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Rapid increase in dichloromethane emissions from China inferred through atmospheric observations.

ABSTRACT: With the successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, the atmospheric abundance of ozone-depleting substances continues to decrease slowly and the Antarctic ozone hole is showing signs of recovery. However, growing emissions of unregulated short-lived anthropogenic chlorocarbons are offsetting some of these gains. Here, we report an increase in emissions from China of the industrially produced chlorocarbon, dichloromethane (CH₂Cl₂). The emissions grew from 231 (213-245) Gg yr^-1 in 2011 to 628 (599-658) Gg yr^-1 in 2019, with an average annual increase of 13 (12-15) %, primarily from eastern China. The overall increase in CH₂Cl₂ emissions from China has the same magnitude as the global emission rise of 354 (281-427) Gg yr^-1 over the same period. If global CH₂Cl₂ emissions remain at 2019 levels, they could lead to a delay in Antarctic ozone recovery of around 5 years compared to a scenario with no CH₂Cl₂ emissions.

SUBMITTER: An M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8671471 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Rapid increase in dichloromethane emissions from China inferred through atmospheric observations.

An Minde M Western Luke M LM Say Daniel D Chen Liqu L Claxton Tom T Ganesan Anita L AL Hossaini Ryan R Krummel Paul B PB Manning Alistair J AJ Mühle Jens J O'Doherty Simon S Prinn Ronald G RG Weiss Ray F RF Young Dickon D Hu Jianxin J Yao Bo B Rigby Matthew M

Nature communications 20211214 1

With the successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, the atmospheric abundance of ozone-depleting substances continues to decrease slowly and the Antarctic ozone hole is showing signs of recovery. However, growing emissions of unregulated short-lived anthropogenic chlorocarbons are offsetting some of these gains. Here, we report an increase in emissions from China of the industrially produced chlorocarbon, dichloromethane (CH<sub>2</sub>Cl<sub>2 ...[more]

PMID: 34907196

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Project description:We developed a near-real-time estimation method for temporal changes in fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions from China for 3 months [January, February, March (JFM)] based on atmospheric CO2 and CH4 observations on Hateruma Island (HAT, 24.06° N, 123.81° E) and Yonaguni Island (YON, 24.47° N, 123.01° E), Japan. These two remote islands are in the downwind region of continental East Asia during winter because of the East Asian monsoon. Previous studies have revealed that monthly averages of synoptic-scale variability ratios of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 (ΔCO2/ΔCH4) observed at HAT and YON in JFM are sensitive to changes in continental emissions. From the analysis based on an atmospheric transport model with all components of CO2 and CH4 fluxes, we found that the ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratio was linearly related to the FFCO2/CH4 emission ratio in China because calculating the variability ratio canceled out the transport influences. Using the simulated linear relationship, we converted the observed ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios into FFCO2/CH4 emission ratios in China. The change rates of the emission ratios for 2020-2022 were calculated relative to those for the preceding 9-year period (2011-2019), during which relatively stable ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios were observed. These changes in the emission ratios can be read as FFCO2 emission changes under the assumption of no interannual variations in CH4 emissions and biospheric CO2 fluxes for JFM. The resulting average changes in the FFCO2 emissions in January, February, and March 2020 were 17 ± 8%, - 36 ± 7%, and - 12 ± 8%, respectively, (- 10 ± 9% for JFM overall) relative to 2011-2019. These results were generally consistent with previous estimates. The emission changes for January, February, and March were 18 ± 8%, - 2 ± 10%, and 29 ± 12%, respectively, in 2021 (15 ± 10% for JFM overall) and 20 ± 9%, - 3 ± 10%, and - 10 ± 9%, respectively, in 2022 (2 ± 9% for JFM overall). These results suggest that the FFCO2 emissions from China rebounded to the normal level or set a new high record in early 2021 after a reduction during the COVID-19 lockdown. In addition, the estimated reduction in March 2022 might be attributed to the influence of a new wave of COVID-19 infections in Shanghai.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40645-023-00542-6.

Dataset Information

Rapid increase in dichloromethane emissions from China inferred through atmospheric observations.

Publications

Rapid increase in dichloromethane emissions from China inferred through atmospheric observations.

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