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The magnitude of energy transition risk embedded in fossil fuel company valuations.

ABSTRACT: This paper examines ExxonMobil, a widely-followed, mature, large oil and gas producer using discounted cash flow valuation modeling under two scenarios: "Business as usual"; and an adequate climate policy response that would limit warming to 1.5C. The analysis across the last two decades shows the market continues to price in a "business as usual" future. ExxonMobil's overvaluation, relative to an adequate policy response scenario, has increased (pre-pandemic) from 50% to 70% of equity value at risk. Investors are taking significant energy transition risk without meaningful compensation. To avoid continued capital misallocation, negative externalities should be incorporated into underwriting.

SUBMITTER: Riedl D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8606343 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The magnitude of energy transition risk embedded in fossil fuel company valuations.

Riedl Drew D

Heliyon 20211117 11

This paper examines ExxonMobil, a widely-followed, mature, large oil and gas producer using discounted cash flow valuation modeling under two scenarios: "Business as usual"; and an adequate climate policy response that would limit warming to 1.5C. The analysis across the last two decades shows the market continues to price in a "business as usual" future. ExxonMobil's overvaluation, relative to an adequate policy response scenario, has increased (pre-pandemic) from 50% to 70% of equity value at ...[more]

PMID: 34841109

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