Dataset Information

Increased risk of COVID-19-related admissions in patients with active solid organ cancer in the West Midlands region of the UK: a retrospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Susceptibility of patients with cancer to COVID-19 pneumonitis has been variable. We aim to quantify the risk of hospitalisation in patients with active cancer and use a machine learning algorithm (MLA) and traditional statistics to predict clinical outcomes and mortality.

Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting

A single UK district general hospital.

Participants

Data on total hospital admissions between March 2018 and June 2020, all active cancer diagnoses between March 2019 and June 2020 and clinical parameters of COVID-19-positive admissions between March 2020 and June 2020 were collected. 526 COVID-19 admissions without an active cancer diagnosis were compared with 87 COVID-19 admissions with an active cancer diagnosis.

Primary and secondary outcome measures

30-day and 90-day post-COVID-19 survival.

Results

In total, 613 patients were enrolled with male to female ratio of 1:6 and median age of 77 years. The estimated infection rate of COVID-19 was 87 of 22 729 (0.4%) in the patients with cancer and 526 of 404 379 (0.1%) in the population without cancer (OR of being hospitalised with COVID-19 if having cancer is 2.942671 (95% CI: 2.344522 to 3.693425); p<0.001). Survival was reduced in patients with cancer with COVID-19 at 90 days. R-Studio software determined the association between cancer status, COVID-19 and 90-day survival against variables using MLA. Multivariate analysis showed increases in age (OR 1.039 (95% CI: 1.020 to 1.057), p<0.001), urea (OR 1.005 (95% CI: 1.002 to 1.007), p<0.001) and C reactive protein (CRP) (OR 1.065 (95% CI: 1.016 to 1.116), p<0.008) are associated with greater 30-day and 90-day mortality. The MLA model examined the contribution of predictive variables for 90-day survival (area under the curve: 0.749); with transplant patients, age, male gender and diabetes mellitus being predictors of greater mortality.

Conclusions

Active cancer diagnosis has a threefold increase in risk of hospitalisation with COVID-19. Increased age, urea and CRP predict mortality in patients with cancer. MLA complements traditional statistical analysis in identifying prognostic variables for outcomes of COVID-19 infection in patients with cancer. This study provides proof of concept for MLA in risk prediction for COVID-19 in patients with cancer and should inform a redesign of cancer services to ensure safe delivery of cancer care.

SUBMITTER: Akingboye A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8671845 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundWe describe the identification of, and risk factors for, the single most prevalent Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain in the West Midlands region of the UK.Methodology/principal findingsProspective 15-locus MIRU-VNTR genotyping of all M. tuberculosis isolates in the West Midlands between 2004 and 2008 was undertaken. Two retrospective epidemiological investigations were also undertaken using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis. The first study of all TB patients in the West Midlands between 2004 and 2008 identified a single prevalent strain in each of the study years (total 155/3,056 (5%) isolates). This prevalent MIRU-VNTR profile (32333 2432515314 434443183) remained clustered after typing with an additional 9-loci MIRU-VNTR and spoligotyping. The majority of these patients (122/155, 79%) resided in three major cities located within a 40 km radius. From the apparent geographical restriction, we have named this the "Mercian" strain. A multivariate analysis of all TB patients in the West Midlands identified that infection with a Mercian strain was significantly associated with being UK-born (OR = ?9.03, 95%CI = 4.56-17.87, p<0.01), Black Caribbean (OR = 5.68, 95%CI = 2.96-10.91, p < 0.01) resident in Wolverhampton (OR = 9.29, 95%CI = 5.69-15.19, p < 0.01) and negatively associated with age >65 years old (OR = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.09-0.67, p < 0.01). A second more detailed investigation analyzed a cohort of 82 patients resident in Wolverhampton between 2003 and 2006. A significant association with being born in the UK remained after a multivariate analysis (OR = 9.68, 95% CI = 2.00-46.78, p < 0.01) and excess alcohol intake and cannabis use (OR = 6.26, 95%CI = 1.45-27.02, p =? .01) were observed as social risk factors for infection.Conclusions/significanceThe continued consistent presence of the Mercian strain suggests ongoing community transmission. Whilst significant associations have been found, there may be other common risk factors yet to be identified. Future investigations should focus on targeting the relevant risk groups and elucidating the biological factors that mediate continued transmission of this strain.

Project description:BackgroundMalaria is the leading cause of death worldwide. It is urgent to assess the impact of interventions and scaled-up control efforts. Despite reported reduction in malaria prevalence in Africa, the trends in Cameroon are not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to investigate the trends in malaria admissions among febrile patients seeking treatment over a seven-year period (2006-2012) in an endemic area in Cameroon, hypothesizing a declining trend. This period followed changes in malaria treatment policy. The objectives were to identify possible trends in malaria admissions and to evaluate the impact of changes to treatment guidelines on the prevalence.MethodsData was collected through consultation and perusal of laboratory and prescription registers of the Mbakong Health Centre. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS and SAS Statistics.ResultsAnalysis revealed that 4,230 febrile patients were received from 2006-2012. Of these febrile cases, 29.30% were confirmed positive. Between 2006 and 2012 confirmed malaria positive cases of those tested fluctuated, dropping from 53.21% in 2006 to 17.20% in 2008; then rising to 35.00% in 2011 and, finally, dropping to 18.2% of those tested in 2012. The prevalence in females and males across all age groups were similar: a slightly higher risk of males to have malaria (OR?=?1.08, 95% CI 0.94-1.25) were not practically significant. Of those tested, the 5 to?<?15 years and the 1 to?<?5 years age groups were the hardest hit by malaria in the area. A practically visible and significant association was observed between the age and gender with regards to the number of malaria positive results (Pearson ×2?=?153.675, p?<?0.00001, Cramer's V?=?0.352). Malaria prevalence exhibited a fluctuating yet declining trend, as observed over the 28 quarters between January, 2006 and December, 2012.ConclusionsThe changes to the treatment guidelines appear to result in a declining trend as was observed between 2006 and 2008. However, malaria admissions fluctuated between 2008 and 2012. There is, therefore, a need to step up control efforts of especially the vulnerable groups, such as the very young.

Project description:BackgroundIf UK healthcare services are to respond effectively to pandemic influenza, levels of absenteeism amongst healthcare workers (HCWs) must be minimised. Current estimates of the likelihood that HCWs will continue to attend work during a pandemic are subject to scientific and predictive uncertainty, yet an informed evidence base is needed if contingency plans addressing the issues of HCW absenteeism are to be prepared.MethodsThis paper reports the findings of a self-completed survey of randomly selected HCWs across three purposively sampled healthcare trusts in the West Midlands. The survey aimed to identify the factors positively or negatively associated with willingness to work during an influenza pandemic, and to evaluate the acceptability of potential interventions or changes to working practice to promote the continued presence at work of those otherwise unwilling or unable to attend. 'Likelihood' and 'persuadability' scores were calculated for each respondent according to indications of whether or not they were likely to work under different circumstances. Binary logistic regression was used to compute bivariate and multivariate odds ratios to evaluate the association of demographic variables and other respondent characteristics with the self-described likelihood of reporting to work.ResultsThe survey response rate was 34.4% (n = 1032). Results suggest absenteeism may be as high as 85% at any point during a pandemic, with potential absence particularly concentrated amongst nursing and ancillary workers (OR 0.3; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.7 and 0.5; 95% CI 0.2 to 0.9 respectively).ConclusionLevels of absenteeism amongst HCWs may be considerably higher than official estimates, with potential absence concentrated amongst certain groups of employees. Although interventions designed to minimise absenteeism should target HCWs with a low stated likelihood of working, members of these groups may also be the least receptive to such interventions. Changes to working conditions which reduce barriers to the ability to work may not address barriers linked to willingness to work, and may fail to overcome HCWs' reluctance to work in the face of what may still be deemed unacceptable risk to self and/or family.

Project description:ObjectiveWe aimed to examine the association between food and physical activity environments in primary schools and child anthropometric, healthy eating and physical activity measures.DesignObservational longitudinal study using data from a childhood obesity prevention trial.SettingState primary schools in the West Midlands region, UK.Participants1392 pupils who participated in the WAVES (West Midlands ActiVe lifestyle and healthy Eating in School children) childhood obesity prevention trial (2011-2015).Primary and secondary outcome measuresSchool environment (exposure) was categorised according to questionnaire responses indicating their support for healthy eating and/or physical activity. Child outcome measures, undertaken at three time points (ages 5-6, 7-8 and 8-9 years), included body mass index z-scores, dietary intake (using a 24-hour food ticklist) and physical activity (using an Actiheart monitor over 5?days). Associations between school food and physical activity environment categories and outcomes were explored through multilevel models.ResultsData were available for 1304 children (94% of the study sample). At age 8-9 years, children in 10 schools with healthy eating and physical activity-supportive environments had a higher physical activity energy expenditure than those in 22 schools with less supportive healthy eating/physical activity environments (mean difference=5.3?kJ/kg body weight/24?hours; p=0.05). Children in schools with supportive physical activity environments (n=8) had a lower body mass index z-score than those in schools with less supportive healthy eating/physical activity environments (n=22; mean difference=-0.17, p=0.02). School food and physical activity promoting environments were not significantly associated with dietary outcomes.ConclusionsSchool environments that support healthy food and physical activity behaviours may positively influence physical activity and childhood obesity.Trial registration numberISRCTN97000586.