Dataset Information

Development and validation of the nomogram based on INR and eGFR for estimation of mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

ABSTRACT:

Aims and objectives

Acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) is a critical clinical syndrome with a high short-term mortality evolved from chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related liver disease. Prediction of mortality risk and early intervention can improve the prognosis of patients. This study aimed to develop and validate the nomogram for short-time mortality estimation in ACHBLF patients defined according to Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL).

Methods

A study of 105 ACHBLF patients with 90-day follow up was performed to develop the nomogram. Patients were randomly assigned to derivation cohort (n = 75) and validation cohort (n = 35) according to 7:3. Concordance index (C-index), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the nomogram. We also compared the nomogram with APASL ACLF research consortium (AARC) score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, MELD with serum sodium (MELD-Na) score and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score. The nomogram was validated using an external cohort including 40 patients.

Results

The 28-day and 90-day mortality of 105 patients were respectively 49.52% and 55.24%. Albumin (ALB), international normalized ratio (INR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were independent predictors for 28-day mortality; INR and eGFR were independent predictors for 90-day mortality. C-index of Nomogram-1 for 28-day mortality and Nomogram-2 for 90-day mortality were respectively 0.82 and 0.81. Calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test (Nomogram-1, 0.323; Nomogram-2, 0.231) showed optimal agreement between observed and predicted death. Areas under receiver operator characteristic curve(AUROC) of Nomogram-1(0.772) and Nomogram-2(0.771) were larger compared with AARC, MELD, MELD-Na and ALBI score. The results were well estimated in the external validation cohort.

Conclusions

This study highlighted the predictive value of eGFR, and the nomogram based on INR and eGFR could effectively estimate individualized risk for short-term mortality of ACHBLF patients defined according to APASL.

SUBMITTER: Li S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8675499 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:To validate prognostic scores for acute decompensation of cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure in Brazilian patients.This is a prospective cohort study designed to assess the prognostic performance of the chronic liver failure-consortium (CLIF-C) acute decompensation score (CLIF-C AD) and CLIF-C acute-on-chronic liver failure score (CLIF-C ACLF), regarding 28-d and 90-d mortality, as well as to compare them to other prognostic models, such as Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD Sodium (MELD-Na), Child-Pugh (CP) score, and the CLIF-C Organ Failure score (CLIF-C OF). All participants were adults with acute decompensation of cirrhosis admitted to the Emergency Department of a tertiary hospital in southern Brazil. Prognostic performances were evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curves (AUC) and 95%CI.One hundred and thirteen cirrhotic patients were included. At admission, 18 patients had acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and 95 individuals had acute decompensation (AD) without ACLF, of which 24 eventually developed ACLF during the course of hospitalization (AD evolving to ACLF group). The AD group had significantly lower 28-d (9.0%) and 90-d (18.3%) mortality as compared to the AD evolving to ACLF group and to the ACLF group (both P < 0.001). On the other hand, 28-d and 90-d mortalities were not significantly different between AD evolving to ACLF group and ACLF group (P = 0.542 and P = 0.708, respectively). Among patients with ACLF, at 28 d from the diagnosis, CLIF-C ACLF was the only score able to predict mortality significantly better than the reference line, with an AUC (95%CI) of 0.71 (95%CI: 0.54-0.88, P = 0.021). Among patients with AD, all prognostic scores performed significantly better than the reference line regarding 28-d mortality, presenting with similar AUCs: CLIF-C AD score 0.75 (95%CI: 0.63-0.88), CP score 0.72 (95%CI: 0.59-0.85), MELD score 0.75 (95%CI: 0.61-0.90), MELD-Na score 0.76 (95%CI: 0.61-0.90), and CLIF-C OF score 0.74 (95%CI: 0.60-0.88). The same occurred concerning AUCs for 90-d mortality: CLIF-C AD score 0.70 (95%CI: 0.57-0.82), CP score 0.73 (95%CI: 0.62-0.84), MELD score 0.71 (95%CI: 0.59-0.83), MELD-Na score 0.73 (95%CI: 0.62-0.84), and CLIF-C OF score 0.65 (95%CI: 0.52-0.78).This study demonstrated that CLIF-C ACLF is the best available score for the prediction of 28-d mortality among patients with ACLF. CLIF-C AD score is also useful for the prediction of mortality among cirrhotic patients with AD not fulfilling diagnostic criteria for ACLF, but it was not superior to other well-established prognostic scores.

Project description:IntroductionBacterial infection is one of the most frequent complications in hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF), which leads to high mortality. However, a predictive model for bacterial infection in HBV-ACLF has not been well established. This study aimed to establish and validate a predictive model for bacterial infection in two independent patient cohorts.MethodsAdmission data from a prospective cohort of patients with HBV-ACLF without bacterial infection on admission was used for derivation. Bacterial infection development from day 3 to 7 of admission was captured. Independent predictors of bacterial infection development on multivariate logistic regression were used to develop the predictive model. External validation was performed on a separate retrospective cohort.ResultsA total of 377 patients were enrolled into the derivation cohort, including 88 patients (23.3%) who developed bacterial infection from day 3 to 7 of admission. On multivariate regression analysis, admission serum globulin (OR 0.862, 95% CI 0.822-0.904; P < 0.001), interleukin-6 (OR 1.023, 95% CI 1.006-1.040; P = 0.009), and C-reactive protein (OR 1.123, 95% CI 1.081-1.166; P < 0.001) levels were independent predictors for the bacterial infection development, which were adopted as parameters of the predictive model (GIC). In the derivation cohort, the area under the curve (AUC) of GIC was 0.861 (95% CI 0.821-0.902). A total of 230 patients were enrolled into the validation cohort, including 57 patients (24.8%) who developed bacterial infection from day 3 to 7 of admission, and the AUC of GIC was 0.836 (95% CI 0.782-0.881). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good calibration performance of the predictive model in the two cohorts (P = 0.199, P = 0.746). Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical utility of the predictive model.ConclusionGIC was established and validated for the prediction of bacterial infection development in HBV-ACLF, which may provide a potential auxiliary solution for the primary complication of HBV-ACLF.