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Hypothermia Outcome Prediction after Extracorporeal Life Support for Hypothermic Cardiac Arrest Patients: Assessing the Performance of the HOPE Score in Case Reports from the Literature.

ABSTRACT: Aims: The hypothermia outcome prediction after extracorporeal life support (ECLS) score, or HOPE score, provides an estimate of the survival probability in hypothermic cardiac arrest patients undergoing ECLS rewarming. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the HOPE score in case reports from the literature. Methods: Cases were identified through a systematic review of the literature. We included cases of hypothermic cardiac arrest patients rewarmed with ECLS and not included in the HOPE derivation and validation studies. We calculated the survival probability of each patient according to the HOPE score. Results: A total of 70 patients were included. Most of them (62/70 = 89%) survived. The discrimination using the HOPE score was good (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve = 0.78). The calibration was poor, with HOPE survival probabilities averaging 54%. Using a HOPE survival probability threshold of at least 10% as a decision criterion for rewarming a patient would have resulted in only five false positives and a single false negative, i.e., 64 (or 91%) correct decisions. Conclusions: In this highly selected sample, the HOPE score still had a good practical performance. The selection bias most likely explains the poor calibration found in the present study, with survivors being more often described in the literature than non-survivors. Our finding underscores the importance of working with a representative sample of patients when deriving and validating a score, as was the case in the HOPE studies that included only consecutive patients in order to minimize the risk of publication bias and lower the risk of overly optimistic outcomes.

SUBMITTER: Grin N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8622062 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Introduction: This systematic review and meta-analysis aims at comparing outcomes of rewarming after accidental hypothermic cardiac arrest (HCA) with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) or/and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). Material and Methods: Literature searches were limited to references with an abstract in English, French or German. Additionally, we searched reference lists of included papers. Primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge. We assessed neurological outcome, differences in relative risks (RR) of surviving, as related to the applied rewarming technique, sex, asphyxia, and witnessed or unwitnessed HCA. We calculated hypothermia outcome prediction probability score after extracorporeal life support (HOPE) in patients in whom we found individual data. P < 0.05 considered significant. Results: Twenty-three case observation studies comprising 464 patients were included in a meta-analysis comparing outcomes of rewarming with CPB or/and ECMO. One-hundred-and-seventy-two patients (37%) survived to hospital discharge, 76 of 245 (31%) after CPB and 96 of 219 (44 %) after ECMO; 87 and 75%, respectively, had good neurological outcomes. Overall chance of surviving was 41% higher (P = 0.005) with ECMO as compared with CPB. A man and a woman had 46% (P = 0.043) and 31% (P = 0.115) higher chance, respectively, of surviving with ECMO as compared with CPB. Avalanche victims had the lowest chance of surviving, followed by drowning and people losing consciousness in cold environments. Assessed by logistic regression, asphyxia, unwitnessed HCA, male sex, high initial body temperature, low pH and high serum potassium (s-K+) levels were associated with reduced chance of surviving. In patients displaying individual data, overall mean predictive surviving probability (HOPE score; n = 134) was 33.9 ± 33.6% with no significant difference between ECMO and CPB-treated patients. We also surveyed 80 case reports with 96 victims of HCA, who underwent resuscitation with CPB or ECMO, without including them in the meta-analysis. Conclusions: The chance of surviving was significantly higher after rewarming with ECMO, as compared to CPB, and in patients with witnessed compared to unwitnessed HCA. Avalanche victims had the lowest probability of surviving. Male sex, high initial body temperature, low pH, and high s-K+ were factors associated with low surviving chances.

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Hypothermia Outcome Prediction after Extracorporeal Life Support for Hypothermic Cardiac Arrest Patients: Assessing the Performance of the HOPE Score in Case Reports from the Literature.

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