Value of addition of coronary artery calcium to risk scores in the prediction of major cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes
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ABSTRACT: Background
The increased risk for cardiovascular events in diabetics is heterogeneous and contemporary clinical risk score calculators have limited predictive value. We therefore examined the additional value of coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in outcome prediction in type 2 diabetics without clinical coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods
The study examined a population-based cohort of type 2 diabetics (n = 735) aged 55–74 years, recruited between 2006 and 2008. Patients had at least one additional risk factor and no history or symptoms of CAD. Risk assessment tools included Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) 10-year risk score calculators and CACS. The occurrence of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke or cardiovascular death (MACE) was assessed over 10-years. Results
Risk score calculators predicted MACE and MI and cardiovascular death individually but not stroke. Increasing levels of CACS predicted MACE and its components independently of clinical risk scores, glycated hemoglobin and other baseline variables: hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) 2.92 (1.06–7.86), 6.53 (2.47–17.29) and 8.3 (3.28–21) for CACS of 1–100, 101–300 and > 300 Agatston units respectively, compared to CACS = 0. Addition of CACS to PCE improved discrimination of MACE [AUC of PCE 0.615 (0.555–0.676) versus PCE + CACS 0.696 (0.642–0.749); p = 0.0024]. Coronary artery calcium was absent in 24% of the study population and was associated with very low event rates even in those with high estimated risk scores. Conclusions
CACS in asymptomatic type 2 diabetics provides additional prognostic information beyond that obtained from clinical risk scores alone leading to better discrimination between risk categories. Supplementary Information
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-021-02352-4.
SUBMITTER: Zafrir B
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8590310 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundCoronary artery disease (CAD) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) are the leading causes of death in the general population, but risk stratification remains suboptimal. CAD genetic risk scores (GRSs) predict risk independently from clinical tools, like QRISK3. We assessed the added value of GRSs for a variety of cardiovascular traits (CV GRSs) for predicting CAD and MACE and tested their early-life screening potential by comparing against the CAD GRS only.MethodsWe used data from 379 581 participants in the UK Biobank without known cardiovascular conditions (follow-up, 11.3 years; 3.3% CAD cases and 5.2% MACE cases). In a training subset (50%) we built 3 scores: QRISK3; QRISK3 and an established CAD GRS; and QRISK3, the CAD GRS and the CV GRSs. In an independent subset (50%), we evaluated each score's performance using the concordance index, odds ratio and net reclassification index. We then repeated the analyses without considering QRISK3.ResultsFor CAD, the combination of QRISK3 and the CAD GRS had a better performance than QRISK3 alone (concordance index, 0.766 versus 0.753; odds ratio, 5.47 versus 4.82; net reclassification index, 7.7%). Adding the CV GRSs did not significantly improve risk stratification. When only looking at genetic information, the combination of CV GRSs and the CAD GRS had a better performance than the CAD GRS alone (concordance index, 0.637 versus 0.625; odds ratio, 2.17 versus 2.07; net reclassification index, 3.3%). Similar results were obtained for MACE.ConclusionsIn individuals without known cardiovascular disease, the inclusion of CV GRSs to a clinical tool and an established CAD GRS does not improve CAD or MACE risk stratification. However, their combination only with the CAD GRS increases prediction performance indicating potential use in early-life screening before the advanced development of conventional cardiovascular risk factors.
| S-EPMC9584057 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThis study compared risk discrimination for the prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths for the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE), the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) Risk Score (with and without coronary artery calcium [CAC]), and of simple addition of CAC to the PCE.BackgroundThe PCE predict 10-year risk of atherosclerotic CVD events, and the MESA Risk Score predicts risk of CHD. Their comparative performance for the prediction of fatal events is poorly understood.MethodsWe evaluated 53,487 patients ages 45 to 79 years from the CAC Consortium, a retrospective cohort study of asymptomatic individuals referred for clinical CAC scoring. Risk discrimination was measured using C-statistics.ResultsMean age was 57 years, 35% were women, and 39% had CAC of 0. There were 421 CHD and 775 CVD deaths over a mean 12-year follow-up. In the overall study population, discrimination with the MESA Risk Score with CAC and the PCE was almost identical for both outcomes (C-statistics: 0.80 and 0.79 for CHD death, 0.77 and 0.78 for CVD death, respectively). Addition of CAC to the PCE improved risk discrimination, yielding the largest C-statistics. The MESA Risk Score with CAC and the PCE plus CAC showed the best discrimination among the 45% of patients with 5% to 20% estimated risk. Secondary analyses by estimated CVD risk strata showed modestly improved risk discrimination with CAC also among low- and high-estimated risk groups.ConclusionsOur findings support the current guideline recommendation to use, among available risk scores, the PCE for initial risk assessment and to use CAC for further risk assessment in a broad borderline and intermediate risk group. Also, in select individuals at low or high estimated risk, CAC modestly improved discrimination. Studies in unselected populations will lead to further understanding of the potential value of tools combining risk scores and CAC for optimal risk assessment.
| S-EPMC7343587 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES:This study assessed the utility of the pooled cohort equation (PCE) and/or coronary artery calcium (CAC) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk assessment in smokers, especially those who were lung cancer screening eligible (LCSE). BACKGROUND:The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommended and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services currently pays for annual screening for lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography scans in a specified group of cigarette smokers. CAC can be obtained from these low-dose scans. The incremental utility of CAC for ASCVD risk stratification remains unclear in this high-risk group. METHODS:Of 6,814 MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) participants, 3,356 (49.2% of total cohort) were smokers (2,476 former and 880 current), and 14.3% were LCSE. Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazards, area under the curve, and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analyses were used to assess the association between PCE and/or CAC and incident ASCVD. Incident ASCVD was defined as coronary death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or fatal or nonfatal stroke. RESULTS:Smokers had a mean age of 62.1 years, 43.5% were female, and all had a mean of 23.0 pack-years of smoking. The LCSE sample had a mean age of 65.3 years, 39.1% were female, and all had a mean of 56.7 pack-years of smoking. After a mean of 11.1 years of follow-up 13.4% of all smokers and 20.8% of LCSE smokers had ASCVD events; 6.7% of all smokers and 14.2% of LCSE smokers with CAC = 0 had an ASCVD event during the follow-up. One SD increase in the PCE 10-year risk was associated with a 68% increase risk for ASCVD events in all smokers (hazard ratio: 1.68; 95% confidence interval: 1.57 to 1.80) and a 22% increase in risk for ASCVD events in the LCSE smokers (hazard ratio: 1.22; 95% confidence interval: 1.00 to 1.47). CAC was associated with increased ASCVD risk in all smokers and in LCSE smokers in all the Cox models. The C-statistic of the PCE for ASCVD was higher in all smokers compared with LCSE smokers (0.693 vs. 0.545). CAC significantly improved the C-statistics of the PCE in all smokers but not in LCSE smokers. The event and nonevent net reclassification improvements for all smokers and LCSE smokers were 0.018 and -0.126 versus 0.16 and -0.196, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:In this well-characterized, multiethnic U.S. cohort, CAC was predictive of ASCVD in all smokers and in LCSE smokers but modestly improved discrimination over and beyond the PCE. However, 6.7% of all smokers and 14.2% of LCSE smokers with CAC = 0 had an ASCVD event during follow-up.
| S-EPMC6085167 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES:To investigate the association between directly measured density and morphology of coronary artery calcium (CAC) with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, using computed tomography (CT). METHODS:Framingham Heart Study (FHS) participants with CAC in noncontrast cardiac CT (2002-2005) were included and followed until 2016. Participants with known CVD or uninterpretable CT scans were excluded. We assessed and correlated (Spearman) CAC density, CAC volume, and the number of calcified segments. Moreover, we counted morphology features including shape (cylindrical, spherical, semi-tubular, and spotty), location (bifurcation, facing pericardium, or facing myocardium), and boundary regularity. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, we associated all CAC characteristics with CVD events (CVD-death, myocardial infarction, stroke). RESULTS:Among 1330 included participants (57.8?±?11.7 years; 63% male), 73 (5.5%) experienced CVD events in a median follow-up of 9.1 (7.8-10.1) years. CAC density correlated strongly with CAC volume (Spearman's ??=?0.75; p?<?0.001) and lower number of calcified segments (??=?-?0.86; p?<?0.001; controlled for CAC volume). In the survival analysis, CAC density was associated with CVD events independent of Framingham risk score (HR (per SD)?=?2.09; 95%CI, 1.30-3.34; p?=?0.002) but not after adjustment for CAC volume (p?=?0.648). The extent of spherically shaped and pericardially sided calcifications was associated with fewer CVD events accounting for the number of calcified segments (HR (per count)?=?0.55; 95%CI, 0.31-0.98; p?=?0.042 and HR?=?0.66; 95%CI, 0.45-0.98; p?=?0.039, respectively). CONCLUSIONS:Directly measured CAC density does not predict CVD events due to the strong correlation with CAC volume. The spherical shape and pericardial-sided location of CAC are associated with fewer CVD events and may represent morphological features related to stable coronary plaques. KEY POINTS:• Coronary calcium density may not be independently associated with cardiovascular events. • Coronary calcium density correlates strongly with calcium volume. • Spherical shape and pericardial-sided location of CAC are associated with fewer CVD events.
| S-EPMC7199920 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCoronary artery bypass grafting using radial artery grafts (RA-CABG) has improved long-term outcomes. However, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE-4, including all-cause death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and repeat revascularization) after RA-CABG still occur and the predictors remain uncertain. This study aimed to detect independent risk factors of MACE-4 after RA-CABG.MethodsThis is a retrospective case-control study (NCT04935086) conducted among patients who underwent primary isolated RA-CABG between 2009 and 2019 in our center. Baseline characteristics, procedure characteristics, and medication use were compared to identify the independent predictors of MACE-4, all-cause death, and myocardial infarction (MI) with univariate and then multivariate logistic regression.ResultsA total of 370 patients were analyzed using a mean follow-up duration of 48.8 ± 41.0 months. MACE-4, all-cause death, and MI occurred in 102 (27.6%), 27 (7.3%), and 66 patients (17.8%), respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed prior MI (OR = 2.12, 95%CI 1.05-4.25, P = 0.04) and RA to the left anterior descending artery (LAD) (non-left internal mammary artery to LAD) (OR = 4.87, 95%CI 1.41-16.82, P = 0.01) as independent predictors of MACE-4 after surgery. Female (OR = 4.53, 95%CI 1.06-19.41, P = 0.04), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <40% (OR = 21.00, 95%CI 1.20-368.35, P = 0.04), and RA to LAD (OR = 8.55, 95%CI 1.35-54.10, P = 0.02) were independent predictors of all-cause death. Prior MI (OR = 3.11, 95%CI 1.40-6.94, P = 0.006) emerged as an independent predictor of MI.ConclusionOur data suggested that prior MI and RA to LAD were independent predictors of MACE-4 after RA-CABG. Being female, having an LVEF < 40% and RA to LAD indicated death. Prior MI indicated new MI.
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Project description:BackgroundIn 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronary artery disease (CAD) as the leading cause of death globally for the last 20 years. Early screening and detection (primary prevention) and intervention (secondary prevention) are necessary to curb CAD and major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) prevalence. A scoping review to assess the current literature on using cardiac scoring systems to predict CAD and MACE was performed.MethodsThe research question 'What is the literature on using cardiac scoring systems to predict CAD and MACE?' was addressed. The updated Arksey and O'Malley and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews methodologies were used. The search terms 'coronary artery disease' and 'cardiac scoring systems' and 'major adverse cardiovascular events' were used in the Boolean search on PubMed, ScienceDirect, MedLine and Cochrane Library.ResultsThe final list consisted of 19 published English results after the year 2000. There were six results without participants (four clinical guidelines, one review article and one ongoing clinical trial). Scoring systems were cardiovascular risk estimation systems focusing on the primary prevention of CAD; MACE was discussed but not scored. There were 13 robust results published from completed multinational clinical trials with participants. These results focused on a scoring system for the secondary prevention of CAD and MACE.ConclusionScoring systems remain an objective method for primary and secondary prevention of CAD and MACE.Contribution: Scoring systems may be helpful with clinical uncertainty or to standardise patient results for comparison in research.
| S-EPMC10476223 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background & aimsHepatic steatosis has been associated with increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) but it is not clear whether steatosis is independently associated with risk of MACE. We investigated whether steatosis is associated with risk of MACE independently of the presence and extent of baseline coronary artery disease, assessed by comprehensive contrast-enhanced computed tomography angiography (CTA).MethodsWe conducted a nested cohort study of 3756 subjects (mean age, 60.6 years; 48.4% men) who underwent coronary CTA at 193 sites in North America, from July 2010 through September 2013, as part of the PROMISE study, which included noninvasive cardiovascular analyses of symptomatic outpatients without coronary artery disease. Independent core laboratory readers measured hepatic and splenic attenuation, using non-contrast computed tomography images to identify steatosis, and evaluated coronary plaques and stenosis in coronary CTA images. We collected data on participants' cardiovascular risk factors, presence of metabolic syndrome, and body mass index. The primary endpoint was an adjudicated composite of MACE (death, myocardial infarction, or unstable angina) during a median follow-up time of 25 months.ResultsAmong the 959 subjects who had steatosis (25.5% of the cohort), 42 had MACE (4.4%), whereas among the 2797 subjects without steatosis, 73 had MACE (2.6%) (hazard ratio [HR] for MACE in subjects with steatosis, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.16-2.48; P = .006 for MACE in subjects with vs without steatosis). This association remained after adjustment for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores, significant stenosis, and metabolic syndrome (adjusted HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.16-2.54; P = .007) or obesity (adjusted HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.19-2.59; P = .005). Steatosis remained independently associated with MACE after adjustment for all CTA measures of plaques and stenosis.ConclusionsHepatic steatosis is associated with MACE independently of other cardiovascular risk factors or extent of coronary artery disease. Strategies to reduce steatosis might reduce risk of MACE. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT01174550.
| S-EPMC7855524 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSubclinical atherosclerosis detected by increased coronary artery calcium (CAC) or arterial stiffness as reflected by cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) has been associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). However, comparative data from these two assessments in the same population are still limited.MethodsFrom 2005 to 2013, patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD), both asymptomatic and symptomatic who underwent both coronary computed tomography and CAVI were enrolled and followed for occurrence of MACEs (cardiovascular [CV] death, nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI], and nonfatal stroke) until December 2019. A cause-specific hazard model was applied to assess the associations of CAC score, and CAVI with long-term MACEs.ResultsA total of 8687 patients participated. Of them, CAC scores were 0, 1-99, 100-399, and ≥400 in 49.7%, 31.9%, 12.3%, and 6.1%, respectively. Arterial stiffness (CAVI ≥ 9.0) was associated with the magnitude of CAC in 23.8%, 36.3%, 44.5%, and 56.2%, respectively. During an average of 9.9 ± 2.4 years follow-up, MACEs occurred in 8.0% (95% CI: 7.4%, 8.6%) of subjects. After adjusting for covariables, CAC scores of 100-399 and ≥400, and CAVIs of ≥9.0 were found to independently predict the occurrence of MACEs with the hazard ratios (95% CI) of 1.70 (1.13, 1.98), 1.87 (1.33, 2.63), and 1.27 (1.06, 1.52), respectively. Other risk predictors were hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), aspirin, and statin therapy.ConclusionsA CAC score ≥100 or a CAVI ≥ 9.0 predicts the long-term occurrence of MACEs in both asymptomatic and symptomatic patients with stable CAD. These two noninvasive tests can be used as screening tools to guide treatment for the prevention of future CV events.
| S-EPMC9933115 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAbsence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) identifies asymptomatic individuals at low cardiovascular disease risk. Carotid artery plaque is a marker of increased risk, but its association with cardiovascular risk and incident CAC in people without CAC is unclear.MethodsMulti-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants with CAC score of 0 at enrollment who also underwent carotid plaque measurement using B-mode ultrasonography were prospectively followed for incident coronary heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular disease events, and CAC (score >0 on up to 3 serial computed tomography scans). The association of carotid plaque presence and plaque score (Ln[score+1]) at baseline with cardiovascular events and incident CAC was evaluated with Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for demographics, risk factors, and statin use.ResultsAmong these 2673 participants (58 years, 64% women, 34% White, 30% Black, 24% Hispanic, and 12% Chinese), carotid plaque at baseline was observed in 973 (36%) and the median plaque score (range, 1-12) among those with plaque was 1. A total of 79 coronary heart disease, 80 stroke, and 151 cardiovascular disease events were observed during 16.1 years of follow-up. Carotid plaque presence and plaque score were independently associated with coronary heart disease risk (HRs, 1.66 [95% CI, 1.04-2.66]; and 1.48 [95% CI, 1.01-2.17], respectively) but not with stroke and cardiovascular disease risk. A total of 973 (36.4%) participants developed CAC over the evaluation period (median 9.3 years). Carotid plaque presence and plaque score were independently associated with incident CAC (HRs, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.18-1.54]; and 1.37 [95% CI, 1.21-1.54]), respectively.ConclusionsThe presence and extent of carotid plaque are associated with long-term coronary heart disease risk and incident CAC among middle-aged asymptomatic individuals with an initial CAC score of 0.
| S-EPMC8058258 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimThis study explores the association between Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) scores and dental pathology such as missing teeth, the (peri-apical) health status and restoration grade of the teeth, and the grade of alveolar bone loss seen on a dental panoramic radiograph (Orthopantomograph-OPG).Materials and methodsIn this retrospective cross-sectional study, data was collected from three hospitals spread in the Netherlands. Patients were included when a CAC score and an OPG were available, both recorded within a maximum period of 365 days from 2009-2017. The CAC score was measured on a CT scan, using the Agatston method. To assess dental pathology, the number of missing teeth, the number of dental implants, alveolar bone loss, caries, endodontic treatments, peri-apical radiolucencies, bone loss at implants, impacted teeth and dental cysts, were determined on the OPG. All observers were calibrated. The electronic health records provided information about: gender, age, smoking, Diabetes Mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension and Body Mass Index (BMI).Results212 patients were included. We found a statistically significant association between the number of missing teeth and the CAC score. When modeling age, sex, and other well-known risk factors for cardiovascular disease, the significant correlation was no longer present after multivariate correction. Furthermore, the results showed a trend for more teeth with peri-apical lesions and a higher percentage of mean alveolar bone loss in the group with the highest CAC scores.ConclusionThis study showed that being edentulous or missing teeth is correlated to higher CAC scores however failed to be an independent predictor of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases. The number of (missing) teeth is an easily accessible marker and could be used as a marker for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACVD) risk by almost any healthcare worker. The current study needs to be considered as an explorative pilot study and could contribute to the design of further (prospective) studies on the relationship between dental pathology and coronary artery calcification by adding clinical information and extra cardiovascular biomarkers.
| S-EPMC7743922 | biostudies-literature