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8586723 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundInfection with human papillomavirus (HPV) and diseases caused by HPV are common in boys and men. We report on the safety of a quadrivalent vaccine (active against HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18) and on its efficacy in preventing the development of external genital lesions and anogenital HPV infection in boys and men.MethodsWe enrolled 4065 healthy boys and men 16 to 26 years of age, from 18 countries in a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial. The primary efficacy objective was to show that the quadrivalent HPV vaccine reduced the incidence of external genital lesions related to HPV-6, 11, 16, or 18. Efficacy analyses were conducted in a per-protocol population, in which subjects received all three vaccinations and were negative for relevant HPV types at enrollment, and in an intention-to-treat population, in which subjects received vaccine or placebo, regardless of baseline HPV status.ResultsIn the intention-to-treat population, 36 external genital lesions were seen in the vaccine group as compared with 89 in the placebo group, for an observed efficacy of 60.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40.8 to 73.8); the efficacy was 65.5% (95% CI, 45.8 to 78.6) for lesions related to HPV-6, 11, 16, or 18. In the per-protocol population, efficacy against lesions related to HPV-6, 11, 16, or 18 was 90.4% (95% CI, 69.2 to 98.1). Efficacy with respect to persistent infection with HPV-6, 11, 16, or 18 and detection of related DNA at any time was 47.8% (95% CI, 36.0 to 57.6) and 27.1% (95% CI, 16.6 to 36.3), respectively, in the intention-to-treat population and 85.6% (97.5% CI, 73.4 to 92.9) and 44.7% (95% CI, 31.5 to 55.6) in the per-protocol population. Injection-site pain was significantly more frequent among subjects receiving quadrivalent HPV vaccine than among those receiving placebo (57% vs. 51%, P<0.001).ConclusionsQuadrivalent HPV vaccine prevents infection with HPV-6, 11, 16, and 18 and the development of related external genital lesions in males 16 to 26 years of age. (Funded by Merck and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00090285.).