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Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020.

ABSTRACT: We aimed to estimate, albeit crudely and provisionally, national, regional, and global proportions of respective populations that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the first year after the introduction of this virus into human circulation, and to assess infection morbidity and mortality rates, factoring both documented and undocumented infections. The estimates were generated by applying mathematical models to 159 countries and territories. The percentage of the world's population that has been infected as of 31 December 2020 was estimated at 12.56% (95% CI: 11.17-14.05%). It was lowest in the Western Pacific Region at 0.66% (95% CI: 0.59-0.75%) and highest in the Americas at 41.92% (95% CI: 37.95-46.09%). The global infection fatality rate was 10.73 (95% CI: 10.21-11.29) per 10,000 infections. Globally per 1000 infections, the infection acute-care bed hospitalization rate was 19.22 (95% CI: 18.73-19.51), the infection ICU bed hospitalization rate was 4.14 (95% CI: 4.10-4.18). If left unchecked with no vaccination and no other public health interventions, and assuming circulation of only wild-type variants and no variants of concern, the pandemic would eventually cause 8.18 million deaths (95% CI: 7.30-9.18), 163.67 million acute-care hospitalizations (95% CI: 148.12-179.51), and 33.01 million ICU hospitalizations (95% CI: 30.52-35.70), by the time the herd immunity threshold is reached at 60-70% infection exposure. The global population remained far below the herd immunity threshold by end of 2020. Global epidemiology reveals immense regional variation in infection exposure and morbidity and mortality rates.

SUBMITTER: Ayoub HH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8609676 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceIt remains unknown whether SARS-CoV-2 infection specifically increases the risk of serious obstetric morbidity.ObjectiveTo evaluate the association of SARS-CoV-2 infection with serious maternal morbidity or mortality from common obstetric complications.Design, setting, and participantsRetrospective cohort study of 14 104 pregnant and postpartum patients delivered between March 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020 (with final follow-up to February 11, 2021), at 17 US hospitals participating in the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development's Gestational Research Assessments of COVID-19 (GRAVID) Study. All patients with SARS-CoV-2 were included and compared with those without a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result who delivered on randomly selected dates over the same period.ExposuresSARS-CoV-2 infection was based on a positive nucleic acid or antigen test result. Secondary analyses further stratified those with SARS-CoV-2 infection by disease severity.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was a composite of maternal death or serious morbidity related to hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, postpartum hemorrhage, or infection other than SARS-CoV-2. The main secondary outcome was cesarean birth.ResultsOf the 14 104 included patients (mean age, 29.7 years), 2352 patients had SARS-CoV-2 infection and 11 752 did not have a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. Compared with those without a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result, SARS-CoV-2 infection was significantly associated with the primary outcome (13.4% vs 9.2%; difference, 4.2% [95% CI, 2.8%-5.6%]; adjusted relative risk [aRR], 1.41 [95% CI, 1.23-1.61]). All 5 maternal deaths were in the SARS-CoV-2 group. SARS-CoV-2 infection was not significantly associated with cesarean birth (34.7% vs 32.4%; aRR, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.99-1.11]). Compared with those without a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result, moderate or higher COVID-19 severity (n = 586) was significantly associated with the primary outcome (26.1% vs 9.2%; difference, 16.9% [95% CI, 13.3%-20.4%]; aRR, 2.06 [95% CI, 1.73-2.46]) and the major secondary outcome of cesarean birth (45.4% vs 32.4%; difference, 12.8% [95% CI, 8.7%-16.8%]; aRR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.07-1.28]), but mild or asymptomatic infection (n = 1766) was not significantly associated with the primary outcome (9.2% vs 9.2%; difference, 0% [95% CI, -1.4% to 1.4%]; aRR, 1.11 [95% CI, 0.94-1.32]) or cesarean birth (31.2% vs 32.4%; difference, -1.4% [95% CI, -3.6% to 0.8%]; aRR, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.93-1.07]).Conclusions and relevanceAmong pregnant and postpartum individuals at 17 US hospitals, SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with an increased risk for a composite outcome of maternal mortality or serious morbidity from obstetric complications.

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Estimates of global SARS-CoV-2 infection exposure, infection morbidity, and infection mortality rates in 2020.

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