Nomogram to predict risk of incident chronic kidney disease in high-risk population of cardiovascular disease in China: community-based cohort study.
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SUBMITTER: Zhang Q
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8593715 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundTo develop a reliable model to predict rapid kidney function decline (RKFD) among population at risk of cardiovascular disease.MethodsIn this retrospective study, key monitoring residents including the elderly, and patients with hypertension or diabetes of China National Basic Public Health Service who underwent community annual physical examinations from January 2015 to December 2020 were included. Healthy records were extracted from regional chronic disease management platform. RKFD was defined as the reduction of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 40% during follow-up period. The entire cohort were randomly assigned to a development cohort and a validation cohort in a 2:1 ratio. Cox regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors. A nomogram was established based on the development cohort. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots were calculated. Decision curve analysis was applied to evaluate the clinical utility.ResultsA total of 8455 subjects were included. During the median follow-up period of 3.72 years, the incidence of RKFD was 11.96% (n = 1011), 11.98% (n = 676) and 11.92% (n = 335) in the entire cohort, development cohort and validation cohort, respectively. Age, eGFR, hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and diabetes were identified as predictors for RKFD. Good discriminating performance was observed in both the development (C-index, 0.73) and the validation (C-index, 0.71) cohorts, and the AUCs for predicting 5-years RKFD was 0.763 and 0.740 in the development and the validation cohort, respectively. Decision curve analysis further confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram.ConclusionsOur nomogram based on five readily accessible variables (age, eGFR, hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and diabetes) is a useful tool to identify high risk patients for RKFD among population at risk of cardiovascular disease in primary care. Whereas, further external validations are needed before clinical generalization.
| S-EPMC8830119 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPatients with cardiovascular disease are at an increased risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, data on incident CKD in patients with multiple vascular comorbidities are insufficient. In this study, we identified the predictors of CKD stages 3-5 in patients at risk of cardiovascular disease and used their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to construct a nomogram to predict the 5-year risk of incident CKD.MethodsAmbulatory data on 622 adults with preserved kidney function and one or more cardiovascular disease risk factors who attended outpatient clinics at a tertiary care hospital in Al-Ain, United Arab Emirates were obtained retrospectively. eGFR was calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation and assessed every 3?months from baseline to December 12, 2017. Fine and Gray competing risk regression model was used to identify the independent variables and construct a nomogram to predict incident CKD at 5?years, which is defined as eGFR <?60?mL/min/1.73?m2 for ?3?months. Time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the model. Calibration curves were applied to determine the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of death. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using K-fold cross-validation.ResultsOf the 622 patients, 71 had newly developed CKD stages 3-5 over a median follow-up of 96?months (interquartile range, 86-103?months). Baseline eGFR, hemoglobin A1c, total cholesterol, and history of diabetes mellitus were identified as significant predictors of CKD stages 3-5. The nomogram had good discrimination in predicting the disease stages, with a time-dependent AUC of 0.918 (95% confidence interval, 0.846-0.964) at 5?years, after internal validation by cross-validation.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated that incident CKD could be predicted with a simple and practical nomogram in patients at risk of cardiovascular disease and with preserved kidney function, which in turn could help clinicians make more informed decisions for CKD management in these patients.
| S-EPMC6700777 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), soluble ST2 (sST2), and high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) are emerging predictors of adverse clinical outcomes. We examined whether circulating concentrations are related to the development of kidney disease in the community. METHODS:Plasma GDF-15, sST2, and hsTnI concentrations were measured in 2614 Framingham Offspring cohort participants (mean age 57 years, 54% women) at the sixth examination cycle (1995-1998). Associations of biomarkers with incident chronic kidney disease [CKD, eGFR <60 mL · min(-1) · (1.73 m(2)) (-1), n = 276], microalbuminuria (urinary albumin to creatinine ratio ?25 mg/g in women and 17 mg/g in men, n = 191), and rapid decline in renal function [decline in eGFR ?3 mL · min(-1) · (1.73 m(2)) (-1) per year, n = 237], were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression; P < 0.006 was considered statistically significant in primary analyses. RESULTS:Participants were followed over a mean of 9.5 years. Higher plasma GDF-15 was associated with incident CKD [multivariable-adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.9 per 1-U increase in log-GDF-15, 95% CI 1.6-2.3, P < 0.0001] and rapid decline in renal function (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.3-1.8; P < 0.0001). GDF-15, sST2, and hsTnI had suggestive associations with incident microalbuminuria but did not meet the prespecified P-value threshold after multivariable adjustment. Adding plasma GDF-15 to clinical covariates improved risk prediction of incident CKD: the c-statistic increased from 0.826 to 0.845 (P = 0.0007), and categorical net reclassification was 6.3% (95% CI, 2.7-9.9%). CONCLUSIONS:Higher circulating GDF-15 is associated with incident renal outcomes and improves risk prediction of incident CKD. These findings may provide insights into the mechanisms of renal injury.
| S-EPMC3972213 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNon-traditional risk factors like inflammation and oxidative stress play an essential role in the increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prevalent in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Tryptophan catabolism by the kynurenine pathway (KP) is linked to systemic inflammation and CVD in the general and dialysis population. However, the relationship of KP to incident CVD in the CKD population is unknown.MethodsWe measured tryptophan metabolites using targeted mass spectrometry in 92 patients with a history of CVD (old CVD); 46 patients with no history of CVD and new CVD during follow-up (no CVD); and 46 patients with no CVD history who developed CVD in the median follow-up period of 2 years (incident CVD).ResultsThe three groups are well-matched in age, gender, race, diabetes status and CKD stage, and only differed in total cholesterol and proteinuria. Tryptophan and kynurenine levels significantly decreased in patients with 'Incident CVD' compared with the no CVD or old CVD groups (P = 5.2E-7; P = 0.003 respectively). Kynurenic acid, 3-hydroxykynurenine and kynurenine are all increased with worsening CKD stage (P < 0.05). An increase in tryptophan levels at baseline was associated with 0.32-fold lower odds of incident CVD (P = 0.000014) compared with the no CVD group even after adjustment for classic CVD risk factors. Addition of tryptophan and kynurenine levels to the receiver operating curve constructed from discriminant analysis predicting incident CVD using baseline clinical variables increased the area under the curve from 0.76 to 0.82 (P = 0.04).ConclusionsIn summary, our study demonstrates that low tryptophan levels are associated with incident CVD in CKD.
| S-EPMC8173620 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease share several common risk factors. The Framingham risk score is hypothesized to predict chronic kidney disease development. We determined if the Framingham risk scoring system can correctly predict incident chronic kidney disease in the general population.MethodsThis study included 9,080 subjects who participated in the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study between 2001 and 2014 and had normal renal function. The subjects were classified into low- (< 10%), intermediate- (10-20%), and high- (> 20%) risk groups based on baseline Framingham risk scores. The primary endpoint was de novo chronic kidney disease development (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2).ResultsDuring a mean follow-up duration of 8.9 ± 4.3 years, 312 (5.3%), 217 (10.8%), and 205 (16.9%) subjects developed chronic kidney disease in the low, intermediate, and high risk groups, respectively (P < 0.001). Multivariable analysis after adjustment for confounding factors showed the hazard ratios for the high- and intermediate risk groups were 2.674 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.197-3.255) and 1.734 (95% CI, 1.447-2.078), respectively. This association was consistently observed irrespective of proteinuria, age, sex, obesity, or hypertension. The predictive power of this scoring system was lower than that of renal parameters, such as eGFR and proteinuria, but increased when both were included in the prediction model.ConclusionThe Framingham risk score predicted incident chronic kidney disease and enhanced risk stratification in conjunction with traditional renal parameters in the general population with normal renal function.
| S-EPMC6481968 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveIt is not known if patients with diabetes with depression have an increased risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We examined the association between depression and incident CKD, mortality, and incident cardiovascular events in U.S. veterans with diabetes.Research design and methodsAmong a nationally representative prospective cohort of >3 million U.S. veterans with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2, we identified 933,211 patients with diabetes. Diabetes was ascertained by an ICD-9-CM code for diabetes, an HbA1c >6.4%, or receiving antidiabetes medication during the inclusion period. Depression was defined by an ICD-9-CM code for depression or by antidepressant use during the inclusion period. Incident CKD was defined as two eGFR levels <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 separated by ≥90 days and a >25% decline in baseline eGFR. The associations between depression and outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional regression.ResultsDepression was present in 340,806 patients at enrollment. Depressed patients were younger (61 ± 11 vs. 65 ± 11 years), had higher eGFR (84 ± 15 vs. 81 ± 14 mL/min/1.73 m2), but had more comorbidities. Incident CKD developed in 180,343 patients. Depression was associated with 20% higher risk of incident CKD (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] and 95% CI: 1.20 [1.19-1.21]). Similarly, depression was associated with increased all-cause mortality (aHR and 95% CI: 1.25 [1.24-1.26]).ConclusionsThe presence of depression in patients with diabetes is associated with higher risk of developing CKD compared with nondepressed patients. Intervention studies should determine if effective treatment of depression in patients with diabetes would prevent major renal and cardiovascular complications.
| S-EPMC5079613 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Importance:Early identification of individuals at elevated risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) could improve clinical care through enhanced surveillance and better management of underlying health conditions. Objective:To develop assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk of CKD, defined by reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Design, Setting, and Participants:Individual-level data analysis of 34 multinational cohorts from the CKD Prognosis Consortium including 5?222?711 individuals from 28 countries. Data were collected from April 1970 through January 2017. A 2-stage analysis was performed, with each study first analyzed individually and summarized overall using a weighted average. Because clinical variables were often differentially available by diabetes status, models were developed separately for participants with diabetes and without diabetes. Discrimination and calibration were also tested in 9 external cohorts (n?=?2?253?540). Exposures:Demographic and clinical factors. Main Outcomes and Measures:Incident eGFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Results:Among 4?441?084 participants without diabetes (mean age, 54 years, 38% women), 660?856 incident cases (14.9%) of reduced eGFR occurred during a mean follow-up of 4.2 years. Of 781?627 participants with diabetes (mean age, 62 years, 13% women), 313?646 incident cases (40%) occurred during a mean follow-up of 3.9 years. Equations for the 5-year risk of reduced eGFR included age, sex, race/ethnicity, eGFR, history of cardiovascular disease, ever smoker, hypertension, body mass index, and albuminuria concentration. For participants with diabetes, the models also included diabetes medications, hemoglobin A1c, and the interaction between the 2. The risk equations had a median C statistic for the 5-year predicted probability of 0.845 (interquartile range [IQR], 0.789-0.890) in the cohorts without diabetes and 0.801 (IQR, 0.750-0.819) in the cohorts with diabetes. Calibration analysis showed that 9 of 13 study populations (69%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Discrimination was similar in 18 study populations in 9 external validation cohorts; calibration showed that 16 of 18 (89%) had a slope of observed to predicted risk between 0.80 and 1.25. Conclusions and Relevance:Equations for predicting risk of incident chronic kidney disease developed from more than 5 million individuals from 34 multinational cohorts demonstrated high discrimination and variable calibration in diverse populations. Further study is needed to determine whether use of these equations to identify individuals at risk of developing chronic kidney disease will improve clinical care and patient outcomes.
| S-EPMC6865298 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThere is a strikingly high prevalence of sensorineural hearing loss among patients with chronic kidney disease, with estimates ranging from 36% to 77%; however, longitudinal data are limited. We assessed whether lower baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate calculated using creatinine (eGFRCr ), as well as decline in eGFRCr over time, were associated with incident hearing loss.MethodsSerum creatinine was measured in 1,843 individuals aged 48 to 80 years without hearing loss at the start of the Epidemiology of Hearing Loss Study in 1993. Follow-up creatinine assessments were conducted at 5 (n = 1,526) and 10 (n = 1,095) years. Hearing tests were conducted at baseline and at 5-, 10-, and 15-year follow-up visits. The risk of hearing loss was assessed as a function of baseline eGFRCr as well as a function of a 20% decline in eGFRCr between baseline and 5 years and between 5 and 10 years. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the risk of incident speech-frequency hearing loss, defined as pure tone average (PTA) > 25 decibels hearing loss for thresholds at 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 kHz (PTA0.5,1,2,4 ) in either ear.ResultsDuring 15,676 person-years of follow up, there were 802 cases of incident hearing loss. There was no statistically significant association between lower baseline eGFRCr and risk of incident hearing loss. Decline in eGFRCr was also not associated with incident hearing loss at speech frequencies.ConclusionOverall, there was no significant association between eGFRCr or decline in eGFRCr using the serum creatinine-based equation and risk of incident hearing loss.Level of evidence2 Laryngoscope, 130:E213-E219, 2020.
| S-EPMC6881518 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the main public health problem in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD); however, there is no established biomarker for predicting CVD morbidity and mortality in CKD. The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of circulating tumor necrosis factor receptors (cTNFRs) in predicting CVD risk in CKD patients.We prospectively recruited 984 patients with CKD from 11 centers between 2006 and 2012. The levels of cTNFR1 and cTNFR2 were determined by performing an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. During the mean follow-up period of 4 years, 36 patients experienced a CVD event. The median serum concentrations of cTNFR1 and cTNFR2 were 2703.4 (225.6-13,057.7) and 5661.0 (634.9-30,599.6)?pg/mL, respectively, and the cTNFR1 level was closely correlated with the cTNFR2 level (r?=?0.86, P?<?.0001). The urinary protein-to-creatinine ratio (UPCR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were significantly correlated with the cTNFR2 level (r?=?0.21 for UPCR, r?=?-0.67 for eGFR; P?<?.001 for all). Similar correlations were observed for serum cTNFR1 (r?=?0.21 for UPCR, r?=?-0.75 for eGFR; P?<?.001 for all). In the Cox proportional hazard analyses, cTNFR1 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.506, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.186-5.295, P?=?.016) and cTNFR2 (HR 4.156, 95% CI 1.913-9.030, P?<?.001) predicted CVD risk even after adjustment for clinical covariates, such as UPCR, eGFR, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. cTNFR1 and 2 are associated with CVD and other risk factors in CKD, independently of eGFR and UPCR. Furthermore, cTNFRs could be relevant predictors of CVD in CKD patients.
| S-EPMC5428576 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and objectivesElevated circulating fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) predicts progression of CKD, but it is unknown whether circulating FGF23 independently predicts incident CKD. This study aimed to determine whether circulating FGF23 predicts incident CKD in community-dwelling women.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsThis study examined the relationship of intact serum FGF23, 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D(3) (1,25[OH](2)D), 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D), parathyroid hormone, calcium, and phosphate with prevalent and incident CKD in 701 disabled women, ?65 years of age, from the Women's Health and Aging Study I in Baltimore, Maryland, from 1993 to 1997. Incident CKD was defined as a low estimated GFR (eGFR) <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) only, low eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) and a ?25% decline in eGFR from baseline, and an increase in serum creatinine (?0.4 mg/dl) at follow-up.ResultsAt baseline, 381 women (54.3%) had stage 3 CKD. Of 307 women without CKD at baseline, 63 (20.5%) developed stage 3 CKD over 24 months of follow-up. After excluding prevalent cases of CKD, FGF23 (per 1 SD increase) was associated with incident stage 3 CKD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.51; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.06, 2.16; P=0.02), low and declining eGFR (HR, 3.69; 95% CI, 1.68, 8.11; P=0.001), and increase in serum creatinine (HR, 5.35; 95% CI, 1.27, 22.54; P=0.02) in respective multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for baseline eGFR, age, race, phosphate, 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D(3), parathyroid hormone, and other potential confounders.ConclusionsElevated FGF23 is an independent risk factor for incident CKD in older, disabled, community-dwelling women.
| S-EPMC3265343 | biostudies-literature