Dataset Information

Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter.

ABSTRACT: Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is a major global health concern. Quantitative estimates of attributable mortality are based on disease-specific hazard ratio models that incorporate risk information from multiple PM_2.5 sources (outdoor and indoor air pollution from use of solid fuels and secondhand and active smoking), requiring assumptions about equivalent exposure and toxicity. We relax these contentious assumptions by constructing a PM_2.5-mortality hazard ratio function based only on cohort studies of outdoor air pollution that covers the global exposure range. We modeled the shape of the association between PM_2.5 and nonaccidental mortality using data from 41 cohorts from 16 countries-the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). We then constructed GEMMs for five specific causes of death examined by the global burden of disease (GBD). The GEMM predicts 8.9 million [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.5-10.3] deaths in 2015, a figure 30% larger than that predicted by the sum of deaths among the five specific causes (6.9; 95% CI: 4.9-8.5) and 120% larger than the risk function used in the GBD (4.0; 95% CI: 3.3-4.8). Differences between the GEMM and GBD risk functions are larger for a 20% reduction in concentrations, with the GEMM predicting 220% higher excess deaths. These results suggest that PM_2.5 exposure may be related to additional causes of death than the five considered by the GBD and that incorporation of risk information from other, nonoutdoor, particle sources leads to underestimation of disease burden, especially at higher concentrations.

SUBMITTER: Burnett R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6156628 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter.

Burnett Richard R Chen Hong H Szyszkowicz Mieczysław M Fann Neal N Hubbell Bryan B Pope C Arden CA Apte Joshua S JS Brauer Michael M Cohen Aaron A Weichenthal Scott S Coggins Jay J Di Qian Q Brunekreef Bert B Frostad Joseph J Lim Stephen S SS Kan Haidong H Walker Katherine D KD Thurston George D GD Hayes Richard B RB Lim Chris C CC Turner Michelle C MC Jerrett Michael M Krewski Daniel D Gapstur Susan M SM Diver W Ryan WR Ostro Bart B Goldberg Debbie D Crouse Daniel L DL Martin Randall V RV Peters Paul P Pinault Lauren L Tjepkema Michael M van Donkelaar Aaron A Villeneuve Paul J PJ Miller Anthony B AB Yin Peng P Zhou Maigeng M Wang Lijun L Janssen Nicole A H NAH Marra Marten M Atkinson Richard W RW Tsang Hilda H Quoc Thach Thuan T Cannon John B JB Allen Ryan T RT Hart Jaime E JE Laden Francine F Cesaroni Giulia G Forastiere Francesco F Weinmayr Gudrun G Jaensch Andrea A Nagel Gabriele G Concin Hans H Spadaro Joseph V JV

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20180904 38

Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major global health concern. Quantitative estimates of attributable mortality are based on disease-specific hazard ratio models that incorporate risk information from multiple PM2.5 sources (outdoor and indoor air pollution from use of solid fuels and secondhand and active smoking), requiring assumptions about equivalent exposure and toxicity. We relax these contentious assumptions by constructing a PM2.5-m ...[more]

PMID: 30181279

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Project description:BACKGROUND: More than a decade of satellite observations offers global information about the trend and magnitude of human exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5). OBJECTIVE: In this study, we developed improved global exposure estimates of ambient PM2.5 mass and trend using PM2.5 concentrations inferred from multiple satellite instruments. METHODS: We combined three satellite-derived PM2.5 sources to produce global PM2.5 estimates at about 10 km × 10 km from 1998 through 2012. For each source, we related total column retrievals of aerosol optical depth to near-ground PM2.5 using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to represent local aerosol optical properties and vertical profiles. We collected 210 global ground-based PM2.5 observations from the literature to evaluate our satellite-based estimates with values measured in areas other than North America and Europe. RESULTS: We estimated that global population-weighted ambient PM2.5 concentrations increased 0.55 ?g/m3/year (95% CI: 0.43, 0.67) (2.1%/year; 95% CI: 1.6, 2.6) from 1998 through 2012. Increasing PM2.5 in some developing regions drove this global change, despite decreasing PM2.5 in some developed regions. The estimated proportion of the population of East Asia living above the World Health Organization (WHO) Interim Target-1 of 35 ?g/m3 increased from 51% in 1998-2000 to 70% in 2010-2012. In contrast, the North American proportion above the WHO Air Quality Guideline of 10 ?g/m3 fell from 62% in 1998-2000 to 19% in 2010-2012. We found significant agreement between satellite-derived estimates and ground-based measurements outside North America and Europe (r = 0.81; n = 210; slope = 0.68). The low bias in satellite-derived estimates suggests that true global concentrations could be even greater. CONCLUSIONS: Satellite observations provide insight into global long-term changes in ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Satellite-derived estimates and ground-based PM2.5 observations from this study are available for public use.

Dataset Information

Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter.

Publications

Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter.

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